Too much cash savings - how to protect against possible hyperinflation?

Status
Not open for further replies.

MelF

Registered User
Messages
337
OK, long story short. The coronavirus is making me nervous. All this talk of markets crashing, US debts being exposed etc and economies being brought to their knees Venuzuela style?
Basic situ is I have about 600k cash savings spread across Euros/sterling/USdollars and located in each country.
260k interest-only mortgage outstanding on PPR @ interest rate of .05%.

Self-employed freelancer meaning my income is irregular is why I kept such a reserve as 'patting money' but aware I'm seriously overexposed in case of hyperinflation now. If I pay off the mortgage with some of that cash, doesn't hyperinflation mean the debt is devalued too? So I'm not really solving anything.

Panicking here ... which I know leads to irrational decision so greatly appreciate sound advice from some calm heads!
 
It's unlikely that the Corona virus will lead to hyperinflation.

You have €600k cash and €260k mortgage.

If you are very worried, then clear the mortgage as that is the best way to reduce risk.

With €340k cash left over, there is no risk free way of investing.

However, real assets such as property and shares tend to exceed inflation over the long-term.

As you might need access to your cash, property is not liquid.

So you should buy a portfolio of shares. They could well fall further but it's not possible to time the market.

Brendan
 
With 600K cash savings. It's a no brainer to pay off your mortgage. Shares may collapse, governments can lay hands on your cash etc etc but at least your home will be paid for.
 
But am I not robbing Peter to pay Paul if we get v high inflation and the mortgage amount is devalued too?

Was also thinking about land - have been dithering over a purchase and thought now might a good time to pull the trigger ...
 

It’s this fear that convinced me to diversify my portfolio into precious metals, both physical and stocks.
 
Thanks to your own hard work, you’re very comfortable with cash savings that can weather work uncertainty, market instability and other short term irregularities.

Pay off your mortgage and enjoy well-earned peace of mind. Retain sufficient cash to provide for 6 or 9 months income. Choose 8 or 10 great companies and invest the remaining cash in shares for long-term modest growth.


Enjoy your life and try not to get rattled by stuff we can neither control nor foresee. CV19 is worrisome and we don’t know if it’s hype or horror. I’m confident the smart people in medicine will find a solution.

And in your calculations, price in the utility of not worrying.
 
The coronavirus is making me nervous..........Panicking here

Sleepless nights over events you have no control over is not good for your health.

A good use of your hard-earned savings might be to spend a small fraction on treatment that leaves you less prone to anxiety.


Otherwise I am somewhat well informed and I don't see hyperinflation as a material risk at the moment.
 
You're not alone to be worrying or anxious during this difficult time. The scale of the market sell off this week speaks to considerable irrational fear. And while it's perfectly understandable, it's somewhat irrational. We're in for a rocky ride short-term that none of us can time or predict and we don't need to do anything except mind ourselves. As others have said, hyperinflation is not on the cards. Ironically, when the dust settles ...and it will.....we will witness irrational exuberance to the upside.
 
For what it's worth MelF, I also have too much cash saved circa 470k and I'm about to invest with this volatility because I see great value.

Some context.....

I worked and saved hard to ensure I became mortgage free, and I max my pension contributions. This is crucial because it sets you free from debt. That, in itself, is a wonderful achievement because it liberates you from lots of stuff including anxiety. You enjoy the benefit of living in your own home without having to pay for the privilege of using someone else's money. And you have a very tax efficient asset.

I have invested in equities from a young age and now my portfolio is considerable. It started as a hobby because I liked watching companies develop and I'm naturally curious. Oddly enough, as I looked back on it, a quid for the mortgage was matched by as much as I could save. And companies I liked that performed well attracted more of my savings. And over-time, with the benefit of compound interest, consumerism, economic growth and luck, it increased in value. I rarely sell and when I do, it's only as a result of some fundamental change in the business e.g.competition, margin pressure, pricing power etc. or a major project when I refurbished my home in 2005 which proved to be my best ever investment. And as with any collection of anything, I've a couple of superstars, some consistent solid performers, and a few dogs. I review the performance once a year, normally in January, because I don't have the time or interest to watch them closely. To my mind, that just causes unnecessary stress and I'm comfortable with my selections. Sometimes, but not often, I cash out of a dog to invest the proceeds in something better. Moreover, I know that I cannot time the market and that there will be volatility in both directions.

I witnessed wealth destruction on an unimaginable scale when the Celtic Tiger crashed. Many people were swept up in a frenzy collecting 'stuff' with borrowed money that beggared belief. The many who lived within their means were made to feel like idiots. And banks merrily fuelled this procession dishing out money all over the place on all sorts of hair brained schemes that a monkey with an abacus would know it would be better to avoid. As a consequence of watching and witnessing the distress this debacle cast on many innocent people who lost their jobs when businesses folded, the crisis took hold, property crash, mortgage defaults etc. I place an even greater premium on cash now than I ever did. In truth, I recognise that my mental well-being depends on my ability to value cash differently, one part security and one part utility by way of opportunity. Better still, I know that surplus cash earning next to zero is not smart. But it gives me a benefit that has no price and represents a modest % of my assets. That is, until I generate too much and find no opportunity to deploy it. And that's where I am now.......ready to pull the trigger because other things I have looked at don't float my boat, with the exception of a small farm which became a romantic notion when Mrs. Fidgety wondered how I was going to mind myself on my own!

Anyhow, forgive the history, it's purely to explain that it's okay to be unsure, to have doubts and to worry every now and then. We all do. Investing for the long-term will protect your hard earned savings and generate wealth. Of that I am certain. I've done it from modest beginnings and now have enough for a comfortable lifestyle in retirement. It's been butchered this week, maybe next week, maybe for a couple of months, a year, who knows until we get the virus killed but it will be fine when I need it in 7 to 10 years. And I will buy some more of the equities I own, and some I have fancied that have retreated to my price point and I will try to stay healthy and enjoy my life.
 
@Fidgety well done and found you post very informative. You say you started as a hobby investing... Did you do any courses along the way or what resources did you rely on as the portfolio grew? For an education point of view would be interested to know
 
Thank you jimmy1981. I woke this morning and felt like a bit of an eejit for writing a rambling post but I sincerely wanted to help MelF and others with the corrosive issue of anxiety when it comes to making investment decisions. Now to try to answer your question.

My grandfather had a very successful business which went bankrupt when a number of customers took advantage of his decency and never paid him. This had a catastrophic effect on him personally, he was never the same wonderful bright eyed gem, and scarred my mother. When we were kids, she insisted that we open savings accounts and put our pocket money in every month. Communions, confirmation, odd jobs etc...were all directed into theses accounts. We were free to spend this one as we wished but it's amazing how you trim your spending when you've a nest egg, even at that early age. I played a lot of sport and used to buy myself nice gear. As it happens, a German company with 3 stripes made great runners and I bought their shares and still own them today. I started a car wash business with my pals and admired German motor cars, so I bought a few of them, and I still own them today. This interest heightened and I started to read about companies I liked, the strategy they deployed, the quality of management etc etc and as I earned more from working hard, I bought pieces of what I thought were great companies. I noticed that PC's were taking over the world so I bought a piece of the fuel that powers them, software. And so on and so forth rarely changing from this philosophy.

So as my portfolio grew, I would read the annual reports and the quarterly updates with no specific financial know-how but with a keen eye on the fundamentals. And if at any stage these companies pulled back for no apparent reason, I would buy more. Sometimes, without market volatility, companies disappoint and investors retreat. It's almost always fixable and understandable but markets are too short term in attention and the correction is almost always overdone. Today, we have just such an over reaction based on what we don't know and fear. Those who cash out have no other comparable investment opportunity to replace the asset class they've abandoned and invariably will panic trying to get back in. I make no judgement but I believe such herd behaviour ultimately increases anxiety.

It's my view that we don't need any specific skills to participate in a general sense. If the goal is to protect and preserve savings with the added desire to increase wealth for old age, then it's a matter of picking great companies you like, reading about them to inform your self better, and buying a piece of them when the price meets your sense of reasonable. And pullbacks are opportunities to buy in the January sales. I'm not an impulse buyer so if I fancy a suit, I wait for the sales and maybe if it's good value, I'll buy two.

Finally, and importantly, I don't buy speculative or penny stocks. I choose large caps with enormous financial firepower, with dominant positions in the market and ambitious growth plans. With this criteria, there are lots of choices and you don't need to be very smart. And if I get a couple wrong, so what, I learn from failure and welcome it because it makes me better. Hope that helps.
 
People having large amounts of money (above gov guaranteed limit), worried about inflation and market crashing and no one suggesting buying physical gold?
Markets are not for everyone and I doubt that someone who managed to save half a mil and currently panicking because of the virus would keep calm watching the value of his saving going +/- 10-30-50%
And by the way, there's no need to panic...it's a flu virus, sooner it spreads around the world sooner will population become immune to it.
 
Buying physical gold is difficult, best done through specific ETFs or mining companies. And yes, a safe haven in times of difficulty.

Market volatility of the extreme nature we’ve seen recently and which is most likely to continue, is not for the faint hearted. Then again, a longer term time horizon is essential.

Agree that we need to avoid panic but not so with your assertion that the sooner it spreads the better. This virus is sinister and complex and will require all of our know how to kill.

Meanwhile, leaving aside the issue of personal wealth, it’s the common wealth of all that we need to get back on track.
 
Buying physical gold is difficult
Why? I used Merrion gold and Irish gold bullion, never had a problem with any of them. Buying ETF or mining companies means you're back on market with all its volatility. I would recommend sticking to investment gold (24ct, bars, 1oz and havier). And to be clear, not with all your cash!
 
Physical gold requires storage and holding costs, associated transaction costs. Individual mining companies means putting all your gold in one basket so to speak. ETF's are more flexible, convenient, lower entry price, broad spread of companies, and can be focused on the price of the metal or the performance of the companies who mine it. Nothing wrong with either approach, both have merit.
 
My grandfather had a very successful business which went bankrupt when a number of customers took advantage of his decency and never paid him
I think this is a very Irish thing, Ive heard this happen alot especially during the financial crash, people knowingly tricked people even though they knew they would never pay them, the poor subcontractors then. Its something that doesn't happen so much in Britain or the continent. It happens because it is not shown up in Ireland, its accepted
 
To my limited knowledge, the chief culprits of the most egregious instances of sub contractors not being paid were from those who could most afford to pay them. And that's before the wheels came off and it all came tumbling down. I don't think it's accepted anymore, at least I hope so in the sense that many sub contractors, small businesses require payment in advance or deposits and strict payment schedules.
 
@Fidgety so you have been investing for a long time, longer than me anyways, I only started in 2001, did you start in 1980s?, if so how compared to then does today's investment environment differ?, I think it is much harder, the whole demise of whole sections of industry and retail that had existed for many decades and evolved consistently . For example Warren Buffett was a big investor in Gillette for decades , that was one of his show case boring investments , because guys are always going to have to shave right, right, until a decade ago, the millenials ditched that investment for him.
The software company you invested in, did you stick with it through the dot com bust, if so you probably had to wait a decade for it to recover but probably handsomely rewarded now?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.