IMF loan - what's not to like

[Complainer]

What I'm trying to say is if you can just bring yourself one level deeper than hindsight and place yourself on 24th May 2007, tell me

1) What did we know as an electorate about the impending meltdown of the banking system (it's true that there were warnings from some economists but the general view was that our banks were well capitalised)?

2) How in the name of God we would have known whether FF, FG or Labour would handle such a crisis better?

In fact, in relation to point 2 we still don't know with hindsight. I can not say categorically whether we'd be in a better place now if Anglo failed.

If you couldn't tell that FF have a serious, serious problem with corruption after all that came out about Bertie in that campaign, then we have no hope.

If you vote for people that you know are corrupt, then you deserve everything you get.

 

[Purple]

Anyone who thinks corruption is the root cause of our problems is very naive.
Cheap credit, an ECB interest rate that was way to low for our economy, social partnership agreements that couldn't allow hard decisions to be made and crony-socialism (and capitalism) were alos on the mix.

 

[Chris]

I’m not a FF voter; I have not voted for an FF candidate since Bertie took over so there’s no guilt on my part. I see my choices at the next election between the crony socialism of FF, in inept populism of FG or the smug moral superiority of Labour. The problem with FG, aside from their disjointed policies, is their leader. He has not got a clue how to lead and so no one will follow. The problem with Labour, aside from their smug moral superiority, is their strong anti-business policies, and their utter lack of understanding of how to allow the economy to create wealth for the benefit of society. This lack of understanding is shown over and over again by their supporters and members on TV & Radio, in the newspapers and even on this site.

I suppose I’ll have to vote for FG as the nightmare scenario is a Labour dominated government with someone like Joan Burton as minister for finance. While she’s no fool her socialist ideological dogma will inform her views on all matters. It would be a bit like putting a very clever creationist in charge of a genetics department in a university. Dogma has no place in economics or science.

Very well summarised. As an electorate all we have is a choice of conservative interventionism or liberal interventionism. Both are as destructive to the economy as each other. And those that will suffer the most are the very people we need most: entrepreneurs.

 

[DerKaiser]

Anyone who thinks corruption is the root cause of our problems is very naive.
Cheap credit, an ECB interest rate that was way to low for our economy, social partnership agreements that couldn't allow hard decisions to be made and crony-socialism (and capitalism) were alos on the mix.

Garret Fitzgerald had a good piece in the Irish Times yesterday.

Our major problems stemmed from ignorance about the economic impact of the euro rather than corruption.

 

[DerKaiser]

If you vote for people that you know are corrupt, then you deserve everything you get.

Again, the real dirt on Bertie (nothing of which has been yet proven as I understand) did not come out until 2008.

There were plenty of murmurs before then which you would have strongly believed if you had an anti FF bias to begin with.

Michael Lowry from his FG day has had plenty of accusations against him.

Labour are not exactly as clean as a whistle on the accusations front either. Some of which were founded (Night time Phoenix Park trips) and others unfounded (printing counterfeit money).

So you may have convinced yourself that it's clear to the whole world that FF are corrupt to the core and Labour are squeaky clean and anyone who didn't immediately believe every rumour regarding FF corruption was naive, but I'm not sure that's the case.

Anyway this is completely off topic, I'd be happy if it was continued elsewhere as 'Why Complainer believes that people who use their vote in a way he disapproves of is an idiot'

 

[Deiseblue]

" Night time Phoenix Park trips "

Surely you don't equate this peccadillo with the behaviour of Bertie , Rambo Burke , Charlie, Michael Lowry , Liam Lawlor et al ?

 

[Complainer]

Again, the real dirt on Bertie (nothing of which has been yet proven as I understand) did not come out until 2008.

There were plenty of murmurs before then which you would have strongly believed if you had an anti FF bias to begin with.

Michael Lowry from his FG day has had plenty of accusations against him.

Labour are not exactly as clean as a whistle on the accusations front either. Some of which were founded (Night time Phoenix Park trips) and others unfounded (printing counterfeit money).

So you may have convinced yourself that it's clear to the whole world that FF are corrupt to the core and Labour are squeaky clean and anyone who didn't immediately believe every rumour regarding FF corruption was naive, but I'm not sure that's the case.

Ah lads, now denial is not a river in Egypt. If that's the worst that you can throw at Labour, then really, it is squeaky clean. One junior Minister stupid enough to be in the wrong place at the wrong time - no offence committed - no Garda/DPP charges. But a handy leak from within the Gardai to the O'Reilly newspapers. And a vague allegation from the dark distant past about a different party, some of whose members are now in Labour?

You're not seriously suggesting that this ranks anywhere near FF's track record, with Haughey, Rambo, Lawlor and Bertie? Do you not remember Micky McDowell's 24 hours of wrestling with his conscience during the 2007 campaign, while he worked out how badly he really wanted to be Tanaiste? Do you not remember Bertie's teary explanation for why the Minister of Finance didn't have a bank account and the digouts in Manchester? All this was in the public domain in 2007. If you chose the party that had clearly demonstrated that they had no value system, then worse fool you.

If you had chosen Labour, we wouldn't be paying €50 billion odd for Anglo and Irish Nationwide now.

 

[Purple]

No, but with Labour we'd have had much higher levels of public spending which would have further overheated the economy. They would also have taxed the wealth creating sector of the economy out of existance.

 

[DerKaiser]

If you had chosen Labour, we wouldn't be paying €50 billion odd for Anglo and Irish Nationwide now.

A suitably vague statement that's very light on how they would have actually managed to do this.

You conveniently forget that one of the terms of the ECB propping up the entire banking system in this country is that senior bondholders don't get burnt.

I'm also not sure of Labour's appetite to preside over a situation in which Irish depositors lost their money.

I look forward to labour coming into power. You'll quickly see the same change from sanctimony to realism that we witnessed in the Greens over the past 3 years. Get ready for it.

And I'll reiterate that I think it's petty, highly insulting, undemocratically minded and nauseatingly smug to label 40% of the electorate fools and say they should be guilty for not choosing your crowd.

 

[Complainer]

A suitably vague statement that's very light on how they would have actually managed to do this.

You conveniently forget that one of the terms of the ECB propping up the entire banking system in this country is that senior bondholders don't get burnt.

You conveniently forget that we wouldn't need an ECB/IMF package if FF hadn't written a blank cheque to cover the debts of Anglo and INBS. The whole reason for the run on Irish bonds was the doubt in the market about the size of the solution required to fix these banks.

It isn't rocket science. Labour would simply have not signed a blank cheque to cover these debts. The depositor protection scheme was already in place, and there is justification for the increase of this protection from €20k to €100k. There is no justification for the blank cheque to cover the Anglo and INBS bondholders.

I look forward to labour coming into power. You'll quickly see the same change from sanctimony to realism that we witnessed in the Greens over the past 3 years. Get ready for it.

Labour are under no illusions about what the party is getting into. The pressure that came on the Greens will be in the ha'penny place compared to the pressure that will come onto Labour, particularly with the huge right wing media bias that exists in Ireland today.

Don't expect to hear Gilmore whinging to the Dáil about how hard it is and how many sleepless nights he has. He'll get on with the job of Taoiseach or Tánaiste with fuss or drama. The light at the end of the tunnel is the ending of civil war politics in Ireland, and a move to a typical left/right divide, as FF spiral into a black hole.

And I'll reiterate that I think it's petty, highly insulting, undemocratically minded and nauseatingly smug to label 40% of the electorate fools and say they should be guilty for not choosing your crowd.

So you voted FF then.

I'm always amazed at those who scream about the importance of accountability and taking responsibility seem to run a mile for taking responsibility for their own actions, i.e. the previous voting record.

 

[Bronte]

Anyone who thinks corruption is the root cause of our problems is very naive.
Cheap credit, an ECB interest rate that was way to low for our economy, social partnership agreements that couldn't allow hard decisions to be made and crony-socialism (and capitalism) were alos on the mix.

It was those things combined with the ingrained corruption that has landed us where we are.

So now that the IMF are running the show, and neither FF, FG nor Labour have shown us they are any better or will be better at running the country, aren't we better off with the IMF controlling the government. I guess it doesn't matter who is next voted in at all.

The other danger on it's way is SF. That's lethal. More toxic to the state than anything FF managed.

 

[Sunny]

If you had chosen Labour, we wouldn't be paying €50 billion odd for Anglo and Irish Nationwide now.

How do you know how much we would have ended up paying under Labour? Are you seriously suggesting that Labour had some magic low cost solution for the banking crisis. Amazing how I have never heard it. All I heard was nationalise the banks. How much would that have saved? Would love to see your figures.

 

[orka]

The other danger on it's way is SF. That's lethal. More toxic to the state than anything FF managed.

One of the opinion polls at the weekend had a Labour/SF coalition as a very possible outcome. The prospect of that should send shudders up middle Ireland and could lead to tactical fallback to voting for FF - unpalatable though that may be. From my point of view, I find the lack of palatable alternatives depressing.

 

[DerKaiser]

So you voted FF then.

Yeah I've been amongst the 45% of people who elected the government in the last 13 years, so I guess who else is there to blame for the whole mess.

 

[DerKaiser]

How do you know how much we would have ended up paying under Labour? Are you seriously suggesting that Labour had some magic low cost solution for the banking crisis. Amazing how I have never heard it. All I heard was nationalise the banks. How much would that have saved? Would love to see your figures.

I'm just surprised he didn't wait a few more years to allow the benefit of even more hindsight to say what Labour would have hypothetically done.

 

[Purple]

In fairness to Labour they are consistent; they haven’t told us how they will do/would have done anything else either.

 

[Shawady]

No, but with Labour we'd have had much higher levels of public spending which would have further overheated the economy.

I honestly don't think they would have increased public spending anymore than FF did, certainly not the social welfare bill.
Remember, it was Bertie that became a socialist in 2004 and replaced McCreevy with Cowen. If you look at the increases in social welfare payments between 2004-2008, they are way beyond inflation.
I have no link available but from memory, in 2003 the PS pay bill was 13 billion and the social welfare bill was 8 billion.

I agree with your previous post that there were external factors that an alternative government would have had to deal with but I cannot believe a FG/LAB would have been worse (and I am not a supporter of either party).

 

[Purple]

You're probably right Shawady; FF under Bertie out socilaist-ed the labour party.
I suppose I'm sceptical about a different bunch of socialists being much better. Although I will admit that labour have a much more upper-class support base and so we’d get a better educated bunch of socialists from them.

 

[Complainer]

How do you know how much we would have ended up paying under Labour? Are you seriously suggesting that Labour had some magic low cost solution for the banking crisis. Amazing how I have never heard it. All I heard was nationalise the banks. How much would that have saved? Would love to see your figures.

For a start, the crisis would have been better managed, as happened in most European countries. The warnings signs would have beene seen and addressed.

But most importantly, Labour would not have signed a blank cheque to provide an unlimited guarantee to the bondholders in Anglo and INBS. THis is nothing to do with hindsight. Labour are on record as opposing the bank guarantee and voted against it in the Dáil at the time.

One of the opinion polls at the weekend had a Labour/SF coalition as a very possible outcome. The prospect of that should send shudders up middle Ireland and could lead to tactical fallback to voting for FF - unpalatable though that may be. From my point of view, I find the lack of palatable alternatives depressing.

The other danger on it's way is SF. That's lethal. More toxic to the state than anything FF managed.

Interesting to see O'Reilly Newspapers trying to undermine Labour with 'guilt by association' with SF over the weekend, regardless of what Gilmore has already said about SF.

I'm just surprised he didn't wait a few more years to allow the benefit of even more hindsight to say what Labour would have hypothetically done.

Again, nothing to do with hindsight. Labour had the foresight to oppose the unlimited bank guarantee. That's a matter of public record.

Yeah I've been amongst the 45% of people who elected the government in the last 13 years, so I guess who else is there to blame for the whole mess.

I guess you'd have tried the Bertie/Brian/Brian approach of blaming Lehman's for all our woes instead.

 

[Bronte]

Interesting to see O'Reilly Newspapers trying to undermine Labour with 'guilt by association' with SF over the weekend, regardless of what Gilmore has already said about SF.
.

I presume you are referring to the fact that Labour said they will not go into power with SF. Where have we heard that before in relation to an election. Politicians will do anything to get into power.

I would vote Labour probably but if I thought they would go in with SF I'd be willing to vote anyone including FF and that's saying something after the mess they've created.

Pity the nation.... an interesting article on the subject.

[broken link removed]


Anyway all this is pedantic as the IMF are calling the shots. Not FF or FG or Labour. And that's a good thing too.