Private tenancies fell by 22k (7%) in 2021 (probably)

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NoRegretsCoyote

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The RTB seems to have given up publishing quarterly statistics on the number of tenancies for reasons I can't fathom. The last available on the website is for Q42020 here.

Anyway, the RTB annual report was published last week and on page 34 you can find a table with an estimate of tenancies for end-2021. The media doesn't seem to have picked up on the number of private tenancies included in the Report and it wasn't in the press release.

Anyway here's the number of private tenancies for each year since 2017. As you can see it has fallen every year with the pace really picking up in 2021.

Year20172018201920202021
Private tenancies313,002307,348 303,023297,837276,223**

This means nearly 22,000 fewer private tenancies at the end of 2021 than at the end of 2020, a fall of about 7% in one year.

Finally, the 2021 number is heavily caveated: "** The registration figure is an estimation and has been developed using existing RTB data available to identify the estimated number of tenancies that would have been removed or renewed on the RTB Register in 2021, had the changes to the length of part 4 tenancies not been introduced."
 
That’s a fall in the number of registered private tenancies of nearly 12% since the RPZ regime was introduced.

And, as you say, the pace of the landlord exodus appears to be increasing.
 
Sarenco said:
That’s a fall in the number of registered private tenancies of nearly 12% since the RPZ regime was introduced.
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And that's just to end-2021........

There was €3bn of mortgage drawdowns in Q2 2022, up 41% on same period previous year. A tiny 1.1% of this mortgage lending was for BTLs.

It seems the trend of rental stock being converted to PPRs is continuing apace in 2022.
 
Based on those figures, 1 in 8 tenancies have gone in 5 years even with huge investment by the BTR sector
 
It’s particularly scary given the fact that we have had population growth of 361k (including net migration of 190k) since 2016, per the CSO.
 
Shouldn't the number of properties available only for short-term lets be factored into this?
I'd say there are many LL's that have abandoned the long term rental market and moved over to AirBnB.
 
jman0war said:
I'd say there are many LL's that have abandoned the long term rental market and moved over to AirBnB.
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It's no doubt a factor in areas where tourist and residential properties are substitutes like D8.

But very few tourists go to places like Portlaoise and not many people want to stay in Courtown all winter.

Landlording and short-term letting are very different businesses and you wouldn't casually switch between them. Having a property turn over 30 or 40 times a year with cleaning and new bedding is completely different from a long-term tenant who pays the rent and generally leaves you alone.
 
NoRegretsCoyote said:
It's no doubt a factor in areas where tourist and residential properties are substitutes like D8.

But very few tourists go to places like Portlaoise and not many people want to stay in Courtown all winter.

Landlording and short-term letting are very different businesses and you wouldn't casually switch between them. Having a property turn over 30 or 40 times a year with cleaning and new bedding is completely different from a long-term tenant who pays the rent and generally leaves you alone.
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Cabinet approves new short-term let register aiming to bring 12,000 properties back into use​

A NEW SHORT-TERM let register has been approved by the government with expectations that it could bring some 12,000 properties back into long-term use.
At the time of writing according to Inside Airbnb, a third party website that scrapes data from Airbnb, there are 16,181 entire properties listed on Airbnb in Ireland compared to 1,376 properties listed for rent on Daft.ie.
Link: https://www.thejournal.ie/new-short-term-let-register-5939400-Dec2022/

This suggests that the government also believes that long term lets have switched to short term lets, and they are cracking down on it to try and force them back.
 
jman0war said:

Cabinet approves new short-term let register aiming to bring 12,000 properties back into use​

A NEW SHORT-TERM let register has been approved by the government with expectations that it could bring some 12,000 properties back into long-term use.
At the time of writing according to Inside Airbnb, a third party website that scrapes data from Airbnb, there are 16,181 entire properties listed on Airbnb in Ireland compared to 1,376 properties listed for rent on Daft.ie.
Link: https://www.thejournal.ie/new-short-term-let-register-5939400-Dec2022/

This suggests that the government also believes that long term lets have switched to short term lets, and they are cracking down on it to try and force them back.
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Be interesting to see how many it does actually bring back into use. There must be a decent chunk of these are holiday homes which will now just lie idle for large parts of the year, or possibly get sold. Others will now just see this as the right time to sell up. They will also need to ensure it gets enforced, otherwise a lot of people will take their chances and plead ignorance.
I would have my doubts that it will bring anywhere near 12,000 rental properties back to the long term rental market. If it does bring anywhere near that, I'm pretty sure we will be hearing about it, if not, information may not be as easy to come across
 
Rasputin said:
There must be a decent chunk of these are holiday homes which will now just lie idle for large parts of the year, or possibly get sold.
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Holiday homes will be a minority, there's been lots of coverage on the distribution of these and how many are in and around the major population centres not typically associated with holiday homes.
 
The RTB has statistics out for the third quarter of 2022.

Seamus Coffey has a useful chart on what is driving it, see below.

By far and away it is landlords selling up.

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That seems like a massive spike in Q3 22, what could explain that spike in a quarter when the government announced an eviction ban?
Did they spark a massive rush for the exit with their policy?
 
I see, the drop in the number of private tenancies from 2020-2021 in the table above seems to be about 20,000 so actually 5,000 in Q3 '22 isn't a big jump on that rate. It had been going on for quite a while prior to the eviction ban discussion. It will be interesting to see the figures in Q4 and Q1/Q2 '23. People could still issue notices I presume but had to delay the dates, so they would still show up in the notice figures.

Edit: maybe they already are monitoring these figures and they fed into the decision not to extend the ban.
 
There's also an election clock ticking. Which also means some LLs are going for the exit before that happens. The spectre of an election has the govt paralysed with indecision.
 
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