walk2dewater said:And as I've said inflation is NOT going away anytime soon. We'll need a much more aggressive stance by CBs, and despite the recent saber rattling, I dont believe they have the cajones. At the first sign of recession the CBs will reinflation the money supply (cut rates).
darex said:You are obviously talking about a stagflation scenario
walk2dewater said:Just before deflation you'll want to shift back to cash and bonds of political secure, well governed, resource-rich countries, and it wouldnt be a bad idea to own your home sans mortgage. I'm speaking generally, globally. I know this is bleak, but don't blame me!
walk2dewater said:Of the dozen of so scenarios I can think of gold comes out on top in every one.
room305 said:What about if ...
All the world's central bankers successfully negotiate the delicate tightrope of raising interest rates sufficiently to combat inflation but manage to avoid killing economic growth. At the same time, asset bubbles like housing don't collapse completely but experience the much vaunted "soft landing".
Inflation drops to an entirely spurious index level of below 2% and the rate rises stop. The bull market in stocks continues unabated, everyone hails the brilliance of the central bankers and any shaken confidence in fiat currency is restored ...
It could happen you know.
joe sod said:"hereby reducing the real debt that people will have to pay back.
joe sod said:Either they kill off inflation by raising interest rates substantially which would cause all the asset bubbles to collapse leading to widespread debt default. Or they let inflation rise but also raise interest rates modestly under the pretext of fighting inflation thereby preventing asset bubbles from bursting.
darex said:I would be interested if anyone has any references to back up the idea that true inflation is much higher than the headline rates of inflation.
joe sod said:Just a few quotes from an article in todays independent. Dont worry everythings OK again cos gold is weak, what simplistic drivel ... I think the equity based SSIAs will suffer alot more losses before the period is up.
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