Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Afuera said:
Have you actually read the report released by DeutchBank on 11th Oct? This report says that the Irish property market is at the 2nd highest risk of crashing in the EU. Can you show me where the OECD contradict that view?
Click to expand...

Eh, yes I did read it. I wouldn't have referenced it if I hadn't.
They predicted that the Irish property market is in for a soft landing with low single digit price inflation. The stated that Irish house prices will be supported by strong economic fundamentals. They listed the two European countries in most danger as France and Denmark.

Obviously this doesn't sit well with the prevaling view here so you can choose to ignore it with off the cuff remarks questioning whether or not I have researched it.
 
NewMan said:
Eh, yes I did read it. I wouldn't have referenced it if I hadn't.
They predicted that the Irish property market is in for a soft landing with low single digit price inflation. The stated that Irish house prices will be supported by strong economic fundamentals. They listed the two European countries in most danger as France and Denmark.

Obviously this doesn't sit well with the prevaling view here so you can choose to ignore it with off the cuff remarks questioning whether or not I have researched it.
Click to expand...

Eh - From your comments above, it's obvious that you didn't read it. Here is the Deutsche Bank report that Afuera questioned if you had read:

[broken link removed]

Ireland achieves the highest overall risk score with 6.4 points, followed by Spain with 5.9 points. Thus, our model identifies these two countries as the ones where house prices are most likely to correct without any external stimulus.
...
We analysed eight European housing markets and found that the Spanish and the Irish markets are in relative terms the most likely to correct in the future. While the Irish market is to be negatively affected by very strong supply growth and the effect of rising interest rates in a flexible mortgage system, the Spanish housing market is facing particular contagion risk.​
Click to expand...
 
Panzraam said:
Just want to return to something which didn’t seem to get much publicity or attention (or at least not as much as should have). The Daft Q2 report provides the following figures for house prices in 2006 (Base: 2005 = 100) (July’s figures were preliminary)

January 104.7
February 108.3
March 109.3
April 110.5
May 107.8
June 106.6
July 105.4

This process shows that house prices were already dropping in May (before this thread was even a glimmer in miju’s eye) and had dropped almost 5% by July (if there were seasonal reasons for this they don’t show up in 2005).
Click to expand...


Thats interesting, so the trend or sentiment started to turn months before Michael McDowell made his now world famous comments on Stamp Duty.

Also if the trend is continued we could see something like,

January 104.7
February 108.3
March 109.3
April 110.5
May 107.8
June 106.6
July 105.4
Speculation from here,
Aug 104.2
Sep 103.0
Oct 101.8

Is this realistic?
 
Open_Window said:
Thats interesting, so the trend or sentiment started to turn months before Michael McDowell made his now world famous comments on Stamp Duty.
Click to expand...

Exactly. This is about interest rates not stamp duty.

€500k IO Mortgage - Monthly repayment Nov '05 = €1458
Monthly repayment now = €1979

But it's all about stamp duty the media says - yeah right. By spinning the stamp duty story it gives the impression that somehow the government is controlling this and has the power to sort it out, when the reality is that the government lost control of the housing market years ago.
 
Do you think we should post this forum to a few TDs, emails the small guys in opposition, I have no time for the current incumbants. They are way out of whack.

Or shall we let them go throught the motion and do the same old routine while the Property Bubble explodes.

I f Iwas in oppoosition I think I would like to stay out of government just 12 more extra months just to see how its going, You see if new guiys get in they may be out on their ear and blamed for the misdeeds of the current shower as the chaso unfolds.

Oh the computations.. back to falling house prices & the property market tanking overall.
 
Open_Window said:
I have no time for the current incumbants. They are way out of whack.
Click to expand...

OW,
Please keep to the topic "Current public sentiment towards the housing market?" General political observations can be made in Letting Off Steam and Shoot the Breeze.
aj
 
I think there is a bit of a brainwashing censentual air about this thread. Many (most) are predicting a collapse in prices, yet despite interest rates already up 63%, the market has barely budged on the whole, with many prices static, or down 5-10% on some less desireable propertries. The fact remains that there is continuing to be a huge demographic demand and local authorities are still too slow in granting permission to keep up with demand, which will continue to constrain supply into the future. Many predictions put the increase in population in the greater Dublin area at 1 million over the next 15-20 years. When america experienced its dempgraphic bulge in the 1970's, interest rates went from 23% to around 26% to quell demand, but it did not have the desired effect. There are many speculating about the many emigrants going back to the eastern bloc countries, once they can. The fact is their homeland is still being ruled by the old backward commie brigade, and are grossly mis-administering their countries, ensuring continued economic stagnation. Until they have their revolutions they will be stuck with mediocrity!
 
Anyone listen to Ryan Turbidy this morning(I usually don't but wife's car only has radio one)?
He had a guy on, I think George Lee who did the property bubble program on RTE a few weeks ago. He really tore into the government, banking and the building sector. He had all the facts and figures as well.
He said we live in a sick society where peoples dreams and aspirations are based on property, timber decking, Jamie Oliver kitchens and Nigela Lawson cook books.
It was funny when they sent someone out and about in Galway asking about peoples homes. One guy had a sauna in his en suite, another an ensuite in all five bedrooms and the poor woman who couldn't find a house that had two paddocks. He said young people listening to the program would feel sick listening to the people prattle on. I'm in my mid 20's and I did feel sick.
He explained how all the government tax breaks, section 23, banks importing foreign money, etc where feeding the bubble.
They said they would do a follow up piece on the program in the future.
 
In light of NIBs new mortgage product (lower interest rates) and the possibility that other mortgage providers will lower their rates what will this mean to the property market?

People can now borrow more than they could previously and will this feed in to keeping prices high?

From reading the press release NIB are offering around .5% margin over ECB rate versus other providers who currently offer around 1% margin.
 
badabing said:
I think there is a bit of a brainwashing censentual air about this thread. Many (most) are predicting a collapse in prices, yet despite interest rates already up 63%, the market has barely budged on the whole, with many prices static, or down 5-10% on some less desireable propertries.
Click to expand...

How can you say that the market has barely budged? Compare how you describe the market now: "with many prices static, or down 5-10% on some less desirable properties"
....to how it was in the first half of the year when prices were soaring. The change in the market is huge.

SteelBlue05 said:
From reading the press release NIB are offering around .5% margin over ECB rate versus other providers who currently offer around 1% margin.
Click to expand...

It's graded on LTV and is unlikely to move the market in any way. Might help some borrowers with low LTV to ease the burden very slightly but is not significant enough to feed prices...and these are the very borrowers that are unlikely to be struggling anyway.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/1017/nib.html

The new structure is available on mortgages of up to 80% loan to value (where the customer already owns 20% of the home). A margin of 0.5 points will be applied to the first portion of the mortgage up to 50%, 0.6 points up to 60% and 0.8% up to 80%.
Click to expand...
 
SteelBlue05 said:
In light of NIBs new mortgage product (lower interest rates) and the possibility that other mortgage providers will lower their rates what will this mean to the property market?

People can now borrow more than they could previously and will this feed in to keeping prices high?

From reading the press release NIB are offering around .5% margin over ECB rate versus other providers who currently offer around 1% margin.
Click to expand...

If the whole Banking sector introduces similar products, then it could negate the effect of one or two 25 basis point rate hikes, but this is for existing homeowners only. You need to have significant equity already to take full advantage of this offer.

So while it is welcome news for SOME homeowners, it will not make much difference to most first time buyers.

It is also bad news if you are a bank shareholder - widespread introduction of these products will surely erode margins across the board. The Banks will be under serious shareholder pressure to cut costs and improve productivity going forward.
 
badabing said:
I think there is a bit of a brainwashing censentual air about this thread. Many (most) are predicting a collapse in prices, yet despite interest rates already up 63%, the market has barely budged on the whole, with many prices static, or down 5-10% on some less desireable propertries. The fact remains that there is continuing to be a huge demographic demand and local authorities are still too slow in granting permission to keep up with demand, which will continue to constrain supply into the future. Many predictions put the increase in population in the greater Dublin area at 1 million over the next 15-20 years. When america experienced its dempgraphic bulge in the 1970's, interest rates went from 23% to around 26% to quell demand, but it did not have the desired effect. There are many speculating about the many emigrants going back to the eastern bloc countries, once they can. The fact is their homeland is still being ruled by the old backward commie brigade, and are grossly mis-administering their countries, ensuring continued economic stagnation. Until they have their revolutions they will be stuck with mediocrity!
Click to expand...


what do we have?
 
"How can you say that the market has barely budged? Compare how you describe the market now: "with many prices static, or down 5-10% on some less desirable properties"
....to how it was in the first half of the year when prices were soaring. The change in the market is huge."

Many properties are still fetching as much now as they did 6 months ago

"What fo we have"

We have;
The 5th highest GDP per head in the world
The 8th highest purchasing power in the world per head
The 10th highest human development index
5th highest econimic freedom index
6th highest economic growth
12th most competitive country
10th best business environment
4th highest no. of patents in force per capita
7th for foreign direct investment
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top