The screw is being turned on the DUP

[nest egg]

... The backstop is a useful tool to talk about (if it wasn't that there would be something else) in order to (a) ensure nothing gets signed with the EU and (b) force Parliament to block a no deal outcome through a vote of confidence or hijacking another piece of legislation. Then call an election claiming to be the true party looking to deliver Brexit - only prevented by the nasty EU and HoC - taking the wind out of the Brexit Party to a large extent...

That's exactly my thinking. Boris is giving every indication he's not interested in any negotiations with the EU, he's playing to the home crowd, the electioneering has commenced. The self preservation of the Tory party is at the heart of all this grandstanding. They need to kill off the Brexit party (as they successfully did with UKIP). Once done, they'll be in a position to get a deal over the line.

Interesting times ahead!

 

[john luc]

I would have never thought I would see the day that a serious consideration of the breakup of the UK could happen, not anymore. This brexit vote is driven be English Nationalism and the level of,"let them eat cake", attitude that is prevalent in England is quite strong. If Scotland does break away this will put pressure on Wales and Northern Ireland. The problem with Northern Ireland is that its economy is too dependant on the UK taxpayer with 1.8 million people getting over £10 billion as a subsidy means that if a discussion of a united Ireland was to start then many people in the Republic will not be happy about paying extra taxes to keep the north in the comfort they are kept at the moment.

 

[Purple]

I would have never thought I would see the day that a serious consideration of the breakup of the UK could happen, not anymore. This brexit vote is driven be English Nationalism and the level of,"let them eat cake", attitude that is prevalent in England is quite strong. If Scotland does break away this will put pressure on Wales and Northern Ireland. The problem with Northern Ireland is that its economy is too dependant on the UK taxpayer with 1.8 million people getting over £10 billion as a subsidy means that if a discussion of a united Ireland was to start then many people in the Republic will not be happy about paying extra taxes to keep the north in the comfort they are kept at the moment.

That divorce bill would make the EU one look like chicken feed.

 

[odyssey06]

I would have never thought I would see the day that a serious consideration of the breakup of the UK could happen, not anymore.

I would have thought the existence of the EU, whether UK was in it or not, makes Scottish independence far more likely. Without an EU, I can't see Scotland going it alone ala Norway or Iceland. Probably the UK should never have signed up for the EU rather than being only being half in, if that was their prime concern.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Agree with much of what is being said here. Betfair has it odds on that a GE will happen before Brexit. No Deal is still odds against as is Brexit by 31st Oct.
Where I disagree is that I think Brexit will make Scotland less likely to go for independence. The EU would have one very poison pill for an independent Scotland - the euro, and I see no way they would let Scotland join and be exempt from the euro. For a start, to make a promise of such an exception in the context of an independence referendum would be viewed (rightly) by Westminster as a very hostile act.

 

[WolfeTone]

A more than frosty reception from the crowd for BJ on meeting Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland to say the least.
Sturgeons views on no deal Brexit were pretty emphatic - Scotland should determine its own future.
We all know that Ireland's interests have always been a distant second to Britains interests in the United Kingdom, but Scotlands interests are a different prospect.
There is no United Kingdom without Scotland.
A no-deal Brexit, dragging Scotland out of EU against its wishes is playing with fire.

 

[john luc]

Did anyone notice how bad the optics were today with a very English PM going north to Scotland with a cheap bribe in his pocket in the guise of a few crumbs from the money table. A bit like the Cowboys giving the Indians glass beads for their land.

 

[odyssey06]

Did anyone notice how bad the optics were today with a very English PM going north to Scotland with a cheap bribe in his pocket in the guise of a few crumbs from the money table. A bit like the Cowboys giving the Indians glass beads for their land.

Or when we went over with shiploads of carpet bags for Brussels money?

 

[galway_blow_in]

A more than frosty reception from the crowd for BJ on meeting Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland to say the least.
Sturgeons views on no deal Brexit were pretty emphatic - Scotland should determine its own future.
We all know that Ireland's interests have always been a distant second to Britains interests in the United Kingdom, but Scotlands interests are a different prospect.
There is no United Kingdom without Scotland.
A no-deal Brexit, dragging Scotland out of EU against its wishes is playing with fire.

Might well explain why the UK government are being so insistent on removing the backstop.

Would energise the Scots

 

[cremeegg]

Did anyone notice how bad the optics were today with a very English PM going north to Scotland with a cheap bribe in his pocket in the guise of a few crumbs from the money table. A bit like the Cowboys giving the Indians glass beads for their land.

Johnson obviously thinks that there are plenty of people in Scotland who will be grateful for his attention. I am not sure he is wrong.

 

[Firefly]

Brexit will be 'catastrophic', first minister tells Boris Johnson ahead of his visit to Wales – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen, including Boris Johnson’s first visit to Wales as prime minister

www.theguardian.com

He said that in all scenarios, the government will be steadfast in its commitment to the Belfast agreement and will never put physical checks or physical infrastructure on the border.

I'm wondering if he is implying that any border will have to be build by the EU? It would be a handy "Well we didn't build the border" cop-out and force the EU into building it, which would in turn cause all sorts of issues with some people here....

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Brexit will be 'catastrophic', first minister tells Boris Johnson ahead of his visit to Wales – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen, including Boris Johnson’s first visit to Wales as prime minister

www.theguardian.com

He said that in all scenarios, the government will be steadfast in its commitment to the Belfast agreement and will never put physical checks or physical infrastructure on the border.

I'm wondering if he is implying that any border will have to be build by the EU? It would be a handy "Well we didn't build the border" cop-out and force the EU into building it, which would in turn cause all sorts of issues with some people here....

Fly this has been the British position since the beginning. It was a vain attempt to turn Dublin against Brussels but it failed from the very start with our spokespersons asserting that everything that flows from Brexit, including EU actions, is solely the fault of the British - it was they who chose Brexit.

 

[Firefly]

SF setting out their stall, a.k.a United Ireland. Time to sell my house??????

[broken link removed]

The nationalist people of the north have turned their backs on Westminster and increasingly look to Dublin for leadership.

Brexit has forced increasing numbers of people, from all backgrounds, to look South.

Last Friday An Taoiseach told the MacGill Summer School that the Government would have to consider a forum on Irish unity in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

A growing number of people in the north, including many from a unionist background, are now considering their future in the context of Brexit.

Many are now open to discussing the prospect of a new Ireland, an agreed Ireland and united Ireland.

 

[WolfeTone]

I'm wondering if he is implying that any border will have to be build by the EU? It would be a handy "Well we didn't build the border" cop-out and force the EU into building it, which would in turn cause all sorts of issues with some people here....

If the UK crashes out with no deal, then they will be operating under WTO rules. If WTO rules dictate that there needs to be border checks, then it is not in the UKs remit to just abandon its trade obligations without penalty.
If it is not an obligation under WTO to have border checks, then there is no reason for EU to put up checks either.
Logic would deduce that if two economies are operating under different systems, WTO and SM, then some form of checks will be required on both sides.

But in all of that, it simply exposes the DUP position of not being "treated separately" as bogus. The DUP are, like everyone else, against anything that will suggest a return to border infrastructure - this is completely at odds with what Brexit is supposed to be about in the first instance. And is completely at odds with what the Home Secretary, Priti Patel is promising with border and immigration controls.

 

[Purple]

with our spokespersons asserting that everything that flows from Brexit, including EU actions, is solely the fault of the British - it was they who chose Brexit.

That's just stating the facts.

 

[so-crates]

As I said to more than one Brexit supporting colleague in the run up to their referendum in 2016, there's no point getting all worried about Dover if you leave your This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language exposed in Derry....
Their standard response was usually along the lines of "we don't think of you guys as different, ye aren't a problem"
My standard response was "It doesn't matter what you think, it matters what reality is, Ireland is a separate country".

 

[Purple]

there's no point getting all worried about Dover if you leave your This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language exposed in Derry....

Love it.

 

[PMU]

If the UK crashes out with no deal, then they will be operating under WTO rules. If WTO rules dictate that there needs to be border checks, then it is not in the UKs remit to just abandon its trade obligations without penalty.
If it is not an obligation under WTO to have border checks, then there is no reason for EU to put up checks either.

It's not so much WTO rules. There are a stack of EU regulations concerning official controls on the import of food and animal products into the EU, that inter alia ensure food provided to EU consumers is safe and wholesome and its production complies with animal welfare standards. As an EU member Ireland is required to ensure imports comply with the relevant EU legislation. So we will have to check them. And as Ireland has benefited significantly from the single market it's something we should do willingly and unequivocally.

If this is what some people regard as a 'hard' border they really should grow up. Australia for example has quarantine zones and biosecurity standards including the prohibition of movement of agricultural produce and machinery between its states. By no reasonable standards would anyone say that this somehow constitutes a 'hard' border between the Australian states.

Logic would deduce that if two economies are operating under different systems, WTO and SM, then some form of checks will be required on both sides.

Correct. Although it's not logic, it's legislation.

 

[WolfeTone]

If this is what constitutes a 'hard border' we really should grow up.

Checking goods to see if they comply with EU standards is not the problem.
The problem is that we have a century old issue called partition that in recent decades has become effectively dormant. The phrase "let sleeping dogs lie" comes to mind.
It is simply not conceivable that any Irish government would consciously assign Irish citizens to border and customs checkpoints at the NI border, knowing that at somepoint in the future such a post will be violently targeted.

 

[WolfeTone]

Australia for example has quarantine zones and biosecurity standards including the prohibition of movement of agricultural produce and machinery between its states. By no reasonable standards would anyone say that this somehow constitutes a 'hard' border between the Australian states.

Correct, and throughout the EU, rules and regulations for livestock in place. Including, annual herd testing for disease, animal destruction if disease detected, quarantine of farms, neighbouring farms if need.
The life of a animal, from birth to death is traceable throughout the EU.
When UK leaves the EU, it will no longer be obliged to comply with all EU regulations with regard livestock. Logic could deduce that they will simply continue with same regulations as EU in order to smooth any prospective free trade deal for agriculture produce. But then you would have to ask, why leave EU if they are simply going to comply with identical rules and regulations?
So if regulations change, or are not applicable to UK livestock, then this will be a major disruption for farmers on the border.