"43,000 landlords exiting the market..." but how many are buying in?

[AlbacoreA]

My own experience was RTB wasn't accurate before or after the IT change. It would take multiple attempts to get information updated. They would constantly lose things sent to them in the post.

My last dealing with them was for them to lose an update. Then half wipe the account. Requiring me to re-register in order to unregister. Parallel to this going through their dispute process, which concluded. But that process wasn't linked to the existing registration updates.

But they are still passing on incorrect information to local authorities. Who then contact people based on that incorrect information.

I would like to say this is unique. But I see the same mindset in other organisations.

 

[AlbacoreA]

When I last looked at their stats it was impossible to look at changes between reports because they change the how they are collated. Considering the problems I have with my own dealings directly with them. I don't have much faith in their stats.

 

[Greenbook]

Guaranteed the RTB are not calculating the data correctly. Change over to their new IT system was a shambles, records of previous tenancies lost on transition to new system , if landlord didn’t re- register on new system then RTB has no idea that tenancy exists

Likely the case. I was thinking that the figures were more accurate now, but based on what you say probably not.

Still policy is being decided based on the Gospel according to the RTB. The number of registered landlords was likely too high in the past, that number may be too low now if they just dumped previous records.

 

[ddraws]

RTB Annual Report 2022 says that there were 246k private tenancies registered with them at the end of 2022. This is down from 297k in 2020 ie. a decline of nearly 20%. The 2023 number will likely be lower.
RTB Annual Report 2022

I had heard there could be issues with the number of landlords registering tenancies rather than a reflection of landlords leaving the market, but this isn't an area I have much knowledge in. Article for info https://dublininquirer.com/2023/08/...rative-that-landlords-are-fleeing-the-market/

 

[AlbacoreA]

Perhaps it smy own bias, but I always felt all the excuses for the RTB stats were to allow a big of wiggle room in the reports so they don't clash so disastrously with the Govt PR on housing.

 

[valery]

There was no question in the census capturing rent a room tenants.

A form is completed for each private household and the CSO definition of same

“A private household comprises either one person living alone or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address with common housekeeping arrangements - that is, sharing at least one meal a day or sharing a living room or sitting”.

Going on the household definition above, I would suggest that some rent a room tenants particularly those in a self contained unit would consider themselves a separate household to the principle occupier and would complete a separate census form. In such a case they would be included in the figure of renting from private landlords.

In the meantime before the CSO investigated the discrepancy, it is used by the likes of Eoin o’Broin and others to claim it’s because landlords are not registering tenancies.

 

[AlbacoreA]

It's used by the govt and RTB to claim landlords are not leaving the market. Even if they were it's nothing to do with govt policies.

It's like the script of a TV soap. It writes itself.

 

[Leo]

Going on the household definition above, I would suggest that some rent a room tenants particularly those in a self contained unit would consider themselves a separate household to the principle occupier and would complete a separate census form.

But they wouldn't receive a separate census form.

All that said, the methodology hasn't changed, so we can assume any errors like that were made in similar numbers in each census. As such trend data is likely a far more accurate reflection of reality than the RTB data

 

[valery]

But they wouldn't receive a separate census form.

In fact they would receive a separate form.
When the enumerator is delivering the forms a separate form can be delivered to all in the dwelling who do not consider themselves to be part of the household as defined by CSO.

 

[Leo]

When the enumerator is delivering the forms a separate form can be delivered to all in the dwelling who do not consider themselves to be part of the household as defined by CSO.

The enumerators are meant to ensure that each household only returns a single form.

Regardless, even if some were managing to fill multiple forms, unless there has been a massive increase in that in the recent census, the data still indicates the narrative of a mass drop in private rental properties is not happening.

 

[Greenbook]

Apparently, there is a problem with Approved Housing Bodies. Some AHB tenants ticked the box for private landlord. Likewise, some students with student accommodation licences may have done so also; this is a separate category with the RTB and would not show up in their private landlord figures. Likewise a tenant in a rent-a-room might have filled out the form on behalf of household. The RTB figure is probably too low. The Census figure may be too high.

Very confused issue which doesn't help policy making. Also very unfortunate that the RTB over counted up until now.

 

[Leo]

Apparently, there is a problem with Approved Housing Bodies. Some AHB tenants ticked the box for private landlord. Likewise, some students with student accommodation licences may have done so also;

We've had AHBs and student accommodation for decades, while accommodation in those sectors has increased since the previous census, the numbers don't come anywhere close to account for the discrepancy, and I don't recall any headlines last time about a discrepancy in the number of units in the AHB sector and households identifying as such.

 

[Greenbook]

We've had AHBs and student accommodation for decades, while accommodation in those sectors has increased since the previous census, the numbers don't come anywhere close to account for the discrepancy, and I don't recall any headlines last time about a discrepancy in the number of units in the AHB sector and households identifying as such.

Take a look at the Oireachtas Housing Committee Hearing yesterday. Eoin O'Broin says up to 10,000 AHB tenancies could have been mis-returned as PRS. The CSO guy said they have identified 1,000 mis-returns in this area so far. I think Professor Michelle Norris first identified this as an issue when the Census number came out. The amount of AHB accommodation has significantly increased since 2016 as has student accommodation blocks.

The Committee hearing also mentioned issues with licencees in rent-a-rooms and family rentals.

 

[valery]

The enumerators are meant to ensure that each household only returns a single form

Of course only 1 census per household should be completed.
But someone occupying a self contained unit under the rent a room scheme should really complete a separate census as they are not part of the main household as defined by CSO. But I agree that while the rent a room scheme has expanded greatly within recent years, the numbers completing a separate form is likely small.

Households were asked if renting who was their landlord - private, local authority or voluntary/co-operative housing body.
The spotlight is on the discrepancy in private rental accommodation but if the household ticked the wrong box, discrepancies should exist in the other categories. Presumably LA and VHB have numbers of their tenants.

 

[Leo]

Take a look at the Oireachtas Housing Committee Hearing yesterday. Eoin O'Broin says up to 10,000 AHB tenancies could have been mis-returned as PRS.

That's a pretty alarming number given it's such a high percentage of the total housing stock in AHBs. However, it still leaves a large variance which suggests that the click-bait headlines suggesting an exodus aren't based in fact. We wound need to see estimates of the number of mis-returns from the previous census to get a sense of whether the number of private tenancies is rising or falling. The questions didn't become any more difficult, so it's likely the rate of errors was reasonably consistent.

 

[Leo]

But I agree that while the rent a room scheme has expanded greatly within recent years, the numbers completing a separate form is likely small.

Have you seen recent numbers for this? The government have only published data up to 2019, even when the topic was raised in the Dail earlier this year.

Households were asked if renting who was their landlord - private, local authority or voluntary/co-operative housing body.
The spotlight is on the discrepancy in private rental accommodation but if the household ticked the wrong box, discrepancies should exist in the other categories. Presumably LA and VHB have numbers of their tenants.

Exactly, I think some are using the numbers to garner headlines without asking the right questions.

 

[T McGibney]

The census should not be used at all to measure how many people are living in one or other type of accommodation. It's merely a snapshot on a given night and date, and maybe an unrepresentative one.

For example, the last census was Sunday, April 3, 2022, a night on which many students living away from home either in private rented accommodation, in college digs, or student self-catering accommodation, were at home with their parents, probably on mid-teem studying for April/May year-end exams, or returning to college the next morning. Had the census been taken the following night, they all would have been recorded elsewhere.

The 1911 census results for some of my relatives show unexplained results where children were recorded as living with uncles and aunts that night, even though they didn't habitually live with them.

 

[Dr Strangelove]

The census should not be used at all to measure how many people are living in one or other type of accommodation.

Oh come on Tommy. That’s literally the purpose of every census for nearly two centuries.

For example, the last census was Sunday, April 3, 2022,

A Sunday in springtime is always chosen for reasons of consistency.

The 1911 census results for some of my relatives show unexplained results where children were recorded as living with uncles and aunts that night, even though they didn't habitually live with them.

LOL. Century-old anecdote preferred over a written record!

 

[T McGibney]

Oh come on Tommy. That’s literally the purpose of every census for nearly two centuries.

My point stands. When I was a kid, the purpose of a census was to measure population, a head count if you like. That has now transformed to add a series of surveys on which policy can be based.

A Sunday in springtime is always chosen for reasons of consistency.

Indeed, a hundred years ago, not many were commuting long distances on Monday mornings and staying at different locations during the week and at weekends.

LOL. Century-old anecdote preferred over a written record!

It's not a century-old anecdote. The 1911 Census record was only published online relatively recently. The written record is misleading.

 

[Leo]

Oh come on Tommy. That’s literally the purpose of every census for nearly two centuries.

Perhaps they just captured details on level of education attained, ability to read/write and disabilities only to lock them away and never refer to them again