Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Calina said:
You cannot say with any certainty that interest rates will not go over 5% in the same way that no one could have predicted that they would go down as far as two or two and a half.

Most people are not happy to rent for life - they would be if the legislation here protected their long term interests more effectively but it does not.

Regarding the trusts and pensions being further liberalised - this is at this point still only speculation.

As regards your latter two items, 1) sufficient supply is predicated on the place not being deserted and given the large inward migration in the past three or four years this cannot really be relied upon and 2) "long haul" this is still speculation. A lot of people who are in things for the long haul often don't wind up staying there. Like my two previous landlords who sold from under me, for example.
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Right, so any justification I give for my few is based on total speculation, whereas your few is based on?...it's all speculation!

Sorry to hear about your landlord problem incidently...agreed the law in this area need a radical overhaul.
 
Suppose an upside to a crash would be seing some of the obnoxious EA types who've shown me places over the last few years humbled...I'm sure everyone has had some experience of their antics
 
Andy Doof said:
Right, so any justification I give for my few is based on total speculation, whereas your few is based on?...it's all speculation!

Sorry to hear about your landlord problem incidently...agreed the law in this area need a radical overhaul.
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I'm glad to see you have figured out how to use the quote button.

Secondly, uhem, whether you like it or not the following is not speculation:

Property prices on average = 11 times average salary. Historically it is 1:6. The usual response to that is "it's different here and anyway there is two salaries" to which I respond "not always, and if there are children then all bets are off because creche fees usually swallow one salary".

Property has risen roughly 270% over the past ten years. Salaries have not.

What pays for property? Salaries. If property costs are rising faster than salaries then there comes a point - fact - whereby you run out of money. It is mathematically impossible for that not to happen.

We reached that point a while ago. That is why we have all sorts of creative mortgage products on the market along with loosened lending criteria, 100% mortgages, interest only, repayment holidays, 35 and 40 year terms.

On the other hand, it is pure speculation to say that the government will allow property to be treated the same as pensions. I'm not saying it won't - but my thesis depends on things which have already happened. Your views are supported only by things which might happen.

The law on tenancy got overhauled 2 years ago. I doubt it will be revisited for a while yet.
 
Re: Could it happen here................??

Duplex said:
The new homes sales increase in the US were based on 'revised' figures.
[broken link removed]
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If sales are falling too, you won't hear me complain at all.

Although, the evidence you presented in that link there is maybe not up to the usual standard! ;)

sept # is a RISE OF 5.3% !!!​

how's this? LOL HAHAHAHAHAHA​

it's because the August # was revised down to 1.02m from 1.50m !!! HAHAHAHAHA!​

median prices down 9.7% y/y​

This release is a freaking disaster​
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Question for Andy Doof:

If you are already heavily mortgaged which scenario is worse for you:

A) Interest rates jumping from 9% to 14%?....OR

B) A tightening of interest rates from 2% to 4%?

I should ask this question at dinner parties.....;)
 
Wonder have they introduced "Property Economics" as a class in the Uni's yet? It would be very interesting course - think of it...supply & demand turned on it's head...the more you increase the price the higher the demand!
 
Calina said:
That is why we have all sorts of creative mortgage products on the market along with loosened lending criteria, 100% mortgages, interest only, repayment holidays, 35 and 40 year terms.
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And this is the key IMO. I still think that there's a bit to go before we can categorically call the end.
With another 25bps on the mortgage rates coming on Dec 7th, the affordability is being squeezed harder and harder. The only ammo left for the banks are even longer terms and ever more creative mortgages (such as option ARMs etc). Once they've been exhausted the end will truly be in sight.

I don't think it's any coincidence that the collapse of the US market occured around the same time that a lot of the option ARMs were being rolled for the 1st time (usually 2/3 yrs after inital drawdowns)
 
Calina said:
Property prices on average = 11 times average salary. Historically it is 1:6. The usual response to that is "it's different here and anyway there is two salaries" to which I respond "not always, and if there are children then all bets are off because creche fees usually swallow one salary".
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Yes, I think the equivalent ratio in the states was 8:1 and having been through painfull asset bubbles before, a lot of commentators in the states believe it needed to come back to a bit of reality i.e. 5-6 times.

11:1 in ireland has never been sustainable longer term.
 
You're forgetting that 35 and 40 year mortgages actually exist now...they did not back then.
Also most families are two income now...they were not back then.
Finally couples are having less children.
 
Andy Doof said:
You're forgetting that 35 and 40 year mortgages actually exist now...they did not back then.
Also most families are two income now...they were not back then.
Finally couples are having less children.
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But most couples do not earn 2 full salaries over 35/40 years
 
Andy Doof said:
Also most families are two income now...they were not back then.
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Will you at least read the previous posts before spouting your inane shight (sic)

Calina said

"the usual response to that is "it's different here and anyway there is two salaries" to which I respond "not always, and if there are children then all bets are off because creche fees usually swallow one salary"."
 
Debtwish said:
Question for Andy Doof:

If you are already heavily mortgaged which scenario is worse for you:

A) Interest rates jumping from 9% to 14%?....OR

B) A tightening of interest rates from 2% to 4%?

I should ask this question at dinner parties.....;)
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Eh, the first one?
My spidey senses are telling me I'm wrong though!
 
Wonder have they introduced "Property Economics" as a class in the Uni's yet? It would be very interesting course - think of it...supply & demand turned on it's head...the more you increase the price the higher the demand!
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Actually its been there for years - Its aptly called "Perverse Demand"

Property in Ireland has been on a Perverse demand curve for the last decade or so.

Now that the situation and inputs are changing it will be interesting to see it getting back to a normal demand curve ! :)
 
Andy Doof said:
You're forgetting that 35 and 40 year mortgages actually exist now...they did not back then.
Also most families are two income now...they were not back then.
Finally couples are having less children.
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You're really missing the point, aren't you? The longer term mortgages only exist because property became unaffordable.

The second income cannot be depended on purely because one party may interrupt work to have children and children, while great bringers of joy are also an economic liability.

Finally - the fact that couples are having fewer children will mean that the supply of future potential house purchasers will fall. This will have an impact on the longer term view.
 
Andy Doof said:
You're forgetting that 35 and 40 year mortgages actually exist now...they did not back then.
Also most families are two income now...they were not back then.
Finally couples are having less children.
Click to expand...

Sounds like another nail in the coffin for the demographics then... And the viability of long term property investment in Ireland!
 
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