This is what I took from Prof Kilborn's excellent presentation. Here are the slides, although they don't mean a lot in the
absence of the narrative.
Joan Burton was there for the presentation and left immediately afterwards. It is a pity that the Minister for Justice didn't attend the conference. In fact, I didn't see any of the Dept of Justice officials there, but they may have been.
1) There is no change in the status quo as the banks have a veto.
I have said this myself in relation to the PIA. If the banks want to do a deal, they can do it now anyway.
Prof Kilborn says that the evidence suggests that the banks will simply not face up their losses, unless they are forced to do so.
2) A debt settlement does not cause the banks to lose money, it is the insolvency of the borrower which does it.
Again, I have made this point before. There are 10,000 unsustainable mortgages out there. The money is gone. The banks are not getting it back. Recognising this is not the cause of the losses.
3) The optimal rate of insolvency is not zero
Life is risky "illness, divorce, children" . If no one goes insolvent, it will mean that the banks are too careful. That people are taking no risks - either in business or life.
I have argued that the rate of repossession in Ireland is way too low. I asked Prof Kilborn what he thought the optimal rate of repossession should be. He gave a vague answer in public.
4) The best system seemed to be in France where the Banque de France used persusasion to get the banks to do deals.