pretty much, not unless there was a market not covered by the OECD. I think it is fair to say there has never been a market that has experienced 200% growth at all! let alone without a crash! We are in uncharted waters.
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pretty much, not unless there was a market not covered by the OECD. I think it is fair to say there has never been a market that has experienced 200% growth at all! let alone without a crash! We are in uncharted waters.
O
Open_Window
Guest
Thats really interesting, FigureIII.1 shows that from the High of 1981 to the begining of the current cycle 1996 we had rather stagnant growth, approx 6 years of a downward trend and the 9 years of up and some straight.
In 1981, graphs peaks jsut above 100
This was not repeated untill 1996 were it came in jsut under 100.
So what I personally conclude form that report is that you average punter time immemorial, has neither the time nor notion to read such reporter thus will damed to walk from boom to bust for eternity. A bit like poor old Ulysses, ah jaysus.
In 1981, graphs peaks jsut above 100
This was not repeated untill 1996 were it came in jsut under 100.
So what I personally conclude form that report is that you average punter time immemorial, has neither the time nor notion to read such reporter thus will damed to walk from boom to bust for eternity. A bit like poor old Ulysses, ah jaysus.
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Neffa
Guest
I'd not looked at the OECD report in a while - just glancing again shows one striking point I'd overlooked before - the quickest recovery from a peak was 12 quarters (3 years) in Switzerland and most took 5 years or more to rebound.
I really cannot see the bulk of the "I'll hold on through the correction" holding onto their property if we face a 5 year downhill slope - that kind of time is long enough for people to start worrying if it will ever go up again
I really cannot see the bulk of the "I'll hold on through the correction" holding onto their property if we face a 5 year downhill slope - that kind of time is long enough for people to start worrying if it will ever go up again
some of the newsflow today
1. UK central bank talks about risks of inflation and the need in the new globalised economy to keep inflation low as once it gets high it is difficult to control - guarantees interest rate rise in UK and opens possibility of one more in new year.
2. German IFO confidence jumps
3. Fed leaves interest rates on hold and has plenty to say on inflation
4. Oil jumps up $2 a barrel well into 60 plus as OPEC sets this as target
5. Australian inflation on the move also
All these point to 3.5 % in December and IMO the risks are increasing of further rises in interest rates towards 4% in new year. IMO 4% is where the stress fracture could really become a break for the irish housing market. IMO if it holds at 3.5% then a 20% drop may see us escape.
For the steady as she goes brigade the private economy is borrowing up to c1300 million a week mostly for property. Total investment in irish technology co's on the other hand for the full year will just make it over 200 million - less than one days property borrowing.
1300 million a week is 325 euros a week for everyone living in the country so no wonder we are doing great.
1. UK central bank talks about risks of inflation and the need in the new globalised economy to keep inflation low as once it gets high it is difficult to control - guarantees interest rate rise in UK and opens possibility of one more in new year.
2. German IFO confidence jumps
3. Fed leaves interest rates on hold and has plenty to say on inflation
4. Oil jumps up $2 a barrel well into 60 plus as OPEC sets this as target
5. Australian inflation on the move also
All these point to 3.5 % in December and IMO the risks are increasing of further rises in interest rates towards 4% in new year. IMO 4% is where the stress fracture could really become a break for the irish housing market. IMO if it holds at 3.5% then a 20% drop may see us escape.
For the steady as she goes brigade the private economy is borrowing up to c1300 million a week mostly for property. Total investment in irish technology co's on the other hand for the full year will just make it over 200 million - less than one days property borrowing.
1300 million a week is 325 euros a week for everyone living in the country so no wonder we are doing great.
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Moneyfool
Guest
Well done whizzbang, they'll be teaching those stats in schools in a few years time and asking how come so many were so thick they did'nt see the brick wall coming.
This I thought was one of the most interesting pieces of opinion today (from the BOE no less). Because globalisation is holding down inflation, it may require higher than "normal" levels of interest rates to bring down the stubborn inflation that remains. It goes completely against the grain of those who argue that we are in a new paradigm where globalisation = low inflation = low interest rates. Now it looks like globalisation = lower inflation = high interest rates to bring down inflation that remains. Bad news for borrowers.
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JayDub
Guest
And who would want to live in their cheap houses like these ( €320k ) right beside one of the world's great innovation areas that gave rise to Microsoft, Amazon, Boeing, Starbucks etc.
[broken link removed]
I'll have to pass on that and upgrade to this €337,000 beauty. Which "Ron Byrne & Remax are delighted to bring to the market". "This exquisite Detached, Spacious modern Bungalow" "It is a reluctant sale and the Buyer Stands to acquire a very special project."
Have you ever heard so much s***e in your life, take a look at the photos, it looks like it belongs in post hurricane New Orleans. When the crash does happen blame the real estate agents who push crap like this.
[broken link removed]
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maxlovecok
Guest
I am an estate agent in Dublin. I can definitely see a marked change in the market. Properties are just not shifting these days. The phones have stopped ringing.
The buyers are now being chased whereas 2 months ago they were just ignored because they were made to do all the chasing. There is a glut of properties on the market and we get more and more listings each day. But still the phones don't ring.
Any offers that we get are well below the asking price. This was unheard of in the past. Sellers are being asked to drop their prices and I think this is just the start.
I was selling property in Australia when their market topped after ten years of boom. Ridiculous prices but nowhere near as crazy as here.
The buyers are now being chased whereas 2 months ago they were just ignored because they were made to do all the chasing. There is a glut of properties on the market and we get more and more listings each day. But still the phones don't ring.
Any offers that we get are well below the asking price. This was unheard of in the past. Sellers are being asked to drop their prices and I think this is just the start.
I was selling property in Australia when their market topped after ten years of boom. Ridiculous prices but nowhere near as crazy as here.
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MadPad
Guest
interesting, always good to get some new info! 325 euros a week for each of the 4M people of new borrowing...
Im not trying to dismiss it but is there any most of this is counted twice? banks selling on loans or whatever?
Because even if a fraction of it is new loans taken out by consumers it is a very sobering figure....
how old is the data? (again, just trying to work out is it from the spring or last month or whatever?)
Thanks for that report from the front maxlovecok ( quite a handle there by the way). Can you give us an indication of who is trying to sell i.e. investors etc.
So what are EAs making of the market? are the going to start talking down prices to keep stock moving? Or are they planning on one more push?
also, does anyone believe the Soft landing theory?
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baby_tooth
Guest
alot of talk going on re: how far prices will drop and everyone giving out about the guberment.
what about bord penala and planning regulations, combined with builders lobbiest and our antiquated system of county councillors who have the ability to ignore professional advice by means of thier planners and sanction permission for schemes that cause more harm than good.
On another point, alot of ppl here seem to figure yield as the the only factor to be considered in calculating yield.
There is anothe factor, coming from the basic principles of finance, and this is the PVOG, present value of growth of the asset.
i agree that the mkt is terribbly overpriced but not to the extent as what some ppl are suggesting.
And a crash has some benefits for the economy, call it trimming the fat as such, but when backs are to the wall, the strongest will emerge and also, alot of ppl with good enterpurinal ideas have been swayed from their enterprise for any number of reasons in ireland in the last few years, why easier money to be made else where.
As an economist who has done some work for some large developers on the side, i have meet some well qualifed ppl working a shovel on building sites, and have considered it myself from time to time, with take home pay of well over 1000 a week not to include nixers....why be a doctor, or a computer tech working on a home project in your garage when you could be laying tiles for 400 euro into your pocket for 5 hours work.
bord penaula need to go up,
current dublin building stock needs to be razed and upgraded and extended up.
infrastrucutre decisons need to be taken away from politicans who all have vested interests in their constituncies and given to a central planning authority.
what about bord penala and planning regulations, combined with builders lobbiest and our antiquated system of county councillors who have the ability to ignore professional advice by means of thier planners and sanction permission for schemes that cause more harm than good.
On another point, alot of ppl here seem to figure yield as the the only factor to be considered in calculating yield.
There is anothe factor, coming from the basic principles of finance, and this is the PVOG, present value of growth of the asset.
i agree that the mkt is terribbly overpriced but not to the extent as what some ppl are suggesting.
And a crash has some benefits for the economy, call it trimming the fat as such, but when backs are to the wall, the strongest will emerge and also, alot of ppl with good enterpurinal ideas have been swayed from their enterprise for any number of reasons in ireland in the last few years, why easier money to be made else where.
As an economist who has done some work for some large developers on the side, i have meet some well qualifed ppl working a shovel on building sites, and have considered it myself from time to time, with take home pay of well over 1000 a week not to include nixers....why be a doctor, or a computer tech working on a home project in your garage when you could be laying tiles for 400 euro into your pocket for 5 hours work.
bord penaula need to go up,
current dublin building stock needs to be razed and upgraded and extended up.
infrastrucutre decisons need to be taken away from politicans who all have vested interests in their constituncies and given to a central planning authority.
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baby_tooth
Guest
carrying on from the planing point, the government are currently trying to add inherent value to properties by improving infrastructure as quickly as possible, some might say (esri & oecd) too quickly to get value for our money.
high end jobs are being transferred out of ireland, not just the india-type jobs. the international funding cost are increasing for irish banks, over and above the ecb window increases.
international sentiment is changing at the higher levels of the decision making ppl throughout europe....ie: I know of four companies who hired in economists and cost analysts to look at countires to locate too. Ireland is being striken of this list almost imediately as sunk-fixed and most importantly variable costs are just too high, and our, well above eu average, inflation is only going up due to liquidity squeeze and energy costs.....
prices will drop and stagnate for far too long, large drops such as 40% or more is very unlikely imo at moment.
high end jobs are being transferred out of ireland, not just the india-type jobs. the international funding cost are increasing for irish banks, over and above the ecb window increases.
international sentiment is changing at the higher levels of the decision making ppl throughout europe....ie: I know of four companies who hired in economists and cost analysts to look at countires to locate too. Ireland is being striken of this list almost imediately as sunk-fixed and most importantly variable costs are just too high, and our, well above eu average, inflation is only going up due to liquidity squeeze and energy costs.....
prices will drop and stagnate for far too long, large drops such as 40% or more is very unlikely imo at moment.
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maxlovecok
Guest
There are 9 of us working out of our office. They all say the exact same thing, which is "I can't believe how quiet it is."
If the phone rings and it's a vendor looking to sell we will tell them " It might be necessary to put your price into a lower bracket in order to attract more buyers". A diplomatic way of saying you will have to lower your price, and unheard of in the past. It hasn't sunk in with the vendors yet that the good times are over.
When the boom ended in Australia I had a tough job convincing vendors that they wouldn't achieve the price their neighbours got 6 months ago.
I can see the exact same thing happening here.
If the phone rings and it's a vendor looking to sell we will tell them " It might be necessary to put your price into a lower bracket in order to attract more buyers". A diplomatic way of saying you will have to lower your price, and unheard of in the past. It hasn't sunk in with the vendors yet that the good times are over.
When the boom ended in Australia I had a tough job convincing vendors that they wouldn't achieve the price their neighbours got 6 months ago.
I can see the exact same thing happening here.
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maxlovecok
Guest
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2nz
Guest
Lunatics! The effin state of the place. That's why this bubble has to burst!
http://irishhousepricesfalling.blogspot.com/
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maxlovecok
Guest
I can't see a soft landing. Some of the more inexperienced agents think it will go on forever. The more knowledgeable ones talk in whispers that it's going to get rough. But we wouldn't say that to a client.
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SherryTrifle
Guest
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/10/25/D8KVN3000.html
Biggest price drop on record just announced in usa and this while economy is still doing well(in gdp and unemplyment terms) and mortgage rates havent changed much for most people who fix rates at outset.
Biggest price drop on record just announced in usa and this while economy is still doing well(in gdp and unemplyment terms) and mortgage rates havent changed much for most people who fix rates at outset.
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Dannybouy
Guest
Tell us max when the redundancies start. the first to feel the pain are real estate agents as their will be a stand off no sales no commissions. the agents dont care if prices fall as long as sales happen
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