ECB rates this year, what kins of predictions?

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andrea79

Registered User
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Im just wondering has anyone any idea what way its going to go this year? Is there a possiblity they will go up in the next year or so or will they stay roughly at the rate they are?
I know its not an easy question to answer but just wondering what people think is going to happen.

Ive just come off a 2 yr fixed rate and going onto a variable rate, but if they hike it up much this year, i could be in trouble, so im hoping it will kind of stay the same for a little while.

Thanks.
 
In my opinion, ECB are more likely to reduce rates or leave them stand, than put them up in the short to medium term. But if you need the security of knowing what your repayments are going to be, fix and forget about what the ECB might do while you're fixed.
 
meeting in march will leave rate at 2% and rate will rise in august by .50% up to 2.5%.
thats what i predict
 
I'd say we will see 1% before we see another rise.

How long depends on so many factors I wouldn't even hazard a guess.
 
My predictions ...

1) Feb - No cut (2%)
2) March - 0.5% cut (1.5%)
3) April - No Cut (1.5%)
4) May - 0.25% cut (1.25%)
5) June - (Deflation starts) 0.25% cut (1.00%)
6) July, August - No cut (1.00%)
7) September - 0.25% cut (0.75%)
8) Oct, Nov, Dec - No cut (0.75%)

Too exact to be right :)
 
rameire said:
meeting in march will leave rate at 2% and rate will rise in august by .50% up to 2.5%.
thats what i predict
Click to expand...

What do you think will happen in the summer that will put the ECB rate up by.5?



I would say it will be 1-1.5% by June, it will then stay at that level for the rest of 2009 (or drop more, but definably not higher). 2010 will really depend on what the economy of Germany and France is like.
 
I'm no expert btu if the world continues in this state of crisis, then I would say they could go to 1.0% or even 0.75%.

Can't see them any lower than that, no matter how bad things get.
 
There will be a .5 of .25 cut in March, a possible .25 cut in June. No other changes this year.
 
RMCF said:
I'm no expert btu if the world continues in this state of crisis, then I would say they could go to 1.0% or even 0.75%.

Can't see them any lower than that, no matter how bad things get.
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I wouldn't let the fact that you are not an expert worry you :p

We have had so-called experts running our banks and government for the past 10 years, and look where that has got us.

Your guess is as good as theirs :)
 
Senna said:
What do you think will happen in the summer that will put the ECB rate up by.5?



I would say it will be 1-1.5% by June, it will then stay at that level for the rest of 2009 (or drop more, but definably not higher). 2010 will really depend on what the economy of Germany and France is like.
Click to expand...

this is probably close to what the market is predicting - absolutely no chance in hell it will go up before 4Q09
 
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