I think it's voodoo.
The CSO, government etc all use statistics to try and predict the future based on what has happened in the past and present.
I don't discount what either of you say. However, for kicks I've decided to spend a little time on it which may serve to validate what you say or otherwise.
Technical analysis to the best of my knowledge is statistics.
All the graphs, charts etc are statistics. There is maths behind all the squiggly lines.
The CSO, government etc all use statistics to try and predict the future based on what has happened in the past and present.
Sometimes it works wonderfully and sometimes it doesn't.
I'm not in any way 'passionate' about it - just keeping an open mind. Will report back if I even get that far with it.Good for you. Would be interested to see your feedback here in future. Don't want to be preachy, but if I were you I would aim for a dispassionate analysis of your results. It's very easy to be convinced something is working just because you want it to.
I understand the logic of that. However, surely if an approach is taken (inclusive of tech analysis) over a more extended period of trading, then the outcome of that gives us the result as to whether it's it's effective or not?The problem is that any success you might have will be due to luck alone, but you will attribute it to skill.
Perhaps. Maybe they're all misguided (those that use it). I'd like to apply it myself - even if the outcome is that I come back and agree that it's rubbish. My curiosity will have been satisfied at that point at the very least.Technical analysis is like a moth to a flame.
However, surely if an approach is taken (inclusive of tech analysis) over a more extended period of trading, then the outcome of that gives us the result as to whether it's it's effective or not?
Really? Surely if it's down to luck alone, a winning streak could hardly last that long!? Had I known that luck could carry me that far, I might have paid a bit more attention the couple of occasions I visited Vegas (rather than being completely disinterested).Hi tecate
I don't know the maths but you would have to be doing it consistently for many years to know that your out-performance is due to skill and not chance.
Brendan
Technical analysis is like a moth to a flame.
The reason they fly maniacally around bulbs is that in the pre-electric world in which they evolved, they used the moon to navigate by night. By keeping the moon at a constant angle to the direction of their flight, they could ensure they travelled in a straight line. Unfortunately, they now confuse electric lights with the moon and try to navigate by them. Because the bulb is not a quarter of a million miles away, its position relative to the moth is not constant. The result is that they moth just goes round and round in circles.
Really? Surely if it's down to luck alone, a winning streak could hardly last that long!? Had I known that luck could carry me that far, I might have paid a bit more attention the couple of occasions I visited Vegas (rather than being completely disinterested).
With the likelihood of their being a correction (fair to say within the next 18-24months?), is that where shorting comes in to play?With investing, there are lots of different factors that can influence the price of a stock, lots of which are unrelated to that particular company. In the last number of years, it's been difficult to pick losers, a rising tide lifts all boats and all that.
But remember "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked"
With the likelihood of their being a correction (fair to say within the next 18-24months?), is that where shorting comes in to play?
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