The Collapse That Will Change A Generation ?

Is it really surprising that a man whose entire career is built around commodity investing is bullish on commodities? It's not an opinion, it's a sales pitch. There's no information there that the market is not already aware of.
 
I'm basically taking the opposite position, I bought the dip of the US. I think the most likely scenario is Trump caves, there's a reasonable deal and things go back to closer to normal than collapse of the US.

Aside from this, I think the debt & deficit is a real problem for the US gov - I've seen this coming for years, but that's more of a reason not to hold dollar denominated assets than US companies. There's probably no way out of that except inflation.
 
My humble opinion is that WW1 was effectively a clash of empires.
WWII was the continuation of that clash of empires with additional empires colliding into the mix.

I now think it is reasonable that the empires, US and its Allies, are clashing with the empire of old, Russia, the empire of China, and the emerging interests of BRICS and other African nations.

I say, skip the war, and go straight to negotiating a new international order?
 
Sister Sara said:
I now think it is reasonable that the empires, US and its Allies, are clashing with the empire of old, Russia, the empire of China, and the emerging interests of BRICS and other African nations.
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The US isn't an empire its an economic and military power (despite Trump's fantasies ) , China isn't an empire either its a huge economic power but it hasn't done any imperial stuff in many centuries, in fact it was the victim of imperialism itself from both Russia and Japan, Russia isn't an empire either (despite Putin's fantasies) in fact the Russian empire collapsed in WW1 like the Ottamons and Austro hungarian ones. Russia merely replaced imperialism with communism and then that collapsed itself in 1989. As for the rest of the "Brics" they have yet to show a coherency and cooperation with each other they all have a fierce distrust of each other
 
@joe sod Thanks Joe.

I suppose I'm coming from the school of general relativity.

I agree with most of what you say, it's all fantasy.

Or more profoundly, a bizarre incapability of human beings to understand none of us are fighting with each other.

Its just bad leadership.

And in fairness to leaders, bad communications from the ground up.
 
joe sod said:
China isn't an empire either its a huge economic power but it hasn't done any imperial stuff in many centuries,
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I am not sure China's neighbours would agree about them not doing any "imperial stuff". Land and maritime borders are continually being challenged - aggressively. The Tibetans and the Uyghers might also (silently) dissent from this opinion. Both of their large territories are being increasingly settled (colonized?) by Han Chinese and dissent suppressed.

joe sod said:
The US isn't an empire its an economic and military power (despite Trump's fantasies )
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The US doesn't like to use the term empire - but it has all the features. The territories of the West were conquered by ruthlessly banishing, suppressing and/or slaughtering the native peoples. It launched and fought a war with Mexico in the 1840s and seized approx 1/3 of their territory. Similarly with the war with Spain in the 1890s after which most of the Spanish overseas territories were seized (not liberated) - The Philippines, Guam, Puerto Rico and more. Cuba became "a Protectorate" - for a time. Other territories that have been "incorporated" include American Samoa, The US Virgin Isles and The Marianas. The US also maintains about 800 overseas military bases. And not to ignore the coups in South America and elsewhere that have been engineered by US agencies to install "friendly" governments.

joe sod said:
Russia isn't an empire either (despite Putin's fantasies)
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Russia is doing "imperial stuff" in Ukraine and making threatening noises towards the Baltic States. Putin has been fairly "imperialy" too towards Chechnia and Georgia (Abkhazia and South Ossetia) and Russia still keeps troops stationed in Moldova (Transnistria). Belarus maintains at least nominal independence by staying deferential and obedient. Current Russia does not seem that much different from pre-WW1 imperial Russia - smaller, yes, but keenly looking to reverse that.
 
Yes Russia is trying to go back down the imperial route again under putin after it's communism experience failed. However it looks like it is no longer powerful enough to achieve it, it needs a compliant west and a stand offish China for any type of success. So far they haven't achieved much because even half hearted western help for Ukraine has been enough to thwart those goals.
In other words Russia is no state to pursue a confrontation with the west, it's alot less powerful now than it was in 2022
 
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