The trend in accounts over 90 days - PDH's
|Q4 2012|Q1 2013|Q2 2013|Q3 2013|Q4 2013|Q1 2014
Accounts >90 days|94,488|||||93,106
Total mortgage accounts|792,000|||||762,000
accounts >90 days|11.9%|12.3%|12.7%|12.9%|12.6%|12.2%
cases capitalised|9,754|||||22,624
split mortgages|52|||||8,388
% of loan accounts in arrears for more than 90 days
This is very odd.
One would expect the underlying natural trend to be downwards
- The CCMA has been amended so banks are free to call borrowers now
- The emargo on repossessions has been lifted
- Unemployment has fallen so people should be in a better position.
But one would also expect the
reported figures to be even further downwards
- 13,000 extra cases have had their arrears capitalised - so they should be out of these numbers
- 8,000 split mortgages have been issued , which should also result in lower arrears (There is crossover between splits and capitalisation)
I thought that the individual banks have reported that the figures are falling, but these stats don't seem to support that.
ptsb: The bank reported a drop in early and late stage arrears across all portfolios with overall levels 10% below the peak reached last year.
AIB: The pace of formation of new impaired loans continued to reduce, it added. The total arrears in its Irish residential mortgage portfolio was stable in the first quarter with both early arrears and arrears of over 90 days declining. (Ok that is a bit vague)
Bank of Ireland:
I can't understand why the figures are not falling much more rapidly
On the other hand,
Fitch says that they are still rising.