Effect of the vaccines

S

SGWidow

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Probably very, very basic questions - but here goes

When someone get vaccinated...….

1. He can still get Covid?
2. He just won't get ill?
3. He will be asymptomatic?
4. He is still contagious?

Does this mean that when the population is 50% vaccinated that there will be a whole pile of contagious people merrily walking around and potentially and unknowingly infecting others?
 
SGWidow said:
Probably very, very basic questions - but here goes

When someone get vaccinated...….

1. He can still get Covid?
2. He just won't get ill?
3. He will be asymptomatic?
4. He is still contagious?

Does this mean that when the population is 50% vaccinated that there will be a whole pile of contagious people merrily walking around and potentially and unknowingly infecting others?
Click to expand...
1. He can still get Covid? In theory he can.
2. He just won't get ill? There is a much lower change that he will get ill
3. He will be asymptomatic? Most likely
4. He is still contagious? Much less so.

Does this mean that when the population is 50% vaccinated that there will be a whole pile of contagious people merrily walking around and potentially and unknowingly infecting others?
The purpose of the vaccine and other restrictions is to get the R number well below 1.
Children under the age of 10 don't need to get vaccinated. They are half as likely to get the virus and if they do they are half as likely to pass it on. Therefore their R number is one quarter that of adults.
Those between 10 and 18 probably shouldn't get vaccinated either. They are generally more susceptible to side effects from vaccines and their statistical chance of becoming very ill of dying is almost zero. Since they are generally asymptomatic they are less likely to infect other people.
Those in high risk groups who cannot take the vaccine should continue to self isolate even as the vaccination levels reach 50% of the population.

Therefore if we have vaccinated 50% of the population we will be well on the way to ending this as a public health emergency.
 
Hi SG

Good questions. I caught the end of a guy on BBC Radio 4 this morning dealing with some of these issues.

It wasn't clear to me (and him?) whether the vaccine
1) Prevented the person from becoming infected and infectious
or
2) It just prevented them from becoming sick after becoming infected.

I think that the research shows that the person probably does not become infected and therefore does not become infectious.

It might be the same for a natural infection. Does that prevent the person from becoming infected again or does it just prevent them from being sick?

The expert concluded that natural infection would not result in herd immunity but that vaccination of enough people probably would.

Brendan
 
Thanks for the reply, Purple - and apologies Brendan, just saw your post when finished mine!!

Here's the, perhaps mistaken, background to the question.

I heard more than one public health expert explain that the reason that NH residents are being given priority is because they are the most vulnerable and thereby most susceptible to getting seriously ill and that whilst the vaccine prevents serious illness, it does not prevent transmission.

If, the explanation continued, the vaccine prevented people from spreading the virus, there would be an argument for telling the cocooners to continue cocooning and transfer the priority to the "real economy", the "out and about" folk!

I can find one of these clips (probably) if necessary....
 
5227


www.fda.gov

Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine Frequently Asked Questions

Frequently asked questions on the emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine
www.fda.gov www.fda.gov
 
Thanks Brendan,

So. for the avoidance of doubt, the answer to the initial question of

4. He is still contagious?...……..is not "much less so" as our esteemed colleague said but more like "it is hoped that this is the case, based on the experience with other vaccines, but we don't know yet."

Given this, my original central question, repeated below, still holds. What's curious is that I have heard very little commentary on this and I have been listening to a lot of radio over the last week or so.

Does this mean that when the population is 50% vaccinated that there will be a whole pile of contagious people merrily walking around and potentially and unknowingly infecting others?
 
SGWidow said:
4. He is still contagious?...……..is not "much less so" as our esteemed colleague said but more like "it is hoped that this is the case, based on the experience with other vaccines, but we don't know yet."
Click to expand...
Based on all previous vaccines, particularly those for respiratory illnesses, that answer is "much less so".
As this is a new disease we won't know yet but there's no reason to believe that it will be any different. The the various vaccines effectiveness is well over 90% it is more likely to be the case.
That doesn't mean vaccinated people shouldn't continue to observe guidelines; even if you carry the virus internally it could still be on your hands or clothes and you could pass it on that way.
 
SGWidow said:
Does this mean that when the population is 50% vaccinated that there will be a whole pile of contagious people merrily walking around and potentially and unknowingly infecting others?
Click to expand...
There is a flaw in the logic of your question. The advice remains that people should continue to exercise social distancing, mask wearing, hand washing, etc.
In order for (unvaccinated presumably) people to be at risk of infection from the vaccinated people you describe, they would have to be putting themselves at risk of infection.
 
That really is the key point - people should not rely on herd immunity or on other people getting the vaccine.

They should get it themselves.

Until you get the vaccine, you should treat everyone else as a source of infection and keep your distance.

Brendan
 
Purple said:
4. He is still contagious? Much less so.
Click to expand...
Purple said:
Children under the age of 10 don't need to get vaccinated. They are half as likely to get the virus and if they do they are half as likely to pass it on. Therefore their R number is one quarter that of adults.
Click to expand...
Purple said:
Since they are generally asymptomatic they are less likely to infect other people.
Click to expand...

These are important claims. Can you provide a source for them?
 
Cricketer said:
Thanks, that's interesting. I'm very struck by your certainty in relation to all of this.
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I just look at the available facts and form views based on what I consider to be the balance of probability. There's enough emotion and fear out there. The median mortality age is in the mid 80's and 93% of those who have died had preexisting conditions.
 
SGWidow said:
I respectfully disagree with the last two posts.
Click to expand...
Vaccines do not eliminate viruses they simply suppress them while protecting the individual of suffering from the effects of having the virus.

The virus remains albeit with less ways of spreading and causing health issues including death.
If you are vaccinated successfully and come in contact with someone who is carrying the virus they might still pass on the virus but your immune system will not allow the virus to make you sick.

Vaccinated people passing on the virus is largely unknown now.

Fauci in the USA believes that we might need an immunity level as high as 80% .

More data will help solve these conundrums but thats going to take a long time.
 
Purple said:
I just look at the available facts and form views based on what I consider to be the balance of probability. There's enough emotion and fear out there. The median mortality age is in the mid 80's and 93% of those who have died had preexisting conditions.
Click to expand...
I agree, but of course it's not really about your or my risk of dying from the virus. It's about the risk of so many people presenting at hospitals that - bad enough the vulnerable should die prematurely - but that those who are next in line could also be at risk. The reality is that altruistic behaviour in that regard can and does happen, but behavioural science tells us that real behaviour change happens when people are fearful.
 
Cricketer said:
I agree, but of course it's not really about your or my risk of dying from the virus. It's about the risk of so many people presenting at hospitals that - bad enough the vulnerable should die prematurely - but that those who are next in line could also be at risk. The reality is that altruistic behaviour in that regard can and does happen, but behavioural science tells us that real behaviour change happens when people are fearful.
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Indeed; people are reasonable and logical, the mob is stupid and emotional.
We should do what we can and do what we should to protect those around us but we should try to avoid surrendering to fear and emotion. They are the enemy of reason.
 
Paul O Mahoney said:
Vaccinated people passing on the virus is largely unknown now.
Click to expand...

Thanks Paul

This is not what the notice that Brendan posted said.

It is also not the mindset that was adopted when formulating public policy regarding the vaccine rollout.

Here's what Professor Karina Butler had to say - the relevant bit starts just after 3 minutes.

Certain posters seem to disagree with the good professor's circumspection - maybe they know more than her?;)

Today with Claire Byrne (rte.ie)
 
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