Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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madisona said:
you realize that the property market is Ireland has become truly bizarre and totally ridiculous when someone thinks that they can get €55K for a house in O'Malley Park in Stabcity.

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Can't believe that! I paid €6,600 for my end of terrace house in O'Malley park back in 2002. The house was only recently refurbished with PVC windows and had gas fired heating put in, the cost of which must surely have exceeded the value of the property. The pensioner who lived in it was burgled 7 times in a year and had enough. We since fitted an alarm system, multiple locks and reinforced the doors and windows and not had a burgulary since. O'Malley Park is not nearly as bad as it used to be but €55,000 is a ridiculous price.
 
an equally salubrious address in Galway would cost you €245k with nightly views of the cars being burnt out etc . Limerick is such good value .

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I have been following DAFT for nearly 3 years and there is a massive jump this last few months. The below are Dublin houses for sale over the last few years. The below is just to illustrate what I have observed and are all approx. Take from what it you like. What I then to look at is not the comparison from year to year but from month to month especially 2006
For sale in Dublin
.
2004 >> April > 730. May > 850. June > 860. July > 900. Aug > 1030. Sept > 1100. Oct 1230
2005 >> April > 910. May > 860. June > 840. July > 750. Aug > 700. Sept > 730. Oct > 720
2006 >> April > 820. May > 1080. June > 1300. July > 1650. Aug > 2200.
 
Borderlord said:
I have been following DAFT for nearly 3 years and there is a massive jump this last few months. The below are Dublin houses for sale over the last few years. The below is just to illustrate what I have observed and are all approx. Take from what it you like. What I then to look at is not the comparison from year to year but from month to month especially 2006
For sale in Dublin
.
2004 >> April > 730. May > 850. June > 860. July > 900. Aug > 1030. Sept > 1100. Oct 1230
2005 >> April > 910. May > 860. June > 840. July > 750. Aug > 700. Sept > 730. Oct > 720
2006 >> April > 820. May > 1080. June > 1300. July > 1650. Aug > 2200.
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I am not sure what to make of the daft numbers but a house that i was watching that went sale agreed last week has been taken off so it does seem to reflect what is currently on the market.

From purely supply versus demand dynamics it is significant because if supply increases to meet demand and even exceeds it then it, by pure economics alone, will result in lower prices.

But what is telling is that sofar from posters here, and we must remind ourselves that it is a slow month, that it seems to be getting harder to sell. I also noted the increase in posts from 'savings and investments' inquiring about deposit accounts which may show a trend of holding onto cash.
 
I don't believe you can extract anything from daft regarding trends in house prices. The ONE thing that can certainly be extracted from daft is that it is becoming a more popular site than Myhome.ie..hence the increased vol.

An auctioneer told me lately that they never bothered to use daft but over the last couple of weeks or so, they cut a dela with daft & now have placed all of their properties on there.... so just becasue more & more individuals as well as auctioneers are going in that direction does not mean that the whole damn country is selling out.

(Then again I suppose, people will see only what they want to see & draw wrong conclusions.)

ninsaga
 
I agree re the daft figures. Look up Midleton, Co. Cork. A number of auctioneers have listed the same houses twice thereby distorting the number of houses for sale. The totals are irrelevant and we cannot possibly draw any conclusions from them.
 
ninsaga said:
The ONE thing that can certainly be extracted from daft is that it is becoming a more popular site than Myhome.ie..hence the increased vol.
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Would have to agree with this - HOK started using daft earlier in the year which boosted figures, probably additional agents making the same decision.
 
What about the inventory on Myhome.ie - is that also showing an increased number of houses for sale? If so then the stats might have relevance.

However, if daft.ie shows more houses for sale now than this time last year and myhome.ie shows roughly the same number of houses for sale as last year, then the increase is likely to be due to the increased popularity of daft.
 
I also notice that there are many sites for sale on daft.ie masquerading as houses. Not only that, but it seems like most site sellers are only chancing their arm.
 
As everyone knows I'm a complete bear.

Here are my speculative predictions to come about by December 2006:

* commuterland 1 bed flats - 40%
* commuterland 2+ bed flats - 30%
* inner M50 flats and commuterland houses - 25%
* city centre flats - 20%
* middle class suburbia 2 bed houses and townhouses (no management companies) - 15%
* middle class suburbia 3 and 4 bed semi-Ds (no management companies) - 10%

The above predictions are at a macro level. There will of course be micro-factors associated with particular sales in certain areas (embassy belt, seaside, Ballymun etc.).

Further depreciation to come in 2007 with commuterland being hardest hit - greater than 50% price reduction come summer time and a new government in place.

I stand to be corrected. See you all in December.
 
CelloPoint said:
As everyone knows I'm a complete bear.

Here are my speculative predictions to come about by December 2006:

* commuterland 1 bed flats - 40%
* commuterland 2+ bed flats - 30%
* inner M50 flats and commuterland houses - 25%
* city centre flats - 20%
* middle class suburbia 2 bed houses and townhouses (no management companies) - 15%
* middle class suburbia 3 and 4 bed semi-Ds (no management companies) - 10%

The above predictions are at a macro level. There will of course be micro-factors associated with particular sales in certain areas (embassy belt, seaside, Ballymun etc.).

Further depreciation to come in 2007 with commuterland being hardest hit - greater than 50% price reduction come summer time and a new government in place.

I stand to be corrected. See you all in December.
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I know i have been saying something simmilar to the above and i tend to agree somewhat with the above. You cant be as specific on across the board reductions although perhaps with more generic property you can.

I think though you have to factor in the lead time it takes to sell and unwilling sellers and nervous buyers. So whilst you may not see that 40% decrease in hard data, what you will see is property on the market where its 'true value' is 40% less asking price (some sellers will offload of course) .
 
I will predict a -20% minimum everywhere even in D4 embassy land and a fall of over 50% out in the Back of Ballivor type commuter places but this will all take up to three years to bottom out and will most assuredly not happen by December 2006 unless the ECB jacks by 25bp every montg from now on and a panic starts as well .

Property is 'sticky on the way down' with many threshholds to cross and pauses at certain steps which is why it will take quite a while to hit bottom.

The Irish bubble is not enormous enough by historic standards that it will go pop in 4 months, that sort of bubble is a 500% increase in a year such as this one
 
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