"If crypto is not the answer to our money problems, what is?" Good FT article

[Purple]

So the IMF has been knees deep in the developing world for an age.

Just on that; you do understand that's exactly what it was set up to do, right? It was established after the Second World War to help rebuild the global economy.
What has it achieved? It's helped lift more than 3 billion people out of absolute poverty in the last 30 years. It's success is nothing short of miraculous.

On the contention that Bitcoin has an intrinsic vale because it's held it's value when looked at in the longer term... that could be a reflection of the "greed x stupidity = bubble" equation.

 

[tecate]

Just on that; you do understand that's exactly what it was set up to do, right? It was established after the Second World War to help rebuild the global economy.
What has it achieved? It's helped lift more than 3 billion people out of absolute poverty in the last 30 years. It's success is nothing short of miraculous.

I'm well aware of its 'stated' aims and objectives. Which country in the developing world would you say is the IMFs standout success?

On the contention that Bitcoin has an intrinsic vale because it's held it's value when looked at in the longer term... that could be a reflection of the "greed x stupidity = bubble" equation.

I'm pretty sure I've been misquoted. I don't recall mentioning 'intrinsic value' insofar as I can remember over recent weeks. It's completely pointless to drag that up again as it's been discussed to death.

Now you say that bitcoin is in a bubble? Which bubble exactly? Is this bubble number 4 or 5? Can you remind me of what other asset has gone through a series of bubbles and then perished, never to be heard from again?
Greed and stupidity are not functions of this asset (or the assets pertaining to any other market either). That some actors might demonstrate those traits does not account for all actors and doesn't reflect badly on the asset itself.

Greed and stupidity are in evidence in every market - and have been since markets existed.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I'm well aware of its 'stated' aims and objectives. Which country in the developing world would you say is the IMFs standout success?

This is getting to be a tiresome "what have the Romans ever done for us?".
Hover over the countries in this map to see the extent of support from the IMF to developing countries.
Standout success? Are you looking for a comparable to what bitcoin was done for El Salvador?

 

[tecate]

This is getting to be a tiresome "what have the Romans ever done for us?".
Hover over the countries in this map to see the extent of support from the IMF to developing countries.
Standout success? Are you looking for a comparable to what bitcoin was done for El Salvador?

I agree it's tiresome given that you spent 3 posts responding to a very straightforward question with anything but an answer to it. You don't have to answer it if you don't want to Duke - or you simply can say that you don't know. You already went searching for an answer, came back and said what you've just said with this last post (the IMF has many member countries) and when probed further you said you weren't going to look it up. You demonstrated that you already had!

I agree that it's tiresome - so please don't respond to this unless of course you have an actual answer to the actual question.

I'm responding in the very unlikely event that I will have the last word.

It's never been a thing as far as I'm concerned. I've never once mentioned it in five years of discussion. If you want to post and that's the only purpose of your post, then you're welcome to your 'last word'!

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I agree it's tiresome given that you spent 3 posts responding to a very straightforward question with anything but an answer to it. You don't have to answer it if you don't want to Duke - or you simply can say that you don't know. You already went searching for an answer, came back and said what you've just said with this last post (the IMF has many member countries) and when probed further you said you weren't going to look it up. You demonstrated that you already had!

I agree that it's tiresome - so please don't respond to this unless of course you have an actual answer to the actual question.

I'm responding in the very unlikely event that I will have the last word.

 

[Purple]

I'm well aware of its 'stated' aims and objectives. Which country in the developing world would you say is the IMFs standout success?

What you are really talking about id the World Bank. Both it and the IMF were founded at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944. They have complimentary aims. There are countries that are no longer in the developing world that are stand out successes. If you want a specific example then look at South Korea.
The biggest criticism I would levy at it is that it is too socialist and so doesn't emphasise labour market and banking reforms that free us productive human and financial capital and so it has had limited success in recent decades. But we are off topic.

I'm pretty sure I've been misquoted. I don't recall mentioning 'intrinsic value' insofar as I can remember over recent weeks. It's completely pointless to drag that up again as it's been discussed to death.

I didn't say that you said that. It was a general point.

Now you say that bitcoin is in a bubble? Which bubble exactly? Is this bubble number 4 or 5? Can you remind me of what other asset has gone through a series of bubbles and then perished, never to be heard from again?

Who said it would never be heard from again?
The South Sea Bubble does seem similar though.

Greed and stupidity are not functions of this asset (or the assets pertaining to any other market either). That some actors might demonstrate those traits does not account for all actors and doesn't reflect badly on the asset itself.

Greed and stupidity are in evidence in every market - and have been since markets existed.

Greed and Stupidity, also knows as sentiment, are drivers in the appreciation and depreciation of every asset. The only variable is the extent to which they influence the change.

 

[tecate]

It's an organization that ships a lot of criticism for the lack of standout successes in the global south and for voting rights that are unequally distributed in favour of the US and its developed nation allies, with a resultant impact on the self serving nature of decision making.

Who said it would never be heard from again?
The South Sea Bubble does seem similar though.

From what I understand, the S. Sea Bubble played out as one neat boom n bust over the course of a year. In answer to your question, most here that have criticized Bitcoin bubbles have done so while putting forward the notion that it is in a bubble and it will decline and die. If you're saying the outcome is otherwise, fair enough.

Greed and Stupidity, also knows as sentiment, are drivers in the appreciation and depreciation of every asset. The only variable is the extent to which they influence the change.

Some may be more pronounced than others in that respect. Bitcoin has been a retail phenomenon so it makes sense that it should play out that way to a greater extent. However, it's interesting to note that the recent FTX shambles shows the idiocy of the big/professional money also. The likes of Sequoia and BlackRock and many others have been found to have carried out zero due diligence into what they were throwing money at.

 

[Purple]

It's an organization that ships a lot of criticism for the lack of standout successes in the global south and for voting rights that are unequally distributed in favour of the US and its developed nation allies, with a resultant impact on the self serving nature of decision making.

He who pays the piper calls the tune.

From what I understand, the S. Sea Bubble played out as one neat boom n bust over the course of a year. In answer to your question, most here that have criticized Bitcoin bubbles have done so while putting forward the notion that it is in a bubble and it will decline and die. If you're saying the outcome is otherwise, fair enough.

I don't know what the outcome will be but since few people understand what they are investing in it seems reasonable that their motivations are speculative.
I don't know if Bitcoin or any Crypto currency has an intrinsic value but I'm certain that the price it is currently trading at is not a reflection of any current intrinsic value.

Some may be more pronounced than others in that respect. Bitcoin has been a retail phenomenon so it makes sense that it should play out that way to a greater extent. However, it's interesting to note that the recent FTX shambles shows the idiocy of the big/professional money also. The likes of Sequoia and BlackRock and many others have been found to have carried out zero due diligence into what they were throwing money at.

Yep, when there's lots of money and no cost of credit we get bubbles.
Much like derivatives many driving investment decisions in Crypto don't understand the product they are investing in.

 

[tecate]

He who pays the piper calls the tune.

So the guys with the voting rights and the holders of most of the wealth optimize IMF decision making to benefit themselves.

I don't know what the outcome will be but since few people understand what they are investing in it seems reasonable that their motivations are speculative.
I don't know if Bitcoin or any Crypto currency has an intrinsic value but I'm certain that the price it is currently trading at is not a reflection of any current intrinsic value.

If you embrace the 'no intrinsic value' argument to its fullest extent then the only value you would place on Bitcoin is $0. That's your belief right?

Yep, when there's lots of money and no cost of credit we get bubbles.

Indeed. Can you point me to an asset that has gotten tangled up in a bubble that inflates and deflates but that has no intrinsic value? We have had many assets that have inflated and deflated but to my mind they've all had value one way or another - unless you can point me to one that hasn't?

Much like derivatives many driving investment decisions in Crypto don't understand the product they are investing in.

The 5 years of discussion here has centered on Bitcoin 95%+ of the time. It's important that the distinction is made and recognized that Bitcoin is not representative of what is termed as 'crypto'. That said, I agree with you that there has been a lack of understanding of what Bitcoin is. As this develops further it will move from being treated as a risk on asset to being treated as a risk off asset.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

This whole IMF sideshow highlights what I mean by cult. Bitcoin is seen as the saviour of those oppressed by international capitalism. You just wait and see El Salvador winning the next World Cup.

 

[tecate]

This whole IMF sideshow highlights what I mean by cult. Bitcoin is seen as the saviour of those oppressed by international capitalism. You just wait and see El Salvador winning the next World Cup.

Ah, I see. The IMF can take a free shot at Bitcoin but the IMF is not to be critiqued in any way. At least your consistent in that you've never once been open to acknowledging any failure of traditional finance or conventional economic systems. According to the Duke, it's simply not possible to improve in any way on what we have or to offer alternatives. Remind me again Duke why one third of the global population (and 70% of the Salvadoran population) is unbanked?

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Ah, I see. The IMF can take a free shot at Bitcoin but the IMF is not to be critiqued in any way. At least your consistent in that you've never once been open to acknowledging any failure of traditional finance or conventional economic systems. According to the Duke, it's simply not possible to improve in any way on what we have or to offer alternatives. Remind me again Duke why one third of the global population (and 70% of the Salvadoran population) is unbanked?

I suppose by constantly refuting the cult claim that bitcoin is the ultimate attainment in medium of exchange (limited supply, wow!) I do give the impression that existing systems are perfect. Not at all. They are constantly improving. You will hardly believe it but not so long ago our money had to be backed by some shiny metal. These days you just wave a small plastic card vaguely near some machine and your account is adjusted instantly. But I am sure there is room for improvement - but no, it will never be limited in supply.
As to your request for a reminder, let me ask you a question - "why is four fifths of the global population without a car?"

 

[tecate]

I suppose by constantly refuting the cult claim that bitcoin is the ultimate attainment in medium of exchange (limited supply, wow!)

Bad Faith argument No.1 - the suggestion that anyone who might ever have anything positive to say about Bitcoin is a 'cultist' - to include those that have participated in this discussion.
Bad Faith argument No.2 - the beyond exaggerated claims with this and nearly every other post. I could ask Duke to link to any post here where anyone has claimed Bitcoin to be 'the ultimate attainment in medium of exchange' - but I won't bother. We've covered this ground before. In your pen-ultimate post, you go on about 'Bitcoin being seen as the saviour of the oppressed from international capitalism'. Again, who here has claimed or even suggested such a thing? Additionally, Bitcoin attracts broad interest but to say that they're mixed up in a fight against 'capitalism' is laughable (when there's a large chunk of those folks who believe in nothing else but latent unadulterated capitalism) and just demonstrates that your own pet bias (I've seen yer Shinner posts) clouds your thinking.

I do give the impression that existing systems are perfect. Not at all. They are constantly improving.

Ok. 5 years of discussion here - link to the post where you've critiqued fiat currency, central banking and conventional banking/monetary/economic systems....because to my knowledge you've never referenced one shortcoming.

You will hardly believe it but not so long ago our money had to be backed by some shiny metal.

So you and others spent the first couple of years of this discussion going on about intrinsic value and then you come out with this? What you have nailed is that it's not so long ago - entirely the point. The real experiment here isn't Bitcoin - it's fiat money.

These days you just wave a small plastic card vaguely near some machine and your account is adjusted instantly.

Yes, it took forty years to get that adopted but I agree - it's a great innovation. I'm a big fan of the use of cards.
And I'm sure we will see greater use of cards in the future in places that embrace innovation.

As to your request for a reminder, let me ask you a question - "why is four fifths of the global population without a car?"

So your answer to those people is as follows: "You can't afford to run a car so you don't deserve to be banked. We know that you are being disadvantaged as its been proven that locking people out of the financial system means they have less opportunity but well, you can't afford to run a car so tough! Deal with it."

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

And I'm sure we will see greater use of cards in the future in places that embrace innovation.

The latest missive from Cult Central to cheer up the demoralised faithful.
So Brazil is introducing regulation of crypto. Just for clarification:

The invoice applies broadly to a sector which it calls “digital property,” and now solely wants the President’s signature earlier than it turns into legislation. It doesn’t make bitcoin or any cryptocurrency an authorized tender within the nation.

Apparently 7% of Brazilians own some crypto in their desperate attempts to seek an alternative to the Real (down 40% against the US$ in 5 years). It has reached a point where it needs regulation.
So my dear @tecate the Real and many, many other situations including indeed in recent times respectable currencies like our own are evidence of big weaknesses in our money system. These are possibly weaknesses of human behaviour itself, probably never to be fully eradicated. And it is indeed these weaknesses that spawned a desperate desire for a Messiah to bring salvation. The cult believes that Bitcoin is that Messiah with leading Prophets claiming it will not be long before it replaces the US$ as the World's reserve currency. We will all then bask in currency paradise, especially those currently oppressed by the IMF.
But just because you desperately want a Messiah does not mean that one will present itself.

 

[Purple]

So the guys with the voting rights and the holders of most of the wealth optimize IMF decision making to benefit themselves.

No.

If you embrace the 'no intrinsic value' argument to its fullest extent then the only value you would place on Bitcoin is $0. That's your belief right?

I don’t know what its intrinsic value is.

Indeed. Can you point me to an asset that has gotten tangled up in a bubble that inflates and deflates but that has no intrinsic value? We have had many assets that have inflated and deflated but to my mind they've all had value one way or another - unless you can point me to one that hasn't?

Tulips

The 5 years of discussion here has centered on Bitcoin 95%+ of the time. It's important that the distinction is made and recognized that Bitcoin is not representative of what is termed as 'crypto'. That said, I agree with you that there has been a lack of understanding of what Bitcoin is. As this develops further it will move from being treated as a risk on asset to being treated as a risk off asset.

I see no evidence to back up that claim.

 

[tecate]

No.

I disagree but heck, don't take my word for it:
“Let us remember that the main purpose of aid is not to help other nations but to help ourselves.”
Richard Nixon.

Tulips

Tulipmania equaled one boom n bust.

I see no evidence to back up that claim.

There's a wealth of evidence to back up that claim, not least of which is the drama that has played out in recent weeks. To conflate them all together without any distinction is lazy at best, self serving at worst.

The latest missive from Cult Central to cheer up the demoralised faithful.
So Brazil is introducing regulation of crypto. Just for clarification:

Apparently 7% of Brazilians own some crypto in their desperate attempts to seek an alternative to the Real (down 40% against the US$ in 5 years). It has reached a point where it needs regulation.
So my dear @tecate the Real and many, many other situations including indeed in recent times respectable currencies like our own are evidence of big weaknesses in our money system. These are possibly weaknesses of human behaviour itself, probably never to be fully eradicated. And it is indeed these weaknesses that spawned a desperate desire for a Messiah to bring salvation. The cult believes that Bitcoin is that Messiah with leading Prophets claiming it will not be long before it replaces the US$ as the World's reserve currency. We will all then bask in currency paradise, especially those currently oppressed by the IMF.
But just because you desperately want a Messiah does not mean that one will present itself.

A minute ago you told us that fiat money was an innovation - now you're dissing the Real. What gives? As for your 'respectable' currency, how did your 'respectable currency' find itself on the cliff edge of extinction a few short years ago? There's every possibility it will find itself there again.

If you really believe that those that are putting in the hard work behind bitcoin development and adoption are 'demoralised' right now, you have not done your homework. They actually think the very opposite - and recent events are providing the proof of the value of a properly decentralized digital asset.

And lastly, on the tract of text you've bolded out, nobody suggested that Bitcoin has been made legal tender in Brazil. However, the bill does facilitate and recognize it as a legitimate means of payment.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

A minute ago you told us that fiat money was an innovation - now you're dissing the Real. What gives?

Just disproving your earlier assertion that I have unquestioning faith in fiat in all its manifestations.

As for your 'respectable' currency, how did your 'respectable currency' find itself on the cliff edge of extinction a few short years ago? There's every possibility it will find itself there again.

In 1999 11 currencies which either were traditionally respectable or had recently attained respectability became extinct. They were replaced by the euro. The euro got near the position where it itself might have to be reversed into its predecessors. I wasn't particularly worried about the prospect. When bitcoin becomes effectively extinct a trillion $ "asset" will have gone up in smoke.

If you really believe that those that are putting in the hard work behind bitcoin development and adoption are 'demoralised' right now, you have not done your homework. They actually think the very opposite - and recent events are providing the proof of the value of a properly decentralized digital asset.

I will concede that I am surprised at the stability of bitcoin in the face of recent very strong crypto headwinds. I take your word that morale with the faithful is on a high.

And lastly, on the tract of text you've bolded out, nobody suggested that Bitcoin has been made legal tender in Brazil. However, the bill does facilitate and recognize it as a legitimate means of payment.

I was just clarifying for other listeners that this development is not in any way an endorsement of bitcoin by the Brazilian authorities, in the way that Bukele has positioned himself for canonisation by the faithful. Brazil is simply recognising that it needs to protect the 7% of its population that are now vulnerable to the scammers who abound in crypto space.

 

[Firefly]

The cult believes that Bitcoin is that Messiah with leading Prophets claiming it will not be long before it replaces the US$ as the World's reserve currency. We will all then bask in currency paradise, especially those currently oppressed by the IMF.
But just because you desperately want a Messiah does not mean that one will present itself.

My thoughts exactly. The fall of the dollar is the primary wish & desire here...

 

[Purple]

I disagree but heck, don't take my word for it:
“Let us remember that the main purpose of aid is not to help other nations but to help ourselves.”
Richard Nixon.

Are you aware of the context of the full quote? I suspect not.

Tulipmania equaled one boom n bust.

You asked for one.

 

[tecate]

Just disproving your earlier assertion that I have unquestioning faith in fiat in all its manifestations.

And yet you told us fiat was an innovation.

In 1999 11 currencies which either were traditionally respectable or had recently attained respectability became extinct. They were replaced by the euro. The euro got near the position where it itself might have to be reversed into its predecessors.

'Respectable'? Were the Drachma, Peseta, Lira and Escudo 'respectable' or they were included only so that ze Germans could sell more of their stuff into said markets?

I wasn't particularly worried about the prospect.

Well delighted to hear it Duke. However, that was not the consensus here on AAM. There were lads scrambling to open accounts in Berlin, Brussels n' Belfast on here!

When bitcoin becomes effectively extinct a trillion $ "asset" will have gone up in smoke.

The prophet marmalade has been making this prophecy for years now - and still not delivering. In fact, he can't even narrow it down to the nearest century if I recall correctly.
The euro has a far better chance of going bye-bye before Bitcoin ever does.

I take your word that morale with the faithful is on a high.

Serious and talented people building out this tech don't fit into your chosen stereotypical profile, Duke.

I was just clarifying for other listeners that this development is not in any way an endorsement of bitcoin by the Brazilian authorities, in the way that Bukele has positioned himself for canonisation by the faithful. Brazil is simply recognising that it needs to protect the 7% of its population that are now vulnerable to the scammers who abound in crypto space.

It means that any individual, business or corporation is free to utilize Bitcoin as a means of payment within Brazil without any hindrance from the state. That's all that's needed. It doesn't have to be legal tender.
Regulation is needed where the finance you espouse - centralized finance - is concerned.
As you well know, when it comes to Bukele, that's not the view that most people have taken. What Bukele does or doesn't do is neither here nor there. His actions may have made the road to adoption a tiny bit easier but Bitcoin isn't in any way under his control.

My thoughts exactly. The fall of the dollar is the primary wish & desire here...

Yes, of course - and in the gazillion posts on here over the past 5 years, you will be able to link to at least ONE post where someone expressed that wish & desire?????