Covid rates in different countries

Some factors...

Levels of testing ( are only symptomatic people tested or contacts?)

True levels of past cases especially in 2020

Possibility of exposure to a virus in the past that has actually given protection v covid OR some genetic inheritance along those lines which explains cases where one spouse gets it and not the other
 
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Hi odyssey

Interesting points.

Let's look at the true underlying level of Covid as distinct from variations due to variations in the testing regime.

Past levels of Covid giving immunity now
Italy seemed to be on the verge of collapse last year. And so maybe their cumulative level of Covid is moving them towards herd immunity.

Has Ireland had a lower cumulative rate? Which means we have less natural immunity.

Levels of TB vaccination in the population
Was there some report that countries with a greater level of TB vaccination were less susceptible to Covid?

Levels of restrictions/ mask wearing
We seem to be back to normal levels of socialising in Ireland and Europe generally. I am staying out of packed pubs, but I believe that a lot of the pubs are packed.

Increased levels of indoor socialising
The southern European countries seem to have lower rates. Are they still eating and drinking outside. In Northern Europe we can't really eat and drink outside.

Vaccination rates and waning of immunity due to early vaccination
Ireland was successful in getting high levels of vaccination comparatively early. So maybe the immunity is waning now. Wasn't Israel ahead of the curve on early vaccination and then got another wave by surprise as immunity reduced.

Level of boosters
Not sure where we are in Ireland compared to other countries.
 
The United States figure is surprisingly low at 203 per 100,000.

Haven't they a low vaccination rate or maybe it's just a very loud and aggressive anti-vax campaign?

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
The United States figure is surprisingly low at 203 per 100,000.

Haven't they a low vaccination rate or maybe it's just a very loud and aggressive anti-vax campaign?

Brendan
Click to expand...
They have something like 60% on average vaccinated, higher in coastal states, lower in the deep south.

Given their previous high case numbers and the lack of restrictions in many states (such as Florida) since summer I think there's a possibility a lot of the unvaccinated today are infected and recovered.

Whereas in Ireland, we are coming into winter and the virus is still making its way through the unvaccinated.
 
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Brendan Burgess said:
Hi odyssey

Interesting points.

Let's look at the true underlying level of Covid as distinct from variations due to variations in the testing regime.

Past levels of Covid giving immunity now
Italy seemed to be on the verge of collapse last year. And so maybe their cumulative level of Covid is moving them towards herd immunity.

Has Ireland had a lower cumulative rate? Which means we have less natural immunity.

Levels of TB vaccination in the population
Was there some report that countries with a greater level of TB vaccination were less susceptible to Covid?

Levels of restrictions/ mask wearing
We seem to be back to normal levels of socialising in Ireland and Europe generally. I am staying out of packed pubs, but I believe that a lot of the pubs are packed.

Increased levels of indoor socialising
The southern European countries seem to have lower rates. Are they still eating and drinking outside. In Northern Europe we can't really eat and drink outside.

Vaccination rates and waning of immunity due to early vaccination
Ireland was successful in getting high levels of vaccination comparatively early. So maybe the immunity is waning now. Wasn't Israel ahead of the curve on early vaccination and then got another wave by surprise as immunity reduced.

Level of boosters
Not sure where we are in Ireland compared to other countries.
Click to expand...
I'd say it's a combination of all the above and other reasons.
I think we have become complacent and there was an expectation, despite the facts, that once you were vaccinated you could return to " normal " life, and many did.

When one looks back since March 2020 the population had rowed in behind what needed to be done to try and control the virus, but now that's all forgotten and this will make the situation more difficult.

The "vox pops" that are being sent out by some, for example, " when should have nationalised private hospitals", or we should "have increased ICU beds" and loads more , simply emboldens people to simply blame the government and justify their actions.

People say the messaging from Government is contradictory, perhaps there has been instances when that happened, but the message was/is simple, continue with good health practices and the booster will help but its certainly not going to be the panacea .

Austrian PM yesterday said something like " you have rights but you also have responsibilities to your fellow citizens " .

Finally I doubt we will ever fully understand why we are where we are, due to insufficient data analysis or lack of political will.
 
odyssey06 said:
They have something like 60% on average vaccinated, higher in coastal states, lower in the deep south.

Given their previous high case numbers and the lack of restrictions in many states (such as Florida) since summer I think there's a possibility a lot of the unvaccinated today are infected and recovered.
Click to expand...
I doubt if all States are reporting accurately either.
 
I remember reading the theory - about childhood TB (BCG) vaccine explaining some of the differences between countries, however this Canadian study found no link.
www.newswise.com

COVID-19: Does having received the BCG vaccine as a child provide a protective effect?

Being vaccinated during childhood with the BCG (Bacille Calmette-Guérin) vaccine against tuberculosis is not a long-term protective factor against COVID-19, de
www.newswise.com www.newswise.com

Other trials indicate that a recent BCG vaccination 'boosts' the immune system and affords some protection against severe covid, however this is unlikely to account for any significant differences between countries.
www.frontiersin.org

Frontiers | The BCG Vaccine for COVID-19: First Verdict and Future Directions

Despite of the rapid development of the vaccines against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it will take several months to hav...
www.frontiersin.org www.frontiersin.org
 
Brendan Burgess said:
There is no rhyme nor reason to it
Click to expand...
Comparative figures would be statistically meaningful only if there was random testing following the same protocol and methodology in every country, but there isn't. There is also some crowd psychology at work. Since testing is generally speaking non-random, increases in actual Covid percentages in a given country are amplified by a greater number of people getting worried and getting themselves tested as a result. The more tests, the greater the number of detected Covid cases.
 
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Brendan Burgess said:
The United States figure is surprisingly low at 203 per 100,000.

Haven't they a low vaccination rate or maybe it's just a very loud and aggressive anti-vax campaign?

Brendan
Click to expand...

I think you have to differentiate between current rates and the cumulative total. US has had 146k per million total cases, UK is at 145k. Ireland is 107k. Similar impact on deaths per million; US = 2,386, UK = 2,108 and Ireland = 1,119 (usual note - measurement methodologies vary between countries) (Source : Worldometer)

So current run rate is lower in US and UK - but historically they had allowed it rip through the population
 
odyssey06 said:
This tweet attempts to assess the impact of the winter surge of covid, hospital admissions v population vaccinated or who have had covid



https://twitter.com/x/status/1463450316045791241
Click to expand...
I'll have to sit down with a tea to see if that is what has happened. I know last week the BBC devoted a bit of time to this and the tweet seems to align with what was said.

In essence, they are saying opening earlier and having the vaccines preventing serious illness , the increase in infection has protected them from the European surge.

However, hospitals all over the UK are at crisis point, most have postponed surgeries and, Staff are on their knees with admissions , even the term "running hot" was used by one of the senior advisers.

This doesn't make sense, to me , anyway.

Apparently this analysis is for England alone
 
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EmmDee said:
US has had 146k per million total cases, UK is at 145k. Ireland is 107k.
Click to expand...

That is very interesting
So 15% of Americans and 15% of Brits have had Covid , while only 11% of Irish have had it.

That would account for some but not much of the current rate of infection.

Ireland has 639 cases per 100,000 in the last week

The UK has 433 per 100,000

The United states has 203

I would think that if 50% of country A have had Covid compared to 5% in Country B, then the current rate of infection could be very different. But a 4% difference in cumulative rate wouldn't be that significant.

Brendan
 
Ireland was exposed to the Delta variant much earlier than all other European Countries because of our proximity to the UK. We were always going to see higher numbers earlier than European neighbours. Other countries are seeing the same surge but might be able to prevent getting as bad as us through the earlier introduction of restrictions. We completely opened up Ireland when we had a significant number of delta variant cases.
The US is also behind us on the curve but it is very hard to talk about the US as one entity as the differences between States are too vast. NY is beginning to see rising numbers and have a lower vaccination rate than us so it will be interesting to see. One thing they have done better than us is vaccinate young people more quickly and have made boosters widely available. Anyone over 18 and received Pfizer at least 6 months ago or J&J two months ago can get a booster. Will be interesting to see.

I would have thought the UK are running out of people to get covid but its hard to know. I don't think they even have a strategy anymore other than telling each other how much better than Europe they are doing....
 
Age profile, general health and particularly obesity levels will also have an impact on hospitalisation and death rates per head per country.
 
odyssey06 said:
This tweet attempts to assess the impact of the winter surge of covid, hospital admissions v population vaccinated or who have had covid



https://twitter.com/x/status/1463450316045791241
Click to expand...
I had a look at this from the information I could glean from various sources.

While the UK did have a spike in cases in July its death rate was low, under 50 for a number of weeks.
But the 7 day average swung between 42 and 49k, this is similar to the situation now with a 7 day average of 43k with occasional jumps to 45,46,47k in daily numbers.
Also deaths are significantly up on July, July ended with a 7 day average of 70 deaths this week that number is 140 and has been as high as 170 plus .

So, while the UK may not be experiencing a surge like Europe they have been consistently reporting high case numbers, in January the 7 day average was 55 to 60k at the peak.

The UK news channels are reporting daily the pressure the NHS is under, with ERs full of people including Covid-19 and some treatments being done in car parks of hospitals.

It's a very curious tweet, given the facts of the numbers that are reported.
 
odyssey06 said:
This tweet attempts to assess the impact of the winter surge of covid, hospital admissions v population vaccinated or who have had covid



https://twitter.com/x/status/1463450316045791241
Click to expand...
Within 2 weeks of this Tweet being released the UK has recorded its highest weekly number of cases since last January. The figure is 337000.

Additionally most experts are now saying that its probably higher as Omicorn is in the community and isn't being identified.

From memory, approximately 500 cases have been officially identified with some saying the figure is 4 times that with transmission doubling every 2 days.
 
Well for all the bluster,jingoism and tweets that really nobody would believe by the UK government and its agencies they will be implementing restrictions that very much mirror what we have in place now.

My post above said that it was believed that the Omicron variant was 4 times the official figure, tonight's C4 news mentioned that the figure is closer to 10,000 with Hospitals already under severe pressure.

Our government is far from perfect but the Tories and in particular Boris is really in a different league of ineptitude.
 
France recorded almost 60000 cases yesterday bringing the health minister to suggest a fourth vaccine. This was reported on the BBC website, where they have rolling stories and its impossible to link to.

The Delta variant is still the dominant variant, but cases are soaring all around Europe even if deaths don't spike, Health Services are only going to deal with Covid-19 which will open another pandora box.
 
odyssey06 said:
This tweet attempts to assess the impact of the winter surge of covid, hospital admissions v population vaccinated or who have had covid



https://twitter.com/x/status/1463450316045791241
Click to expand...
Sorry everyone but I'll keep refuting this.

Apparently Boris is addressing the UK/ England at 8pm tonight and of their 5 tiers , 5 being full lockdown , they are moving to tier 4 on the advice of Sage etc.

When one sits with a pint and have no distractions other than your own thoughts, its clear that no matter what is done by way of vaccines or good health advice, the issue is us.

We spread this virus, nobody else, and if we want rid of it , we need to start doing the right thing.
 
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