Just to clarify why I think the NAMA plan is likely to become unfeasible if the receiver were called in on Carroll's companies. No bank will sell its loans to NAMA at true market value. The market value of a loan depends on a combination of the solvency of the debtor and the value of the collateral securing the loan. A receiver driven fire sale of Carroll's development land would establish a market value for the latter (which seems in Carroll's case to be somewhere between 25% and perhaps 40% of the value of the loans). Assuming cash flow problems with the big developers (a reasonable assumption), the market value of the collateral establishes the floor for the market value of the loans. The banks cannot sell their loans at even 50% of their value as they would quickly become insolvent. The other option, for NAMA to pay two to three times the market value of the loans is not a runner either given that the entire venture is going to be backed by a massive government bond issue which will have to be reviewed by the EU and the ECB since the purpose is for the bonds to be turned into cash for the banks using repo with the ECB, I simply cannot see how it would be given the green light.
The government''s rush to get NAMA up and going as fast as possible is motivated by a recognition of this danger.
In my opinion, Yes AND No.
I believe you are right as to what the Received would mean to the Carroll empire.
I disagree wrt the latter half of your post.
Let's say the Supreme Court do uphold the High Court's decision, I think it could be a tipping point into an Iceland situation very quickly.
If you look baldly at what FF are trying to do, they are engineering (through NAMA) a way that the developers' bad debts will be absorbed by NAMA, allowing the banks to flourish but it means that the taxpayer will have to pay for the difference between the Loan value and the ultimate selling price, plus the interest on that Loan value until it is settled. They can pretty it up all the want but that is the reality.
Lenihan is currently giving us the bullcrap patter about seeing a return, and there is probably a fair percentage of the Irish people who are at least entertaining the idea, BUT if Carroll goes, and the ACC salvage what they can, the mask will have to drop. I don't think they can really allow the banks to fail and at that point they will plough on regardless but the charade will be clear for all to see.
The EU/ECB will not allow Ireland to collapse.
As for the government rushing...the legislation won't be enacted until sometime in September ! If Carroll goes under next week, that could be that. Maybe Lenihan could nationalise ACC over the weekend and stop the court case !