Why not call in the IMF? Whats the downside?

[rogeroleary]

The usual discussions about gloom & doom over coffee / lunch in the job and people talking about possible solutions, the one thing that keeps coming up is "at this rate we could have the IMF coming in".

What I can understand is, what is the problem with the IMF coming in? As I see it this government, and the possible alternatives and highly unlikely to make any of the seriously radical decisions to curb expenditure and remove unsustainable wastage that they have created over the last 15-20 years.

Bringing in the IMF would mean that they could lend us the cash but then insist that we address some of the structural issues such as social welfare expenditure, pensions, public service numbers, and many of the other things that make us uncompetitive but no government will ever really address.

By the IMF providing a dictat the government could then turn around to the vested interests, shrug the shoulders and say "it's not us, it's the IMF that's making us do this" and we could all get out of this hole.

So what's the downside?

Roger

 

[Towger]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

So what's the downside?

Well that depends on who you are, or who you work for!
The IMF work on the principle of balancing the books. So, if you take in X euro in taxes, you can only spend X euro. Is this means firing half the Public Servants in the country and dropping the pay of the remaining by 40% and then cutting Social Welfare payments by 50%, then they will do it! No messing about.

 

[thespecialon]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

So what's the downside?

Well just search for case studies on IMF interventions in the past..my reading of them wouldnt indicate a great outcome for the countries..But if they did come in and 'fire' half of all public servants(which mainly constitutes Guards,Teachers and Nurses/HealthCare Staff) I dont think that would be good for anyone..Only the super rich would escape unscathed if they came in I think..They could afford personal security to replace the guards,Send their kids to private schools and pay for their private healthcare or go abroad for it !!

 

[rogeroleary]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

The IMF work on the principle of balancing the books. So, if you take in X euro in taxes, you can only spend X euro.

So far so good.............


Is this means firing half the Public Servants in the country and dropping the pay of the remaining by 40% and then cutting Social Welfare payments by 50%, then they will do it! [/quote] Would it really be that bad - my understanding is that the Public Service bill is around €21bn and Social Welfare is about the same. Cutting both by 25% would save in excess of €10bn which is where the govt has said they want to get to.

So, how many former public servants need the pensions they now enjoy? I know several who have pensions several times their outgoings. And in relation to public service numbers - they increased by 100,000 during the Ahearn regime - what are they all doing? In terms of Social Welfare - there are significant poverty traps where "lone parents" or married men with 3-4 kids would need to be paid vastly more than the going rate for them to show any interest in taking paid employment.

I would have thought that the IMF would be able to make obvious decisions that the government / opposition will never make because to do so would mean certain defeat at the next election. This is a home grown monster where the TDs don't look at the bigger picture - the game is survival and if they leave behind a legacy of debt to our kids, well that's someone else's problem!

Roger
PS. The IMF would probably identify that we don't need a Seanad, we only need half the number of TDs (and a smaller % of ministers of different flavours) and a fraction of the 270 local authorities I've just heard them refer to on the radio just now.

 

[Firefly]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

Bring 'em in...the Last Chance Saloon is getting awefully depressing

 

[rogeroleary]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

Bring 'em in...the Last Chance Saloon is getting awefully depressing

Agreed, especially when we keep hearing "wait till you see the next budget" and leaks about carbon tax, property tax, water taxes and so on....... Let's just get on with it so we don't have to see & listen the bearded ones and all that social partnership crap as so ably demonstrated in Dublin Bus over the last few days.

If the body need surgery - let's get it over with sooner rather than later. We can then concentrate of electing some form of government that ttries to demonstrate responsibility as opposed to carving up the cake amongst themselves and their cronies.

Roger

 

[path]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

At least we would know where we stand and what is being done about it

 

[rogeroleary]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

Sounds like we might have a quorum here....... anyone interested in forming a single issue party for June 5th? - we should stroll the bye election for Seamus Brennans seat anyway!

Roger
"Release the IMF Campaign"

 

[Artois]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

Its a real pity that but it looks like a nailed on certainty that they will end coming in. Our Government knows the ship is sinking and has made no genuine effort to get back on track, the opposition talk a good game so long as it does not involve them being forced to give up their double pensions and increments.

Unfortunately it looks like the IMF is coming to town. If it is inevitable, it is probably better that they get here sooner than later.

 

[rogeroleary]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

Fully agree... across lunch I keep hearing how much it would reflect on our international reputation if they did come in, but I can't imagine our reputation is being enhanced with quarterly budgets and political inertia because we happen to have encouraged small minded politicians who think short term. And this follows 10 years of a leader who threw money at everything by way of resolving what should have been difficult discussions.

Roger

 

[mfh1]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

ive been sayin all this for 6 months.the only problem is they need to get here before those buffoons have run up a national debt of 150billion.id be up for that imf party idea

 

[csirl]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

Why do people want the IMF? Can anyone point to any country they've gone into that has thrived afterwards? Their track record is very very poor.

 

[UptheDeise]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

If we bring in the IMF, they will butcher public spending and the public sector. but do you really think that people in the public sector would just stand by and take it? They would be strikes all over the place. What about all the cut backs to our services? People will not put up with it, we would end up with massive civil unrest.

Countries that had the IMF come in are giving the status of basket case and we would find it impossible to attract foreign investment in the future.

The rich would up sticks and leave taking they're capital and jobs with them.

Finally, the IMF wouldn't come in as their broke.

 

[GeneralZod]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

Here's a map of IMF member countries

. North Korea & Cuba are missing.
There must be something worthwhile about the organisation that makes the rest of them want to join.

 

[rogeroleary]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

If we bring in the IMF, they will butcher public spending and the public sector. but do you really think that people in the public sector would just stand by and take it?

Between the time Bertie "I won the money on the nags" came to power and the time he left we increased the number of public servants by 100,000. Looking at things like health, crime and general bureaucracy I really don't think it would be such a bad thing to get back to where we were if it meant we were more sustainable.

Roger

 

[Latrade]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

Though on the downside is the long term affect on our reputation. Declaring yourself bankrupt might get you out of an immediate financial problem, but it doesn't bode well for your future and people's trust in you.

In addition we run the risk of losing the things we (or at least some of us) might want to hold on to. Not just a public health service, but those little things that have irked our much bigger cousins for a long time like corporate tax rates. If we want IMF help, there's a chance the first thing they'll do is get rid of the perks of business in Ireland to suit their own needs.

 

[Askar]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

Though on the downside is the long term affect on our reputation. ...

Good points. Does the IMF not also have its political agenda - much like Cheney's buddies in Halliburton benefited from 'rebuilding' of Iraq.

 

[meatmonger]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

No political party is going to have the guts to make the cuts needed in this country. they (all of them sitting in that chamber (and they should make it a gas chamber)) can't even cut their own payments to themselves for god sakes.

Bring on the IMF before we are debted even more to the necks.

I will vote for any IMF party. Bring them on.

 

[ivor james]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

and what about the hundreds of thousands of people in neg equity with no job? will the IMF simply wipe away their debt? No I dont think so. We will end up like latvia or romania or the like except of course we also have all this debt as well!

 

[meatmonger]

Re: So, what's the problem with the IMF?

We will end up like latvia or romania or the like except of course we also have all this debt as well!

maybe, but both these countries are higher up in the competitiveness league than us. also I think zimbabwe contracted by 45% and we were next worse in the world by contracting 16%. much rather be a latvia.

ps. the imf didn't hand out the big loans for negative equity. that was the governement & banks at the request of the irish people.