...what has that got to do with anything?
I thought the first part of Beta2's post was very interesting.
I wonder if many developers are scaling back their plans for next year in the face of continuing interest rate rises.
...what has that got to do with anything?
Whathome, I totally agree with you - the biggest wedge of population in ireland is 28-35 and are obsessed with property. The trick is going to be to target the next obsession...ask the folks what they were into when they were 40...if they can remember! Reckon private health care...maybe we should be investimg in nursing homes (kinda ties in with property)
Firefly
The Girlfriends father is a director in a very large building firm in Ireland.
About 2 months ago he disagreed with my view that we were heading for a property price correction, in fact he laughed lamenting that he couldn't see the end in sight!
Last week that firm cancelled all of it plans to build residential apartments in 2007. It also pulled out of several bidding wars that they were in trying to get land in dublin. They have also brought forward the completion dates of its existing apartment developments. In fact they have increased the workforce by 50% to get two large apartment blocks finished by the end of the year.
That to me is a worrying sign! to say the least.
Last week that firm cancelled all of it plans to build residential apartments in 2007. It also pulled out of several bidding wars that they were in trying to get land in dublin. They have also brought forward the completion dates of its existing apartment developments. In fact they have increased the workforce by 50% to get two large apartment blocks finished by the end of the year.
Short-term speculators - I wonder how many of these are about.
We lost (Edit: opted out of) a bidding war on a €900,000 house in February, the deal went through a few weeks later. Driving past it today, Mrs. Whathome noticed that it had not been touched, weeds in the garden etc. So she cheekily stopped and took a closer look and it's vacant.
No building work, no furniture. It's exactly as it was in Feb. I'm not saying it was definitely a speculator however.
With IO mortgages I wonder if there are many people taking big short-term bets on Dublin property?
A four bed semi detached house in D4 sold for 2.435 million a couple of months ago. It needs total refurbishment! Since the auction it has remained empty. The reason, I'm told, is that the buyer is awaiting planning permission.
...what has that got to do with anything?
Would this be 1200 apartments in Tallaght?
Last week that firm cancelled all of it plans to build residential apartments in 2007. It also pulled out of several bidding wars that they were in trying to get land in dublin. They have also brought forward the completion dates of its existing apartment developments. In fact they have increased the workforce by 50% to get two large apartment blocks finished by the end of the year.
€548K for a one bed in Clontarf!!!
Properties like these surely have a long way to fall in any downturn, just who would pay that for a one bed apartment 657 sq foot in Clontarf D3 Ireland???, crazy, absolutely crazy.
Far fewer First Time Buyers in coming years?
I was thinking about how the baby boom from the 70's has worked it's way through the various obsessions that have taken Ireland.
DMcW makes reference to it here, pubs closing etc.:
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/Articles/view.asp?CategoryID=-1&CategoryName=&ArticleID=267
Is property just the latest obsession because a glut of people at the "that" age need to buy property?
Nobody talks about the college points race anymore - because there are far fewer people in "that" age bracket and there is a surplus of college places.
Do you remember Superpubs?
In a few years, will people be saying "Do you remember the proberty bubble?"
With far fewer FTB's coming on the scene, who will prop up the market?
Theres a story behind this one. They were built by the guy who owns the Beaumount House. He tried to sell them himself and cut off the agents. He sold none. They sat there for 6 months when completed. Then Sherry Fitz got involved. They still didn't sell. Then the guy went around putting Sold signs on most of the properties and put some up for rent. Were vacent for another 6 months. Now they're being sold one by one. Seems to have sold a few. Yes they're way over priced. Word was you could have got one for €490k if you made an over. The 2 beds were/are even more outragous at €750k. Incidently this area is prone to high tide flooding and did so about 3 years ago.
All you have to do is look around somewhere like Blackrock for a snapshot of how the pubs are struggling these days. 2 pubs gone since I returned to work in this area. Other pubs like the Dollymount House in Clontarf have closed down to be (subject to pp) turned into appartments. It had a very viable food business but no more than 50 people on a Fri/Sat night. It was one of the superpubs when I was turning 18.
All you have to do is look around somewhere like Blackrock for a snapshot of how the pubs are struggling these days.
This is something you wouldnt want to be in your investment profolio in the current weakening market.
But that is how, IMO, such property could crash substantially in price. From 380K to 80K/100K.
In the Bank of Ireland Quarterly review for August '06 it mentions that in 2005, 54,000 loans were for new houses but there were 81,000 new house completions.
[broken link removed]
Could 27,000 new properties really have been bought with no mortgage last year?
Builders hanging on to 1/3 of their completions?
Unlikely.
In peripheral areas property will fall as much as 50% from now. In better areas as little as 25% . Outer commuter belt is what I call peripheral. 30-50 miles out from Dublin and 10-25 miles out from Galway . Those kinds of areas will be savaged. No modern houses will drop below €150k except out the back of Ballivor maybe .
Dodgy apartments in the cities where the management fees and structures are loaded against the occupiers will also get it in the neck. I can see standard purchase contracts for apartments becoming very very strict and lots of litigation between apartment 'owners' and their management companies and agents and legislation to clean the whole mess up .
That will take years to sort out though , affecting the prices in some complexes very badly as apartment purchasers migrate towards transparently and fairly managed complexes.
I would not be so general in your percentages because it will differ from house to house.