That's an excellent link Prosper.In the attached link if you scroll down towards the bottom you'll see how the virus spreads in a classroom.
A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air
The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposureenglish.elpais.com
Is there an issue with who is considered a close contact in Irish schools?
I caught the tail end of an RTÉ interview with a HSE representative who, when asked, had no information regarding the number of cases associated with recent school clusters.
When were people saying that there was no evidence of human to human transmission?Yes. I've started to notice when HSE \ NPHET respond to a question in the 'passive' voice e.g. "We have no evidence that..."
That immediately makes me suspicious.
If someone uses the active voice... i.e. We conducted the following analysis and X... then I believe them.
I remember when "there was no evidence" of human to human transmission... "no evidence" of presymptomatic spread... etc
When were people saying that there was no evidence of human to human transmission?
I remember people saying that there was very low levels of asymptomatic transmission. I think it is still the case that rates of asymptomatic transmission are low. Have a look at Prosper’s link above.
This is going back to late January for human to human transmission
I think it's fair to say that we have considerably more data now. In late January there was no data outside China and very little from China. Therefore trends and statistics derived from much larger sample sizes over a much larger geographical area and a much longer time period are much more meaningful.Yes. There was a now infamous tweet posted on 14 January 2020 on the WHO website, which stated that preliminary investigations by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus identified in Wuhan, China. On the same date a different WHO expert warned of mass human transmission.
There is not enough big data regarding asymptomatic transmission to call it either way.
I don't know if it is still the case here in Ireland, but tracing that only goes back 48 hours is very unsatisfactory and could attribute the source of contagion incorrectly.
I think it's fair to say that we have considerably more data now. In late January there was no data outside China and very little from China.
My reference to the January WHO tweet was in relation to @odyssey06's post #10, which in turn was in response to one of your questions in post #9.
Research since then, while it has provided more insight, generally stops short of firm conclusions.
The contact tracing problem is not unique to Ireland.
Lack of data on the timing of exposure and the onset of symptoms relative to the testing date is, with few exceptions, a global problem.
It necessitates assumptions of the true identification of index cases, which leads to assumptions of the infection status of contacts with positive or negative results and assumptions of incubation periods.
Global research is hampered by this and so reputable experts are reticent in drawing definitive conclusions about pre-symptomatic & asymptomatic spread and also the role of children in the spread.
Understandably, there is wishful thinking regarding viral spread by children, but at present, we just don’t know.
What we can't do is become paralyzed into indecision based on fear and a very narrow focus on what impacts this disease is having on our society.
I'm seeing in some of the more opinion based media reporting. The hard cases where someone young is badly affected being reported as if it is something other than a statistically irrelevant outlier, the talk of long Covid as if there is a tsunami of further illness about to overwhelm us. The calls for further lockdowns despite the guidance from the WHO stating that they should be a short term measure to allow health services the space to get their house in order. That sort of thing.Who is doing that?
become paralyzed into indecision based on fear and a very narrow focus on what impacts this disease is having on our society.
In your opinion.That is just some media reports.
That doesn't equate to:
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