Key Post Some wealthy people are worrying unnecessarily about their finances.

 
Financial literacy is so low in Ireland, (maybe everywhere) and this 100% shows up in retirement planning. So it's not just the pot people need to worry about, but the phasing as health declines and spending patterns change. And how to consider downsizing and impacts of fair deal loans etc. There is def a space for short courses or information packs to explain some of this, should come automatically on a certain birthday. Like the way we get referendum packs etc.
 
Not sure how accurate Standard life's calculator is as the headline figure of €15,158 seems to be just a 60% of the national median income
That's interesting, where did you find that statistic for national median salary? By my calculations from your figure that would be 25,000 euros? You often hear the average industrial wage quoted which is of the order of 44,000 euros. Obviously the national median salary is alot more meaningful statistic than available industrial wage as it is not distorted by a few very high income earners at the top . However it seems to be a difficult statistic to get hold of, I think your figure would be a bit low?
 
Exactly. And after 20 years, it is likely that there will have been some fund growth so you are not left with zero pot. Of course, you have to factor inflation into this.
 
That's interesting, where did you find that statistic for national median salary?
From the Standard Life website

How do we work out the basic cost of living amount?

We've based our calculations on the 2021 Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) from Ireland's Central Statistics Office. It identifies the 'risk of poverty' threshold as 60% of the national median income, or €15,158.
 
My grandfather, in his 80s, used to spend 6 weeks in January and early February in a hotel in Spain full board with evening entertainment laid on. Keep the heating on at home just at the level to stop the pipes bursting. No other costs at all. And a favourable gender ratio at that age.
 
It would be interesting to see some graphs of ARF performance vs withdrawal rates over a prolonged period of time.

e.g. how much does investment performance offset the distributions from the ARF

I'm sure there must be plenty of people who retired a decade ago whose ARFs are now worth more than when they retired?
 
Would be nice to see this accounting for inflation as well.
 
Excellent plan! That's where health comes into it, if you are able it's great idea.
 
Hi Gordon
Interested in your calculations as I'd be looking at something similar as required. There is such varying info out there - if you want to feel much better (but I am dubious about the genuine feasibility of this), the pension store website suggests that Eur2m pension pot would get you Eur7k per month (I haven't a hope of having Eur2m, probably not even Eur1m the way things are shaping up but it's interesting to see how different it is to the figure of Eur60k per annum from Eur2m - is that Eur60k gross, or net?).
The suggestion there is that Eur1.2m will get you Eur5k per month??
With such varying figures around, no wonder people feel fearful of what the future may bring financially (unless your PS of course!)
https://www.thepensionstore.ie/how-much-do-i-need-in-a-pension-to-retire-comfortably/
 

2 million pot; take 25% off for Tax free (somewhat) lump sum.
Leaves 1.5m
Using the 4% rule, that's 60k p.a.
 
2 million pot; take 25% off for Tax free (somewhat) lump sum.
Leaves 1.5m
Using the 4% rule, that's 60k p.a.
Where does the 4% rule come from? If I retire at 66 and take 4% of the original sum each year, that will last me until I am 91, assuming no capital growth whatsoever. It seems unreasonably cautious to me. If I am taking 4% of what is left in the pot each year, I will still have over 500k after 25 years.

What am I missing?
 
I don't think you're missing anything - it's just a common rule of thumb that's been used for decades.
 
 
I don't think you're missing anything - it's just a common rule of thumb that's been used for decades.
Sometimes there is some sense in Rules of Thumb, but what I think is easily overlooked is considering your overall pension provision including your state pension. The full state pension is €14,469 p.a. If you reverse the 4% (multiply that by 25) you get a notional fund of €361,728, ignoring the fact that it is worth more as it is effectively indexed by government policy to keep up with cost of living. That figure never gets smaller when you get paid your state pension. So one way of looking at this is that you should add that to the 1.5M to get 1.86M and withdraw 4% of that which is 74.5k p.a. And you will still be left with >500k and your state pension at age 91!
 
Well actually, you'll probably still have somewhere close to the 1.5m original number as you will have invested it in global equities.
 
So get rid of the car and health insurance and you have 4k for holidays a year. Also good for your blood pressure to walk rather than drive
 
I think it's a rule based on annuities, so it's really not a thing that applies

My understanding is that the 4% rule is based on a portfolio invested in stocks and bonds.

It was trying to solve for:

- What % of the starting portfolio balance,
- can an investor spend (increasing by inflation),
- for at least 30 years,
- with a very high probability of success (100% I think, or maybe slightly lower),
- from a stock/bond portfolio (I think it was 60/40),
- based on historic US data of returns from stocks and intermediate term bonds,
- given the worst period of returns.

4% was the result.