Prime Time - Boom to Bust - Preview

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Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust

The April Live Register figures are out tomorrow. Unfortunately this is the only growth you are going to see in Ireland this year.
 
Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust

@JohnRambo - Your logic is so ill it is astounding, I do hope that it doesn't influence anyone.

There are so many agencies at fault for the oversupply of credit in this country.
1.Financial Institutions - Their lending practices, 100% mortgages etc.
2.Government - Poor policies & planning.
3.Construction Industry - Landbanking, restriction of supply to meet demand etc.
4.Media - Talking up the economy and influencing people to get on the ladder.
5.Consumer - A belief that spending credit made them wealthy.

We now have a contraction of credit globally which is affecting this country.
1.Financial Institutions
- Now unwilling to lend at the high ratios they previously did.
-This requires people to save more (i.e. consume less) to purchase a home.
- The institutions are now hoarding money.
2.Government
- cutting back on public spending (transport & education), yet you say the household should continue to spend??
3.FDI moving jobs out of the economy
4.Construction Industry cutting large amounts of jobs, so much so we're about to go back to 1998 levels tomorrow.

How is the consumer supposed to purchase houses at previous rates when banks are unwilling to lend at that rate?
Is the consumer supposed to spend even more than they already have to cover the levels of unemployment that have occurred recently?

There are exogenous factors such as oil, exchange rate, competing countries for FDI, food inflation, inflation in general. These are things the Irish household has no control over. The result is our labour force is less competitive and things cost more for the household. This results in less wages available, less consumption, less taxes and less savings.

I'm sorry, but you can't blame the media or the doom & gloom people for that!

For houses to sell, they have to drop in value to meet banks valuations. For jobs to stay, we have to be more competitive (this means paycuts/work harder for the same wage and improved skills).

Spend Spend Spend and talking things up is just not the answer.
 
Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust

Well if the government comes down hard during partnership talks then it will be a sign that they are starting to take things seriously, i fully agree with the professor from limerick we have been overpaying ourselves with some exceptions for the last 6 years, we are even losing jobs to britain, the public service unions have got to be told to back off, they now represent the best paid workers in the state not the lowest paid, this is the one constructive immediate thing we can do, the reason we had the 80s recession is because we refused to confront reality for so long, we dont have to make the same mistake again
 
Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust

All I am saying is that it's hard not to believe that negativity in the media about the economy can be a self fulfilling prophecy because it affects peoples behaviour. Of course there are issues at the moment but it is not a time to panic. I for one am investing in bank shares right now and purchasing a property...call the men in the white coats and lock me up!
 
Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust

mickman said:
its obvious here that most people dont even know what a recession is. a recession is two quarters of negative gdp growth, we are not even near having one quarter of negative gdp. obviously the economy is slowing down, thats like. the world economy is made up of boom and bust cycles, nothing you or i can do about it. unemplyment is still very low in this country.
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Actually a recession is defined as two quarters of negative real gdb growth. Inflation has been higher than growth in Q4 2007 and Q1 2008 (figures will be out for March in the next few days to prove Q1 2008).

We are in a recession.

Unemployment is growing at an alarming rate.

On other peoples points, particularly the Rambo fellows:

The media can't talk an economy into a recession. The talking is merely commentary on what is already happening. Economies get talked up when they're going up and down when they're going down. Unpatriotic !!!! Yeh right, give me a break. The only thing going for the Irish economy the last 5 years was lashing up crap houses and apartments in often very crap areas.

There are benefits going forward to this downturn. We need to shake off the seriously mis-directed resources that went into property over the last 5 years. Investment in R&D and the services sector are up. These generate real income for the country as they are exportable. I'm already seeing uplift in the software sector.

It's not the end of the world. It's a market cycle and an inevitability of the silliness that proceeded it. Oh, and Ireland is not different.
 
Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust

Why is reporting of facts "talking down" the economy?

We have to watch, read and listen to so much property porn that a few programmes like this don't even start to balance out the arguments.

p.s. Has anyone actually re watched the original Property Crash programme, they predictions aren't too far away from reality at the moment
 
Re: Prime Time - Boom to Bust

Spot on ixus with your points above.

Put simply,we were living on a "borrowed economy" i.e the banks were throwing money at us all like there was no tomorrow so we all thought we were rich. Now its time to wake up and smell the coffee - things are slowing down, like it or not.
 
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