Brendan Burgess
Founder
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It takes about 19 days on average from infection to death.
We introduced restrictions on 24 March, so the spread should have been slowed down as that was 22 days ago.
We went into lockdown on 27 March , which was 19 days ago.
So the underlying true rate of infection should have slowed down, should it not?
Were there not more people infected on one day, 29 days ago than 19 days ago?
A confounding factor would be the care homes.
The rate of deaths in the community excluding care homes, could well have fallen dramatically, but these would be obscured by a rise in deaths in care homes, where the lockdown wouldn't have had much impact.
Brendan
We introduced restrictions on 24 March, so the spread should have been slowed down as that was 22 days ago.
We went into lockdown on 27 March , which was 19 days ago.
So the underlying true rate of infection should have slowed down, should it not?
Were there not more people infected on one day, 29 days ago than 19 days ago?
A confounding factor would be the care homes.
The rate of deaths in the community excluding care homes, could well have fallen dramatically, but these would be obscured by a rise in deaths in care homes, where the lockdown wouldn't have had much impact.
Brendan