Schools, what level of risk do they pose?

[Clamball]

Yes, I heard the radio 1 interview yesterday at lunch. He was saying that he and NPHET are in agreement that it is the 1 million people movements every day going to school that they want to stop which is why they are going to close the schools.

Looking out my front window today, where I am working, there are much less people around. I live between 2 primary schools so the impact is very high on traffic. All I see are family groups walking to the park at the moment.

 

[imalwayshappy]

I wonder how long will it take for the schools to reopen? I am thinking the start of Feb. Although the case numbers are high now, I can see the numbers starting to come down after next week substantially.

 

[Leper]

I wonder how long will it take for the schools to reopen? I am thinking the start of Feb. Although the case numbers are high now, I can see the numbers starting to come down after next week substantially.

Towards the end of November 2020 the daily infection rate was 200+ and we moved from Level 5 to Level 3 on 2nd December (against the advice of Tony Holohan and NPHET). This was a recipe for the disaster that inevitably came. Yesterday the infection rate was 6000+ and a couple of days ago it was 8000+. The Personal Responsibility against Covid that was conferred on the people of Ireland was dreadfully abused. Our hospitals are under severe pressure, businesses will remain closed longer and the reopening date for all schools is anybody's guess.

Mrs Lep and I self isolated for weeks and we don't venture out unless for essential reasons. But, all around me there are cars pulling up outside most houses and the occupants spend the day on their visits. Several people have run unofficial parties over the Christmas/New Year period. Even on New Years Eve there was a relatively large fancy dress party nearby which went on until the next day. A gathering of over 100 people in a shed was broken up by Gardaí just before Christmas. The hairdressing salon in an extension to a house nearby is thriving also. I reckon the hairdresser within is on her way to her first million since Covid restrictions kicked in.

Personal Responsibility, my hat! We'll be lucky if the schools are reopened by 1st April, I regret to say.

 

[imalwayshappy]

Towards the end of November 2020 the daily infection rate was 200+ and we moved from Level 5 to Level 3 on 2nd December (against the advice of Tony Holohan and NPHET). This was a recipe for the disaster that inevitably came. Yesterday the infection rate was 6000+ and a couple of days ago it was 8000+. The Personal Responsibility against Covid that was conferred on the people of Ireland was dreadfully abused. Our hospitals are under severe pressure, businesses will remain closed longer and the reopening date for all schools is anybody's guess.

Mrs Lep and I self isolated for weeks and we don't venture out unless for essential reasons. But, all around me there are cars pulling up outside most houses and the occupants spend the day on their visits. Several people have run unofficial parties over the Christmas/New Year period. Even on New Years Eve there was a relatively large fancy dress party nearby which went on until the next day. A gathering of over 100 people in a shed was broken up by Gardaí just before Christmas. The hairdressing salon in an extension to a house nearby is thriving also. I reckon the hairdresser within is on her way to her first million since Covid restrictions kicked in.

Personal Responsibility, my hat! We'll be lucky if the schools are reopened by 1st April, I regret to say.

All fair points. I was actually surprised that they didn't invoke the 2km restriction. I know its hard on people to restrict movements to that level but it's a bitter pill that must be taken as demonstrated by the numbers.... I am still hopeful of 1st Feb schools reopening, granted, this might well be wishful thinking...

 

[Purple]

Your suggestion hasn't been thought out very well, IMHO.

Do you honestly think that the schools will reopen on 1st February?

Members of ISAG have calculated that if the current lockdown is as "successful" as the autumn lockdown, it will be May before the daily reported case numbers drop below 100.

The ISAG are a Zero Covid advocacy group. I'll take my data from the HSE and the Government agencies.
100 cases a day is well below the level at which schools could reopen.

I'd be surprised if the schools reopen before Easter. What happens in such a scenario? No summer holidays whatsoever, LC exams in September and overlapping school years?

Just work through until the job is done. If that means no holidays then there'll be no holidays. So what?

Plus, there is no guarantee that things will be better. The case numbers are worse now that ever.

That's due t the infections which took place over Christmas, which I'm sure you know. This lockdown will reduce those numbers significantly, which I'm sure you know.

Current understanding of the Pfizer and Moderna mRMA vaccines suggest that those vaccinated may still transmit the virus.

Oh for gods sake. There is a CHANCE that people who are vaccinated can get and transmit the virus. That chance is very low.

UVDL has said that after doubling the purchase of Pfizer vaccines we should all be vaccinated by Q4.

We don't all have to be vaccinated to reach mass immunity levels.

 

[Purple]

If they miss three months (JFM) and these are to be replaced by the summer holiday months (JA).... three into two does not go. So there!

And Mid Terms and Easter and all the other holidays. Lots of time.

Ireland has recorded the highest Covid-19 infection rate in the world over the past seven days.

I know we've the highest rates in Europe or the USA but I didn't know it was the highest in the world. We've the lockdown now so that figure will drop quite quickly. Relax.

We need as few transmitters as possible.

Yes, but to get the R number well below 1 we need 50% of the adult population vaccinated. That's what this is about, not some vague "as few as possible" as that's not a defined figure and so is totally subjective.

 

[Clamball]

I think we are in uncharted territory as to when schools will re-open. I think everyone is concentrating on keepings levels as low as they can currently. But stopping people interacting is an uphill battle.

My company has us working from home unless absolutely essential to be there in person. I have a team working for me and I am arranging very closely that 1 person per day in the office to do the essential tasks. And this morning I hear from those who send their kids to the crèche that they all did so this am because they consider themselves essential. While our industry sector is essential we are not and our company would live without our services for a few months, albeit delaying stuff. We have made loads of profit in 2020 so we will be paid if we sit at home unable to work, but still my precious staff want to pop their kids in the crèche putting others at needless risk. We are neither front line or essential. It puts childcare workers and other parents at risk.

So with behaviour like that what chance do we have of getting the numbers down fast. I am sick of being home, not visiting family and friends. I even miss going to work. But until I get the vaccine I have to remain cautious, I don’t want to catch the virus and die.

if I was the government I would call off the leaving cert on Feb 1st unless there is an almighty improvement.

 

[Cricketer]

And Mid Terms and Easter and all the other holidays. Lots of time.

The teachers I know are all on duty today, interacting and working with their pupils (many of them with their partner at work too and children to mind). Do you want them to continue to do this until next Halloween or Christmas without a break or do you want schools to close fully, then reopen and pupils and teachers to work from then on?

 

[Purple]

The teachers I know are all on duty today, interacting and working with their pupils (many of them with their partner at work too and children to mind). Do you want them to continue to do this until next Halloween or Christmas without a break or do you want schools to close fully, then reopen and pupils and teachers to work from then on?

Given how hard it is for both teachers and students to work online I'd like to see primary schools closed fully but reopened ASAP as small children are very low risk of either catching or spreading the virus.
Secondary schools should continue to work online but they should also stay open longer during the summer to make up for the shortcomings of working online. Considering the billions we are spending it shouldn't be a big deal finding a few million extra to make sure every student has access to a laptop.

 

[Clamball]

While it seems to be the case that primary school children are at low risk of dying from the virus if they catch it the evidence is a lot less clear, currently, if they catch it less than other age groups. They seem to be a lot more asymptotic but they may catch it and pass it on without ever showing symptoms or testing positive.

But one thing they do have is contact with adults, parents, older siblings, wider family, teachers, SNA’s, other parents. And when school is in session there are an awful lot of child adult interactions.

So, in an enclosed space, with close contact with 30 other kids, teachers and SNA. Aerosol droplets will spread throughout the room over 6 hours. Even if adults wear masks, stay 2 M distance, open windows, perfectly the risk increases as the day progresses.

It is also fair to say that there is a risk of child to child transmission which increases as the hours pass.

So if a kid in that classroom is Covid positive the risk keeps multiplying up and up as the day progresses and as the days go on.

The risk is not 0. And we have heard from teachers and SNA how impossible it is to maintain the current systems, how kids do not stay in pods, do not stay 2M away. Aerosol transmission will happen and this makes the staff feel unsafe.