How disruptive will the vocanic ash be this Summer?

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There have been varying reports on the extent to which the volcanic ash clouds are likely to disrupt air travel this Summer. While there may have been some element of scaremongering, it would seem reasonable to establish the real risk.

How real is the threat of disruption over the coming months?

Should this be the year to holiday at home (or somewhere within reach of a ferry)?

What to people think?
 
Impossible to accurately predict. I have booked flights for august and will take my chances.
 
Certainly I would not be booking any accomodation that requires you to pay upfront (like some well known hotel websites) as then you may well lose out if a cancelled flight meant not travelling. Booking directly with the hotel there is usually a 48 hour cancellation policy where you pay nothing or else at short notice of a cancelled flight you may only pay the 1st night. This way you can minimise the risk if your flight is cancelled - you will get refund from airline and not have fully paid the hotel upfront. Also with the deals in Irish hotels at the mo a cancelled flight does not have to mean a ruined weekend / week, you can ring around and try to bargain a cheap deal in a hotel with empty rooms. Like Aristotle I am going to take my chances also.
 
How long is a piece of string? no one knows, however I would be reluctant to book via websites and if I were going overseas, would book via a travel agent instead.

One thing I did hear (it would be good if someone could confirm this) is that if you fly to the US on an European airline, they are obliged under EU law to pick up your reasonable costs if you get delayed because of something like the volcano, but an American airline is not responsible under US law.
 
I can tell you I'm praying hoping and will resort to begging if required. We're getting married in Canada at the end of June and I don't know what I'll do if it's bad!

I have travel insurance that will get me to mu desitnation and we're leaving the Saturday before but I'll be one unhappy bride if there no wedding!

addob
 
Two points from a biased travel agent only one of which I'm 100% sure is correct.

1) The volcanic ash problem will go away on Whit Sunday and will reappear at Halloween for forty days.
This is as good a forecast as any expert can give.

2) If you book a package holiday with a licensed and bonded travel company then ,if your holiday does not go ahead or is delayed by more than 24 hours you will be refunded every cent.
If you are abroad and your return home is delayed you will get accommodation and meals free of charge by that travel company until it is possible to get a flight home .
No need to make a claim, find your own accommodation, or ask for money to be sent out. This only applies to package holidays.

P.S. Even if the travel company goes broke -and some will this year due to this problem - you will still be 100% covered by the government bond that all Irish tour operators and travel agents must have.
(list of agents on aviationreg.ie website)

If not part of a package holiday then making a booking for overseas accommodation does not entitle you to a refund from the accommodation owners if you can't fly out there.

And ,yes, MPSOX, only EU airlines are obliged to refund expences if you are stuck.
aviationreg.ie has all the rules in simple language.


P.S. Addop -what do you mean in your post - "I have travel insurance that will get me to my destination" ?
 
Just think, if it were 20 years ago when air sampling equipment was less sensitive, we wouldnt even know that this ash was in the air, all planes would fly and nobody would worry about it.
 
csirl said:
Just think, if it were 20 years ago when air sampling equipment was less sensitive, we wouldnt even know that this ash was in the air, all planes would fly and nobody would worry about it.
Click to expand...

Or, at least we wouldn't until a plane fell out the sky, killing all those on board.


"The crew of two aircraft, including a British Airways Boeing 747, discovered in 1982 when they flew through an ash cloud from the Galunggung volcano in Indonesia.
All four engines on both planes stopped; they dived from 36,000ft to 12,000ft before they could restart the engines and make emergency landings"
 
Disruption

From two seperate taxi drivers

1) The heat in summer will make it worse as Ash will not disperse without wind and rain
2) When our prevailing wind returns to South Westerly this will push the Ash back towards the Artic and we will suffer minimal disruption
 
1) The volcanic ash problem will go away on Whit Sunday and will reappear at Halloween for forty days.
This is as good a forecast as any expert can give.

This means it will gone mid june until end of October. Perfect for the holiday season.

Thanks Oldnich......any other brainwaves by the way?
 
If you really want to be ahead of the game keep any eye on these writers who foresaw the eruption
[broken link removed]
down at post 645
discussion started on 4th March (eruption started on 20th March)

If your too lazy to read it all one thing to remember is while they mention Katla there is no evidence of any activity there. Good article here [broken link removed]

PS who can afford a holiday anyhow?
 
huskerdu said:
Or, at least we wouldn't until a plane fell out the sky, killing all those on board.


"The crew of two aircraft, including a British Airways Boeing 747, discovered in 1982 when they flew through an ash cloud from the Galunggung volcano in Indonesia.
All four engines on both planes stopped; they dived from 36,000ft to 12,000ft before they could restart the engines and make emergency landings"
Click to expand...

This aircraft flew through a visible black smoke stack coming from and directly over an erupting volcano - if you read the report of the accident, you'll note that the smoke from the volcano even came into the passenger cabin. While this example has been trotted out by the media, the circumstances are very different to those we are experiencing and this accident has little relevence to why airspace is being closed.
 
oldnick said:
P.S. Addop -what do you mean in your post - "I have travel insurance that will get me to my destination" ?
Click to expand...

I have travel insurance that if my flight is delayed more than 24 hours they will alot me €2,000 to get to my final desination.

I have spoken to customer service and confirmed thatthis is their method of dealing with the volcanic ash.

addob
 
An interesting point about last weekends stoppage of flights to Spain -including Canaries, Balaerics - and Portugal.

Whilst Aer Lingus and Ryanair cancelled many flights to these destinations, tour operators did not.

For example, Panorama/Sunworld flew every flight, save Madeira, within five hours of departure time from various Irish airports to Spanish and Portugese departures.

This means ,save Madeira, that all Panorama/Sunworld pax got out - and returned home - O.K.
I believe, but havent checked, that the same was true for Falcon package passengers.

So how come FR/EI pax were so badly affected and the charter ones were not ?

(Incidentally, the one flight that was affected for Panorama pax was to madeira -on a scheduled service) .


I believe that anyone affected by EI/FR or other scheduled carriers' cancellations should query why the flights were cancelled -and yet the package holiday operators flights were not.
 
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