Shorting Bitcoin

Gordon Gekko

Registered User
Messages
5,886
I don’t like the idea of shorting futures or gambling with Paddy Power.

I’d much prefer Bitcoin put options if such a thing exist. Basically where I could buy the right to sell Bitcoin at close to its current price within a fixed timeframe. If I’m right, and Bitcoin has collapsed by then, happy days. If I’m wrong, I just don’t exercise my option and all I’m down is the cost of the option.

Does that exist?
 

fpalb

Registered User
Messages
190
All I'll say is that if you think bitcoin will go to $1 or even $10 as anything except a temporary flash crash on an exchange (before new deposits arrive from buyers) you probably have no idea what you're doing. That would put the market cap at $210 million. There are currently over 50 cryptocurrencies with a higher cap. For bitcoin to fall that low it will either have failed to exist or the entire crytpocurrency ecosystem and market will have basically disappeared.
 

Duke of Marmalade

Registered User
Messages
3,476
I don’t like the idea of shorting futures or gambling with Paddy Power.

I’d much prefer Bitcoin put options if such a thing exist. Basically where I could buy the right to sell Bitcoin at close to its current price within a fixed timeframe. If I’m right, and Bitcoin has collapsed by then, happy days. If I’m wrong, I just don’t exercise my option and all I’m down is the cost of the option.

Does that exist?
Yes see post #12
 

Duke of Marmalade

Registered User
Messages
3,476
All I'll say is that if you think bitcoin will go to $1 or even $10 as anything except a temporary flash crash on an exchange (before new deposits arrive from buyers) you probably have no idea what you're doing. That would put the market cap at $210 million. There are currently over 50 cryptocurrencies with a higher cap. For bitcoin to fall that low it will either have failed to exist or the entire crytpocurrency ecosystem and market will have basically disappeared.
I think that is where the Boss is at and I’m not far behind him. It is the collapse of the whole concept, not a question of finding the right pricing level. The huge attention BTC is currently getting as a result of its unbelievable price explosion will probably hasten the day when reality dawns.
 

fpalb

Registered User
Messages
190
Sure if it's your opinion that everyone will stop finding crypto useful and/or that it will fail to function for some reason, then go ahead and bet on it getting to $10 or even $1 then. On the other hand if you're thinking it'll get there just from fallout of the oncoming crash and nothing else, I don't think it will even get close.
 

Brendan Burgess

Founder
Messages
45,753
Hi Gordon

That is what I want as well.

I place a bet that the price will fall to zero in the long-term, maybe 12 months. If I bet €1,000 @10/1 and it doesn't fall to zero, I lose €1,000.

I have asked Betfair to open a book on the price at 31 Dec 2018.

Brendan
 

Duke of Marmalade

Registered User
Messages
3,476
Aren’t the “winnings” paid in Bitcoin or similar nonsense?
Well yes but you can cash in your BTC at spot. It is only if the value of BTC is absolutely zero i.e. nobody at all is trading that this would be a problem, I think on a 3 month view you can dismiss that.
 

noproblem

Registered User
Messages
2,781
The problem is Brendan, this forum is now giving Betfair whatever info they may want to gather. It may favour them or then again it may favour you. It might be a better punt if you put a grand on Mayo for Sam '18. :eek:
 

noproblem

Registered User
Messages
2,781
Oh dear, we're banjaxed then so.
But then again, Bitcoin could have a few curses put on it very soon going on what i'm reading here;)
 
B

BreadKettle

Guest
Hi Gordon

That is what I want as well.

I place a bet that the price will fall to zero in the long-term, maybe 12 months. If I bet €1,000 @10/1 and it doesn't fall to zero, I lose €1,000.

I have asked Betfair to open a book on the price at 31 Dec 2018.

Brendan

This is comical. I'd happily take that bet and triple the odds for you. I'm sure there is a dApp on Ethereum that could accommodate us.

It's had such an enormous rise that it is bound to correct and probably hard, followed by a bear market and eventual recovery as would be the normal market cycle.

€0 is cuckoo land though, and only someone with truly zero understanding of the technology and it's potential would come out with it.
 
D

Dan Murray

Guest
Aren’t the “winnings” paid in Bitcoin or similar nonsense?

Those that go to watch the ponies live will be familiar with the cry of the bookies: Bets in Sterling paid in Sterling.

Some years ago, at my local track in South Dublin, shortly after a spectacular bank raid in Northern Ireland, one bookie shouted out a delightful variation on the standard catch-cry: Bets in Northern Irish banknotes, paid in Northern Irish banknotes!:cool::p
 
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