Peak Oil - Doom and gloom for Ireland

R

RightBanker

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Did anyone watch George Lee's excellent documentary last night on RTE - Future Shock: End of the Oil Age?

Lee will probably get a bashing for being a doom and gloom merchant but he presented the facts on our dependency on cheap oil, which were profound and frightening.

Only 18% of our journeys are on public transport - nearly 70 % are by private car - the reverse is the case in Europe.

We use 200,000 barrels of oil a day.

Our air travel has increased 400% since 1990.

We import 60 billion Euro worth of goods.

Lee explained "Peak Oil" is when production of oil reaches a maximum and thereafter supply reduces.

"Peak Oil" is the onset of a new permanent condition with forecasters predicting production dropping by 3% per year, every year and some as much as 8%. No one was quite sure when the peak would arrive but it could be here already likely by 2010 and certainly by 2030.

The impact on the world economy is staggering. In the oil crisis of 1973 OPEC reduced production by 5% in reaction to US support of Israel. Oil prices quadrupled, leading to inflation unemployment and high interest rates. It's frightening to think what a permanent decline will bring

Dick Cheney in 1999 "By some estimates, there will be an average of two-percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day".

It's no wonder the US invaded Iraq.
 
Last weekend a group of senior ESB engineers wanted to reopen the debate on nuclear power. How many petrol queues and unfilled oil boilers will it take until people admit this is the only way forward.....No carbon emissions either so why arn't the green tree huggers more open to it and research into making it even safer than it already is.
 
I saw some article in a recent newspaper forecasting that Ireland was sitting on bucketloads of oil and wed all be like the saudis or something. I cant remember where I saw it but I dont generally have tabloids around the house. I rememeber thinking it was a strange article at the time. Next is the conspiracy theory that the EU and oil companies will benefit from it all.
 
Nuclear is not the answer beause the plutanium or uranium or whatever its called is running out.

Renewables and improved efficency (transport, house design etc.) are the long term solution (100 years into the future timescale)
 
What surprised me was that there was no mention of climate change, unless I missed it.

Even if there was an unlimited and easily accessible supply of oil, we can't keep burning it at the rate we have been, or we and the planet are screwed.

Maybe peak oil is a good thing, from that perspective, if it focuses us on energy efficiency and alternative energy sources.
 
MrKeane said:
Nuclear is not the answer beause the plutanium or uranium or whatever its called is running out.
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Atomic fuel is unlimited if we use breeder reactors (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fast_breeder_reactor).

Of course, the only drawback is that these are the type that can produce fuel for nuclear weapons. But forward-thinking nations, that we are going to be buying power from, are building them now.

HighFlier said:
No carbon emissions either so why arn't the green tree huggers more open to it and research into making it even safer than it already is.
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The more I listen to the Green movement the more I gain the impression that they are simply opposed to human activity on principle, that they would genuinely find something morally objectionable about a world with cheap, readily-available energy. They don't actually want a solution to the problem of peak oil, they just want people to less energy on principle. It's hardly the spirit that built modern civilisation, which would dictate that the obvious solution to running out of one source of energy would be: find another one.
 
we will have huge negative equity in homes, massive unemployment, multi nationals pulling out, and now to cap it all, we'll be in the dark as well!!!!!!!

I can't wait for the third programme.
 
I was in Tesco last night buying apples, I got the type my kids like but noticed a type called Fuji I which came from
..........CHINA
 
sign said:
I cant remember where I saw it but I dont generally have tabloids around the house
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Ah Sign, your dirty secret is out!

The answer is nuclear fusion...combining hydrogen and oxygen with water as the only by-product. Cars, houses, everything will be run by fuel cells. Clean energy...happy days!
 
KalEl said:
Ah Sign, your dirty secret is out!

The answer is nuclear fusion...combining hydrogen and oxygen with water as the only by-product. Cars, houses, everything will be run by fuel cells. Clean energy...happy days!
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The problem with fuel cells is they need hydrogen, which has a low volumetric energy density, and also the distribution infrastructure that would be required for it. The biggest problem with it is how to produce it cleanly, i.e. with green electricity.

BTW fusion will generate electricity not hydrogen
 
badabing said:
The problem with fuel cells is they need hydrogen, which has a low volumetric energy density, and also the distribution infrastructure that would be required for it. The biggest problem with it is how to produce it cleanly, i.e. with green electricity.

BTW fusion will generate electricity not hydrogen
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When did I say fusion would create hydrogen?
 
KalEl said:
The answer is nuclear fusion...combining hydrogen and oxygen with water as the only by-product. Cars, houses, everything will be run by fuel cells. Clean energy...happy days!
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Happy days when we actually figure out how to do it without using up more energy than we get from it.
 
RightBanker said:
Only 18% of our journeys are on public transport - nearly 70 % are by private car - the reverse is the case in Europe.
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I was in Rome earlier this year.

It costs E4.00 for a ticket that gives you unlimited travel for the day on the underground, bus and tram there. Public transport is swift and frequent.

Compare this to Dublin. E4.00 would only pay for a single trip into town and back for me. Also, I don't have 90+ minutes of my time to travel each way on the bus. Life is too short.

People should also be aware that the Government is taking in a huge portion of its income from taxes on petrol and diesel. It is also cleaning up big time on VRT. If the speed, cost and relaibility of public travel for the urban commuter in Ireland greatly increased then many people would opt for it instead of driving everywhere themselves. Less new cars bought, less petrol and diesed used and the Governments revenue would correspondingly fall. It's not in the Department of Finances interest to have us all switching to public transport.

I thought that maybe with the Green Party now in Government we might see some positive change but when I watched Minister Gormless on TV last night saying that he wanted to give penalty points for people who litter from their cars, my heart sank. I have no doubt that people do throw rubbish from cars and deserve punishment but as far as I'm aware penalty points were introduced with the promise that they would only be used to make diving safer and not for any other purpose such as to discourage anti social behaviour among mororist.

Put a beggar on horseback and he’ll ride to hell. The Minister is in office about two days and he is already disconnected from the real world. I wonder what he'll be like after a couple of years at it.

Maybe there's something in the water in the Custom House. His predecessor also showed an unbelievable arrogance and a tendency to live in a fantacy world. At least he got what he deserved in the end.




Murt
 
Murt10 said:
I thought that maybe with the Green Party now in Government we might see some positive change but when I watched Minister Gormless on TV last night saying that he wanted to give penalty points for people who litter from their cars, my heart sank. I have no doubt that people do throw rubbish from cars and deserve punishment but as far as I'm aware penalty points were introduced with the promise that they would only be used to make diving safer and not for any other purpose such as to discourage anti social behaviour among mororist.
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Not the worst idea I've ever heard to be fair!

I agree with you about not feeling guilty about using your car. Hearing people rabbitting on about overuse of cars makes me sick...our public transport system is a complete joke. If it were better, more people would use it-simple as that.
 
The independent documentary 'End of Suburbia' dealt with the subject a lot better. The rte programme definitely borrowed heavily from it.
 
sign said:
I saw some article in a recent newspaper forecasting that Ireland was sitting on bucketloads of oil and wed all be like the saudis or something. I cant remember where I saw it but I dont generally have tabloids around the house. I rememeber thinking it was a strange article at the time. Next is the conspiracy theory that the EU and oil companies will benefit from it all.
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That was an article in the Sindo a few weeks back - it was also in a couple of other papers. The article itself was completely sensationalist, as all the projected oil and gas has not actually been discovered, through drilling explorataion. Instead, these are assumptions based on the type of geology 200-300 km off the west coast.

I have no doubt that there will be finds in the next years, but given the high cost of deepwater technology, the harsh conditions in the Atlantic, and the Irish love affair with objecting to anything invented after 1900, this will not be a bonanza as described by that article...
 
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