Is there any downside to a big punt on this?
Based on recent results and on the theoretical odds for
each line and not allowing for a big jump in sales.
The chances of winning nothing are over 94% and that doesn’t change.
The chances of winning more than €10 is 1 in 300 and that doesn’t change.
The chances of winning the jackpot of €20m outright is around 1 in 11 million and worth about €2
Chances of a share through Match 5 + Bonus ball which is 1 chance in 1.7 million which could be outright plus residual chances of the jackpot being pushed even further down the line are worth about €10
about €13 in total for each €2 line.
If sales double this roughly knocks about €6 off this figure.
The downside if you say bought 5 million lines for €10m is that there would be say 25% chance you don’t share in the jackpot and you would lose the vast bulk of that. Note that you no longer expect €13 per line as you have now vastly increased the chances of sharing albeit with yourself!
If you buy all 11 million possible lines, you definitely win at least a share of the jackpot. The pot would be about €30m as half of your over €20m spend will be taken by the NL. You would need to win outright with no sharing for it to make sense.
Boss I should warn you that you may lose on such an investment even though the odds would be tilted in your favour but much less so than for a much smaller punt.