Professor Roubini reckons that more than 50% of the bees are now nursing very big losses. Maybe they take the stoic approach that it is all worth while in the general scheme of the bees' group social aspirations.As regards the 'anguish', there's no anguish here. I'm on record as stating price would retrace the best part of a year ago already.
Did I say that? Hey I'm not proud, I got the short term outlook way, way wrong as did Professor Roubini and a host of Nobels.Go on then Duke - tell us we will never see $20,000 ever again.( like you had done once before ).
This has happened numerous times already. Each time we had folks declare BTC dead on arrival. It goes up aggressively and it corrects viciously with nobody pressing pause or bailing anyone out (nobody suspending trading, nobody with their own printing press acting as buyer of last resort) but with its underlying network effect growing the whole time.Professor Roubini reckons that more than 50% of the bees are now nursing very big losses. Maybe they take the stoic approach that it is all worth while in the general scheme of the bees' group social aspirations.
Ok, but do you have it right this time? Will it never see $20k again? Because if you're saying that it's akin to the South Sea Bubble or Tulipmania - then that has to be what you're suggesting, right?Did I say that? Hey I'm not proud, I got the short term outlook way, way wrong as did Professor Roubini and a host of Nobels.
That is my ultimate prediction along with Professor Roubini and the Nobels but I haven’t shorted it since 2018 and I’m not shorting it now.Ok, but do you have it right this time? Will it never see $20k again? Because if you're saying that it's akin to the South Sea Bubble or Tulipmania - then that has to be what you're suggesting, right?
Ok, but you are saying that it will never see $20k again?That is my ultimate prediction along with Professor Roubini and the Nobels but I haven’t shorted it since 2018 and I’m not shorting it now.
Well, I do apologise Brendan if this is tedious for you - but clarity was precisely what I was after. He said it's the South Sea Bubble - but it must not be the South Sea Bubble if it's likely to rise above $20k again. Look at a graphical representation of the South Sea Bubble or Tulipmania and it is ONE big ass candle up, straight down and a flat line. It's not up and down 5x times whilst setting higher lows year on year. The closest thing to doing anything along those lines was Amazon ( which corrected 38% to 50% every year over a 12 year duration as people tried to figure out what it was ).He is clearly not saying that, so I am not sure why you keep asking a question he has answered.
That is an opinion you have expressed without acknowledgement of the fact that you could be wrong. I'm quite happy to accept that Bitcoin can die off but in no way do I see that as a likely outcome over the course of the next decade.The ultimate destination of Bitcoin is zero.
Does this not puncture your South Sea Bubble claim?The bees are fairly buzzing - above 20k again. But what makes me think that the whales have already made off with most of the honey.
Don't get this but you have been banging on about it for a few posts. No way have I been saying they are identical and no way would I state with any certainty any prognosis for the medium term bitcoin price. But it’s ultimate destination is zero. Can’t understand why you were trying to lull me into a prediction that no rational observer could make.Does this not puncture your South Sea Bubble claim?
You compared it with the SSB - and if you're going to make that comparison, then you'll have to justify it. If you don't want me 'banging on' about it, then simply don't make the wayward comparison.Don't get this but you have been banging on about it for a few posts. No way have I been saying they are identical and no way would I state with any certainty any prognosis for the medium term bitcoin price.
See above - It's a well trodden path to find that yourself and Brendan won't confirm if Bitcoin will go to zero within a month/year/decade/100 years. And that's fine if you can't call it to the nearest 100 years. However, if you're going to compare it to the SSB, then I'm challenging that on the basis that in no way did the SSB rise and fall 4-5 times. Neither did Tulipmania. In no way are they fitting or appropriate comparisons.Can’t understand why you were trying to lull me into a prediction that no rational observer could make.
In a recent post on this thread, DiP clarified for you why Bitcoin - which has never claimed to produce a return - is going up in value - year on year (setting higher lows year on year) - adoption. That adoption is set against the backdrop of it being a finite asset. You'll grumble that there is no such adoption - and by comparison with where Bitcoin ( and this discussion ) was in early 2018, you will be 100% wrong.Bitcoin has made no such claims, in fact Satoshi conceded it had no intrinsic value. We have no further information today than 8 months ago. There is no reason why its value was 70k then and 20k today.
I've always stated that my thesis on Bitcoin could be wrong. What is not cool is that yourself and @Brendan Burgess speak in absolutes. There is no disgrace in getting something wrong. However, in speaking in absolutes, don't be surprised if this thing haunts the two of you.I don’t know what will eventually trigger it achieving a price equal to its intrinsic value, but that is where it must end no matter how much the bees buzz.
Less (sic) and less (sic) bitcoiners, really, you sure about that?There are less and less of them, but it's definitely still there, and it wont end well for them.
[…] Now, one of its former asset managers has alleged in a filing to the New York County Supreme Court that this all devolved into nothing more than a grubby, unsustainable Ponzi scheme. Jason Stone, the CEO and founder of KeyFi, who managed billions of dollars worth of cryptocurrency investments on behalf of Celsius from August 2020 to March 2021, said Celsius began to fall apart when the prices of digital assets, such as Ethereum and Bitcoin, soared at the start of last year. […]
Interesting quote in there:Oh well
Gives me a new caption for bitcoin - utterly worthless make-believe.Indian Reserve Bank said:India's Reserve Bank has offered a scathing assessment of cryptocurrencies in its latest financial stability report – saying the risks they create demand attention before they undermine established institutions.
"Cryptocurrencies are a clear danger," the report baldly declares in its Foreword, penned by Reserve Bank governor Shaktikanta Das. "Anything that derives value based on make believe, without any underlying [value], is just speculation under a sophisticated name."
I don't mind you quoting central banks or authoritarian, freedom suppressing, surveillance states and you coming up with utterly worthless make-believe as some sort of tar and feathering catch phrase, Duke. It kind of makes my point for me so I'll help you and bold it out.Gives me a new caption for bitcoin - utterly worthless make-believe.
@tecate please don't be so totally predictable as to call me a Hindu Commie.
I understand perfectly what your Deputy High Priest was saying. He said that out of the current crypto crash, some crypto-centric companies could become the next Amazon. I've pointed out to you that his view is very different to the other alchemists that you've told us you have to have complete faith in.@tecate I thought you understood what the DG of the BoI was saying.
You're the one that puts complete faith in these alchemists - not me. But be honest for at least one second. NEVER would you have suggested that such value could be created within crypto. Over the course of 5 years, you've never made such an admission. And before you go back over the same nonsense (i.e. he wasn't talking about cryptocurrencies), what precisely do you think these crypto startups are working with exactly?if you want to take that as a ringing endorsement of bitcoin, I shouldn't rain on your parade.
I do realise that I do not give due credit for the countries which have adopted bitcoin - El Salvador and the Central African Republic respectively 111th and 184th in world rankings on GDP per capita.
I wonder have we yet seen the first international settlement between these two in bitcoin, one of its supposed major features.
Ah! so you have twisted for yourself that he did actually mean the currencies and not the technology. As I say, it would be unfair of me to try and disillusion you.But be honest for at least one second. NEVER would you have suggested that such value could be created within crypto. Over the course of 5 years, you've never made such an admission. And before you go back over the same nonsense (i.e. he wasn't talking about cryptocurrencies), what precisely do you think these crypto startups are working with exactly?
I would have. There are lots of things I would have said could not happen. But if you think two tiny basket case economies with very dubious governance adopting bitcoin as an all-in bet for their impoverished citizenry outweighs the views of the leaders of 3 billion people ruled by two diametrically opposite ideologies; maybe you should pause to ask yourself are you indulging in a little self delusion.Vent if it helps you to cope, Duke. Whatever works. You've said that this Bitcoin thing has gone on longer than you had imagined it would. What you have never admitted is that since this became a topic of discussion here 5 years ago, everything about Bitcoin and its ecosystem has grown exponentially. You can try and play down the significance of two nation states adopting Bitcoin as an official currency all you want. The fact is that had such a thing been mentioned in 2018, I've no doubt that you would have said no way could that happen.
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