"The death of the euro is more likely than its survival"

AT THE beginning of each year, this newspaper publishes a preview of the coming 12 months. In the 2011 preview, I put the probability of the euro breaking up at 15 per cent. One year later, in the 2012 preview, it seemed close to – but still below – 50 per cent.




Now, more than halfway through 2012, I find it impossible to avoid the conclusion that the probability of break-up has gone above the 50 per cent threshold. In other words, the single currency project is more likely to collapse than to survive in its current form. Financial, economic and political problems appear too great to be overcome by a group of 17 countries that have proved unable to end the crisis.

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celebtastic said:

Probably Greece first

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