Can understand your view ....
My personal view (not speaking with my BM hat on) ....
a) Not convinced that some TD's and Media understand what re-capitalisation means - i.e. money is placed in say preference shares - which must stay on the balance sheet of the banks - therefore I remain to be convinced as to what this will achieve in terms of liquidity in the market ...
b) A root (not the only one) of our problems is 'land' and specifically the cost thereof ...
c) Many developers (large and small) have bought same at inflated prices, with the notion of developing same - building either residential or commercial units on same and making a quick kill - bank's stuck in the middle of this transaction by financing same .. so now we have developer and bank's with an exposure - and uncertainty as to how to resolve ...
d) Rather than just re-capitalise Bank's - I suggest the following as an approach ...
e) Developers - Bank's - and Team of Government appointed experts, systematically go through each 'problem’ case - this will crystallise the issue of exposure once and for all ...
then, Government appointees purchase back the development land for an agreed sum - (still leaving an identified exposure for both developers and bank's to deal with - but by Government buying the land, things will have crystallised). Government will have got (i) fair value on the land (ii) will now have an asset for their E7/8bn and (iii) will now have control of large tracts of development land - for either residential/commercial development - road development - government infrastructure development (e.g. schools, hospitals, fire stations, etc etc), on the basis that the government can/will hold this land and release in to the market on a phased basis they should make a return on it.
The financial markets wont see the bank's recapitalised - but will see this action as a) Government taking firm control of the situation b) crystallising and indeed minimising the bad debt exposure to bank's from this sector and c) allows the developers some breathing space and a smaller (but still difficult mountain to climb).
The taxpayer (and that includes me remember) would gain certainty in the short term as to what we get for our E7/8bn and with the likelihood of a more decent return in to Government coffers over time.
From a share price point of view (and yes I have a vested interest here) but so do most reading this post in terms of pension performance etc - has a better chance of attracting international investors when a) they realise bad debt issue has been largely crstallised and b) the banks don't have to pay a preference dividend to the government for years to come, thus keeping international fund managers away.
Finally, with Government controlling lands, I believe if they started to develop same (even at a small scale) it would introduce some confidence back in to the market - which would be a positive for everyone....
Now there's my 'tuppence worth....
Regards,
BM