Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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partisan said:
0.25% every few months or about 1% a year! Compare that to the late 80's!
Don't get the significance of the link, can you exlpain?
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its not linked - just threw it in for the crack.

1% a year. It doesnt sound much does it? Maybe its not to some people. Its not the 80s anymore THANK GOD! Very different times as you indirectly pointed out.
I definately would not like to see it rise to the levels seen in the 80s
 
A slow down in the construction sector will not only impact on construction related jobs, it will impact the financial sector as well. Regarding the crash, its not a question of will it happen, its a question of when will it happen.

"In the Second Quarter of 2000, there were 165,200 directly employed in the Irish Construction compared with 262,700 in the comparable period in 2006. As the Construction Sector, in which residential housing accounts for two-thirds, slows over the next decade, there will be at least 100,000 direct and indirect job losses. As noted below, many of the 58,000 additional jobs in Financial & Business Services since 2000, are property related.

Average earnings in Construction at €40,000, are 29% above the average in industry. Even if workers in Construction who generally are not computer literate and do not have transferable skills, face earning cuts, it would be quite an adjustment. However, there have been 40,000 job losses in the Production and Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Sectors since 2000 and there is no potential for employment growth in these sectors."

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10007932.shtml
 
Dreamerb said:
This thread seems to me to be wildly over-interpreting a number of facts and some anecdotal evidence. In particular, the interpretation of the 300,000 allegedly empty properties seems off, and does not appear to take any account of the large number of properties vacant because
(1) owned by local authorities and requiring substantial renovation / refurbishment to be habitable; (2) owned by private individuals, otherwise as (1); (3) owned by private individual in long term institutional care [e.g. home of an elderly person no longer able to cope, family if any unwilling /unable to sell home]; (4) held as property bank - being constructively derelicted; (5) vacant awaiting new owners to move in, etc.

All of these would be significant contributors, as would abandonment of older rural homes.
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Your speculation on why they might be vacant is besides the point and doesn't provide a reason for why our vacancy rate is so out of whack with international markets (which would have old people moving to nursing homes, property needing repairs etc.). Should capital appreciation stop (i.e. the famous slow landing) these glut of properties can and will be added to the market (either rental or property sales). The shear number of them identitied by the CSO is the big worry as it represents many years of building.

Dreamerb said:
An investor who actually chooses to hold a new property empty would - even in the euphoric days of 15% pa capital appreciation - be spectacularly foolish. If you choose to manage a property yourself, yes there's a little bit of hassle, but otherwise there are companies that specialise in that area. Most of the costs are tax deductible, and quite a number would arise whether the place is rented or not [management charges, maintenance...].
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Many muliple-homeowners these days are what could be termed "accidental investors". Property was bought while they were young and was held on to longer than they needed it because the mantra was "You'd be mad to sell". Their circumstances may have changed since they bought it (nesting with partner, starting a family) however there's not much to worry about if the capital is appreciating year-on-year. Until recently banks were only too happy to help in this process (often suggesting it in fact).

Without capital appreciation the picture changes dramatically though and you can be guaranteed that that's when a lot of these properties will be added to the rental or housing market.
 
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Dreamerb said:
This thread seems to me to be wildly over-interpreting a number of facts and some anecdotal evidence. In particular, the interpretation of the 300,000 allegedly empty properties seems off, and does not appear to take any account of the large number of properties vacant because
(1) owned by local authorities and requiring substantial renovation / refurbishment to be habitable; (2) owned by private individuals, otherwise as (1); (3) owned by private individual in long term institutional care [e.g. home of an elderly person no longer able to cope, family if any unwilling /unable to sell home]; (4) held as property bank - being constructively derelicted; (5) vacant awaiting new owners to move in, etc.

All of these would be significant contributors, as would abandonment of older rural homes.
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So many times on this thread, bulls posit reasons why there are so many vacant homes. The reasons run the gamut of plausible to ridiculous. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter why these properties are empty, simply that they are. Historically, about 3% of property remains vacant. For some reason, in a country supposedly affected by a severe housing shortage, we have a 13.5% vacancy rate.

Does this not alarm you slightly?
 
homeless said:
I see the McWilliams RTE series starts tonight. Anyone think this will have an affect on sentiment?
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rofl. I have no doubt that those who still can't afford their own home will hang on to his every word and conveniently forget that the property doomsters like McWilliams got it manifestly
wrong in 1999
wrong in 2000
wrong in 2001
wrong in 2002
wrong in 2003
wrong in 2004
wrong in 2005
wrong in 2006 !

and I am not bullish about all property.
 
demoivre said:
rofl. I have no doubt that those who still can't afford their own home will hang on to his every word and conveniently forget that the property doomsters like McWilliams got it manifestly
wrong in 1999
wrong in 2000
wrong in 2001
wrong in 2002
wrong in 2003
wrong in 2004
wrong in 2005
wrong in 2006 !

and I am not bullish about all property.
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Agreed but at some point, next year , year after ... he will be right , and the 500K you paid for a shoe box in Mount St Annes will refect its true value IMO 250K.
 
[broken link removed]

Watch this place fall in value. Is 725K just being ambitious or is the vendor reading a different market ?
 
demoivre said:
rofl. I have no doubt that those who still can't afford their own home will hang on to his every word and conveniently forget that the property doomsters like McWilliams got it manifestly
wrong in 1999
wrong in 2000
wrong in 2001
wrong in 2002
wrong in 2003
wrong in 2004
wrong in 2005
wrong in 2006 !

and I am not bullish about all property.
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I disagree. I think that McWilliams was looking at it from an Ecomonics point of view. He was only proven wrong becasue cheap money was available and Irish people took advantage of all offerings from banks etc. This cheap credit facility is ending fast.
 
demoivre said:
rofl. I have no doubt that those who still can't afford their own home will hang on to his every word and conveniently forget that the property doomsters like McWilliams got it manifestly
wrong in 1999
wrong in 2000
wrong in 2001
wrong in 2002
wrong in 2003
wrong in 2004
wrong in 2005
wrong in 2006 !

and I am not bullish about all property.
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Ah yes, the ol' "Ive-smoked-100-cigs-a-day-still-no-cancer" logic. Hang on, maybe it even prevents cancer!?
 
bren2002 said:
I disagree. I think that McWilliams was looking at it from an Ecomonics point of view. He was only proven wrong becasue cheap money was available and Irish people took advantage of all offerings from banks etc. This cheap credit facility is ending fast.
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Disagree all you like - I have just quoted fact and what I said is correct.
 
bren2002 said:
I disagree. I think that McWilliams was looking at it from an Ecomonics point of view. He was only proven wrong becasue cheap money was available and Irish people took advantage of all offerings from banks etc. This cheap credit facility is ending fast.
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When hosting Agenda, even McWilliams used to joke about how often he'd gotten it wrong. Cheap money has been available for a very long time now. Perhaps it was a good excuse in 2000 but not 2005/6. Give any of us long enough and we'll guess something right somewhere.
 
whathome said:
That's good because an anonymous poll suggests that given the current downturn in the property market, 70% of people think that McWilliams is finally not going to be wrong! I expect he will be....

correct in 2007
correct in 2008
correct in 2009
correct in 2010
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Excellent - can you ask him what the lotto numbers will be on Sat. night.
 
demoivre said:
Excellent - can you ask him what the lotto numbers will be on Sat. night.
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Coming from the person who is bullish on some property but not all!

Tell us oh wise one, what should we buy????
Even better - tell us what we shouldn't buy, apart from lotto tickets :)
 
demoivre said:
roflol what have I said that's incorrect?
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:) Bob likes to drive 100mph down country lanes. Been doing it all year, hasn’t hit a thing.

Inductive reasoning: Bob is a brillant driver.
Deductive reasoning: Speed kills.


5yrs later. Bob still likes to drive fast down country lanes. In fact, now it’s more like 150mph and particularly likes doing it when he’s p1ssed. And look he still hasn’t hit a thing!

Inductive reasoning: The man is a legend.
Deductive reasoning: Stay out of Bob’s car!
 
phoenix_n said:
[broken link removed]

Watch this place fall in value. Is 725K just being ambitious or is the vendor reading a different market ?
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Thats a cool US$1million. It shows just how far we have come in a few years, alot done and more to do - US$ 2m by 2010.....
 
whathome said:
Flippin' Stillorgan...

These just keep getting cheaper!

Developers Price €590,000:
[broken link removed]=

This one has been for sale for months now. Miju even made that controversial call about it, the price had been reduced from €575,000 to €560,000
http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?search=1&selected_agent=&id=84285&s[agent_id]=218&s[p]=upsvvwrp

And the latest one (appeared today) is €550,000
[broken link removed]
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Still falling...

Miju made the call on this one! Now down to €540,000
[broken link removed]
 
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