Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[BigM]

I think it's indicative of the change in sentiment over the past few months that someone with a bullish viewpoint on property could be described as "contrarian"

LOL

As far as I can see the argument being put forward by the bears has yet to be properly rebutted so I'm hoping Andy Doof or one of the other bulls brave enough to enter this bear-pit of a thread will do so:
Rental yields don't exist anymore so Cap App is driving the investor market. The property market cheerleaders are predicting it to return 3-5% in Cap App for the next few years which is less than you'll get in a deposit a/c.
With no yield and little CA return, investors will stop coming into the market. At 40% that's a lot of demand to lose.

Affordability is being stretched at the FTB level - wage inflation is nowhere near high enough - which feeds all the way up the chain (if wage inflation was high enough to compensate we'd also be in big trouble on a global competitive basis, but that's another day's work!). Longer term mortgages/holidays/ARMs only mask the unaffordability - they're like cough syrup for smokers... they ease the symptoms but don't solve the cause. Houses aren't out of reach from FTBs because IRs are too high/terms are too short/salaries aren't high enough. They're out of reach because they're too expensive.

IMO these are the basic bear arguments why we should get lower prices. It would appear that we are starting to see the first signs of this in the current market.

Anyway, that's enough for now! Looking forward to the next round tomorrow!!

 

[JayDub]

Home Prices Plunge by Most in 35 Years
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061026/economy.html?.v=24
"The Commerce Department reported that the median price for a new home sold in September was $217,100, a decline of 9.7 percent from September 2005."

Bulls can hold their breath or change their underpants, that article concerns the states. Thankfully this will never happen in Ireland. We don't have crashes, we don't have snakes and our farts don't smell.

 

[Dannybouy]

Buy up all the empty housing as "affordable housing", and knock some of it down for being "unsafe".
Already being put into action. e.g in Cork Fianna Fail TD Noel O'Flynn has just announced that the govt has provided an extra Eur 12,000,000 which is to be used to buy houses in the city at current market prices for use as social housing.. Dublin City Council has also begun doing the same

thats an idea sell the house to the council hide the money, bribe my way to the top of the housing list get a 400,000 euro house for 13 euro a week might as well sing on the dole and retire

 

[Open_Window]

thats an idea sell the house to the council hide the money, bribe my way to the top of the housing list get a 400,000 euro house for 13 euro a week might as well sing on the dole and retire

Well they did manage to sell of most of the council housing thus undermining any control they had over speculation by having a social oversupply. This is the trend of selling of everything else, eircom, aer lingus, ESB. Sweating the assests they call it right?

Soon there will be very little for these jumped up ejits in the Dail to do anyway apart from explain their absence of mind while it was their watch the day the crash is debated in crisis session.

The Government couldn't have done a better job of adding fuel to this market.

I knew about 2 years ago that all hope was lost when I heard a bunch of girls I guess who where aged around 17-19 talking about property down the back of the bus, how they could't "believe" how much houses were selling around their area, on their road, who was getting what for what. Yet at the same time seeing it as a no brainer for parents & relatives a like buying properties in places like Costa Del Lost Souls which was ultimately a win win.

i see it continues, and oh look a developer is using his high margin high stock to under cut a sinlge home vendor, ah now thats just unfair;

Yesterday, 05:23 PM

Posts: 2
should I under bid first?
Hi everyone,
I have my own house up for sale for the last 2 months, I have already had a 2 offers in the first 2 weeks of sale of 25k under the asking price (reason for this is that there is a new develoment same style as my house selling for 25k under my asking price) I basically can't afford to sell it for anything less!

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=39934

Worth checking out this thread, http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=39571, giving a good picture into the mindset still out their and sneaky "sale agreed" strategy thats new to me but nothing as illegal as estate Agents trying to get cash from people who want to nudge past the 317.5K limit & not pay stamp duty! These are crazy times beware the EA's.

 

[SherryTrifle]

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1712814&issue_id=14812

FF overturning land rezoning?? !!! surely a joke or an attempt to reduce supply! I love the quote from dick roche about why he overturned the rezoning,

It would have created a new generation of long-distance commuters consigned to a desperately poor quality of life, the minister told the Irish Independent yesterday.

And the predicted upswing in rents is occuring in america, its just starting to occur here .
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/10/26/D8L0FA5G0.html

 

[Debtwish]

Assume the person was on 50k

In the 9% days he would have probably got a 50k mortgage on average, max of 75k. = 9% by 75k = 6,750

In the 2% days the 50k person got a mortgage of 300k = 300 by 2% =6,000

9% to 14% - 10,500 or increase of 3,750

2% to 4% = 12,000 or increase of 6,000

The big change is that once a bank manager had a conversation regarding uncertainties and 20 year terms, now the conversation is more around his targets to lend more money and can you get someone in the HR dept to look again at what your max bonus would be in a great year and maybe you could rent out the garden shed to tourists so that could be also added to the income side.

It was me that posed the original question on rate increases (I think BigM took some unneccessary stick for it).

It was critisised for being vague but that was deliberate - I wanted to start a debate. The issue of the absolute level of rates versus the rate of increase in those rates is not discussed enough in the wider world I feel. I have heard many argue that "everything's fine because rates will not go back to 10%+ again", but the reality is not as simple as that.

Some interesting responses, but for me, Maine, you've really hit the nail on the head here.

If you are an idiot and started at 2% being maxed out, youre screwed. Yeah its 100%

Therefore, you must be calling a lot people idiots.

 

[Firefly]

thats an idea sell the house to the council hide the money, bribe my way to the top of the housing list get a 400,000 euro house for 13 euro a week might as well sing on the dole and retire

Like your thinking beavis

 

[Firefly]

Measuring property prices by percentage increases (whilst technically correct) does not interest the majority of investors IMO....they're not gonna get too worried when they hear that their 500k property only went up 2% last year...they'll be thinking, great I'm up another 10 grand.

Also, many investors will be thinking along the lines of eg if the 500k house could be sold today for a 100k profit, I would need a return of 10% to match achieve that same 10 grand and where am I going to get that.
People by and large ignore the subsidising costs IMO as they see this as a legit cost of having a investment property.

Btw, I do not agree with this investment appraisal in the least - give me +ve cashflow from day 1...just relaying what I think is happening.

Also people are thinking, sure if rates rise next year I won't be paying into an SSIA so I can still afford to keep the place and sure isn't it going up 10 grand a year and more importantly won't my mates think I'm really cool....a new car is sooo last year...now it's about the 2nd house.....M.A.D...

Firefly

 

[Savvy]

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1712814&issue_id=14812

FF overturning land rezoning?? !!! surely a joke or an attempt to reduce supply! I love the quote from dick roche about why he overturned the rezoning,

It would have created a new generation of long-distance commuters consigned to a desperately poor quality of life, the minister told the Irish Independent yesterday.

And the predicted upswing in rents is occuring in america, its just starting to occur here .
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/10/26/D8L0FA5G0.html

This decision was the correct one for Co. Laois. It doesn't make sense to allow numerous estates to pop up in small villages. For christ sake, one of the villages, Rosenallis has only one pub,a shop and a petrol station. It makes far more sense to encourage the development in the towns that have some kind of decent infrastructure already,especially Portlaoise and Portarlington.
Most locals laughed at this when rezonning was planned. I'm sure there will be many farmers very disappointed with this news!

 

[ajapale]

Try to keep focused on the topic for debate here:

"Current public sentiment towards the housing market?"

Keep politics and general discussion in the LoS section.

 

[topman]

Auction market shows signs of life
AS MANY as eight out of 18 properties sold at yesterday's auctions, some of them above their advised minimum value (AMV).
Six of yesterday's properties were left unsold after auction, but the agents for five of these are now asking prices higher than the agents' AMVs.

This article is in the Indo today.... are we seeing a slight pick up before the christmas.....

 

[whathome]

Auction market shows signs of life
AS MANY as eight out of 18 properties sold at yesterday's auctions, some of them above their advised minimum value (AMV).
Six of yesterday's properties were left unsold after auction, but the agents for five of these are now asking prices higher than the agents' AMVs.

This article is in the Indo today.... are we seeing a slight pick up before the christmas.....

Look at the list...
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1712854&issue_id=14812

Every single Dublin property was withdrawn at auction with a handfull selling after auction. Not one sold under the hammer. Another miserable result but obviously the property section of a newspaper would have to say it "shows signs of life". Also - vendors never sell under AMV at auction, it's Advised Minimum Value and is frequently set up to 20% below what the agent believes the property will sell for.....if it sells!

 

[mollser]

I'm a bear on the market, I think in general its crazily over priced. I was keeping an eye on a house, 2 doors down from me, very similar to this house
[broken link removed]
but priced at €635k. A bit much I thought, and when I was only the second person to view it in an hour at its open viewing 2 saturdays ago, I really thought the market had tanked. These houses attracted huge viewings when I bought 2 years ago.

But lo and behold, only 3 weeks on the market it has gone sale agreed, and I believe for the asking price of €635k, but I would love to find out for sure.

My only point being I was keeping an eye on this to point out a future price drop, but low and behold its gone, so there may be life in some parts of the market left yet???

 

[whathome]

so there may be life in some parts of the market left yet???

Of course there is, I sold a house a few weeks ago, and then bought one

Nobody said the market was dead, it's just not doing very well.

I'm thinking this is the house you were talking about : [broken link removed]=
Someone probaby fell in love with it and made an offer that the vendor was happy with. If that kind of thing never happened, there wouldn't be a market!

 

[mollser]

I'm thinking this is the house you were talking about : [broken link removed]=
Someone probaby fell in love with it and made an offer that the vendor was happy with. If that kind of thing never happened, there wouldn't be a market!

outed !

 

[Guest111]

Morning!
Interesting that NCB predict our population will grow by 30% to 5.3 million by 2020...should keep demand stoked up

 

[whathome]

Morning!
Interesting that NCB predict our population will grow by 30% to 5.3 million by 2020...should keep demand stoked up

Unfortunately for the property market, the population growth will not be in the home buying age profile. Take a look at the demographic disaster coming up for the Irish property market:

[broken link removed]

 

[plaudit]

Morning!
Interesting that NCB predict our population will grow by 30% to 5.3 million by 2020...should keep demand stoked up

Thats about 92000 people a year. At 2.5 people per house, which is about the average, thats about 37000 houses a year.

 

[Eirmail]

Morning!
Interesting that NCB predict our population will grow by 30% to 5.3 million by 2020...should keep demand stoked up

An extra 1.2 million people ,many low income foreigners probably would need about 500,000 properties in 14 years or 35,000 a year. This year we are building 90,000 properties.

Or are my figures wrong?

 

[Guest111]

Yeah, but "production" isn't going to remain at 90,000 units a year. An increase of 1.2 million people is a fair old increase. If they are immigrants, a lot will rent surely?