Tips for Cheltenham 2021

L

Leper

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A famous Corkman related the following story about a trainer who wanted to hold a horse back in a race so the betting odds would improve for his next race. They entered him in a five horse race and colluded with the jockey that he would finish 3rd. True to instructions from the trainer the jockey rode in 3rd. Post race the trainer asked him "How good is the horse?" The jockey replied that "The horse is a speed machine and would beat the first two horses even if he was running backwards." "The horse will win in Cheltenham so?" said the trainer. The jockey replied "I would be very worried about the two horses behind."

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I have a tip for Cheltenham . Its called .......Don"t go ....in the last race. The odds are ....2,500 to 1 ......if caught.
 
Yey - a chance to talk about betting on Askaboutmoney! This site gets better and better.

As the Lep has set the scene with a "humour first" approach, spare a thought for the poor jockeys who need to watch their weight on Christmas Day.....
(203) John Francome Outtake - YouTube

Back to the serious matter, how about we all give our NAP and LAY of the meeting, together with our reasoning. I'm happy to go first! NAP should be where the odds are better than the probability...….for example, I think Chacun pour soi (aka Ruby W!) will probably win......I'm just not sure he's value at current prices!

NAP: Each way double: Appreciate It (7/4) & Energumene (9/4).
Rationale: I believe that both will be placed so that the each way part covers the fun part! I've gone "all-in" here (admittedly at slightly bigger prices). Please note that there may well be less than 8 runners in the Arkle so get your NRNB bets on in time to capture the 1-2-3 on the place side.

LAY: Champ to place in the GC
Rationale: The gelding will not be able to jump sufficiently well to put himself in a position to challenge!

Unlike Paddy Power and others...…….I actually really mean this...……please bet responsibly!
 
SGWidow, I've just become your biggest fan. Let the fun begin . . .
 
Nap: Thyme Hill in the Stayers. Richard Johnson really kicked himself after being pipped by Paisley Park. Seemed to me the way PP won that race coming from the clouds will not be reproduced.
Lay: Envoi Allen. The GE story will have more twists. A move of stables with 2 weeks to go can't be ideal.
BTW I thought that on NRNB the place rules were decided by how many actually race.
This is where we need a bit of blockchain technology to stop me changing my tips after the event.
 
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I've been watching the Shunter since his superb win over Cheltenham fences last November. He got pushed a little and lost stride at leopardstown last month but still finished 3rd.

Problem is he's been entered into 5 races and it will be next week before the actual race is known.

I suspect (hope) the County Hurdle. Hoping cos I have a few quid at 25/1 (currently 12/1 - edit - now as low as 7/1)
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
BTW I thought that on NRNB the place rules were decided by how many actually race.
Click to expand...

Hmmm. I was all set to explain why this is not the case. Certainly has not been my experience in the past. BUT, in looking at this earlier - there are complications so until I have my head all around this, I must warn people to check out the T&Cs of whatever bookie they go with. It gets very muddy the more you look into it and I don't have time unfortunately to set out the different bits of muck. In particular, Skybet has me flummoxed - seems at odds with the position of my regular trading partners, Bet365 and Powers!
 
Looks like Thyme Hill is goosed!
 
Does the Duke and Peemac want to set up a hedge fund with me?

We each have had to date one recommendation:

- Duke to lay EA...…….job oxo
- Peemac to back The Shunter......job oxo
- Yours truly to back Appreciate It...….job oxo

I think there is one recommendation left.....that's to lay Champ for a place tomorrow!

It's a mad business mind you. In the last race today, Mount Ida was 1,000/1 in running and there was just shy of €200 traded on her at that price - ouch.

Sneezy could still be top trainer - Elliott would have had 5 winners already had events not taken the course they did.


********

Edit: I just read the Racing Post. The headline was 999-1...……..it took longer than it should for the penny to drop......it's been a long week!
 
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@SGWidow I have a dilemma. My sister who knows I follow the geegees, but has no interest herself, gave me a recent cash present for my birthday with instruction that it is bet at Cheltenham. I insisted she tells me what to bet in the Gold Cup. She picked Champ Apparently it's a potato food that she likes. It's a method which is as sure is as good as my own but I don't like champ the food and, like you, I think Champ has no chance but I feel I must follow through with the bet.
 
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Let's face it, sisters can be tricky. But if you are going to run a hedge fund with me, you'll have to be comfortable using language in a certain way.

Sister: Did you have a bet on Champ?
You: I most certainly did?
Sister: Were you disappointed with his poor run?
You: Well, you know, I've been at this lark for a long time - one learns to take the ups with the downs
Sister: Did you put it all on him?
You: Well to be honest - I had a little be of luck there. I kept some money aside for a saver which came good.
Sister: Oh?
You: Yep, I had a bet on how many times, during ITV's coverage of the festival, the following would be mentioned - "it's all about the horse who are at the epicentre of everything in this noble sport". I went high on the spread and it came in......in buckets and spades!
 
Believe it or not, I took your advice and did a saver on Minella Indo
Champ lay a place now looks like the easiest money ever.
 
Ok I believe you - I guess that makes you CIO of our hedge fund!

Aftertime alert: There was a very interesting interview with HdeB after his triumph in the first (......sorry 'bout that, guv). When Alice said "and you still have A+Tard to come in the big one"...…….there was something in Henry's reply that "we shouldn't forget Minella" that said to me that each way 5 places with Sky would not be my silliest bet of the week! [And so, I went in with both feet...….the main thing that I was worried about between placing this bet and the off was whether Mike Fitz would tip him!]

Overall, a profitable and entertaining week and a welcome distraction from the bizarre times that we are in.
 
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