Will there be a run on Irish banks from 2015?

[Dave Vanian]

From around 2010, a lot of the bailed-out Irish banks were offering good 5-year fixed rates to bring in business. I know that take-up was pretty good. In particular, millions of pension money was moved to fixed-rate deposits held within pension products.

Now that rates are far lower so when all these fixed-rate deposits start maturing, my guess is that the monies will be withdrawn and either moved to a different bank, or on the pension side, switched into alternative pension funds.

Just wondering what the impact might be on the Irish banks if they lose millions in deposits over a period of a couple of years?

 

[Gerry Canning]

From around 2010, a lot of the bailed-out Irish banks were offering good 5-year fixed rates to bring in business. I know that take-up was pretty good. In particular, millions of pension money was moved to fixed-rate deposits held within pension products.

Now that rates are far lower so when all these fixed-rate deposits start maturing, my guess is that the monies will be withdrawn and either moved to a different bank, or on the pension side, switched into alternative pension funds.

Just wondering what the impact might be on the Irish banks if they lose millions in deposits over a period of a couple of years?

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By 2015 ourselves and EU will have concocted a muddlled response to Bank Ratios and Deposits. These good fixed rates have been a double edged sword for the Banks . I do not see them being missed b the Banks and as I say we will muddle up a response because we have the time .

 

[Lightning]

Nothing to worry about here.

Irish bank balance sheets [broken link removed] from a deposit / liquidity perspective. They will be able to handle some 5 year money moving out of the banks, which I think will be relatively small scale.

 

[Monksfield]

It is entirely logical for large deposits to flow towards banks with strong sovereigns at their backs. Unless whatever bank resolution regime is agreed expressly prohibits countries from compensating depositors (obviously over and above what the deposit guarantee scheme offers - €100k) it will be completely rational to move large deposits to countries in better financial condition.

Banks in such countries offer lower rates but it will be worth sacrificing a small part of what is a pretty measly return anyway for the additional comfort in relation to capital.