galway_blow_in
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That’s great but I didn’t argue otherwise
That’s great but I didn’t argue otherwiseI think that what @Brendan Burgess's meant with his slightly facetious comment was that nobody can time/predict the markets or successfully pick "winning" stocks in order to significantly outperform the market. As the cliché goes, all things being equal (e.g. appropriate diversified investment in reputable assets), it's time in the market not timing the market that matters.
Yes , Gilts are such outlandish niche securities, the UK akin to Argentina, I bought the ten year Gilts when Liz Truss was PM and yield was 4.30 %, the pound is up several percent against the euro since last October and im not only in individual stocks , I’ve invested in two investment trusts which track the S+P and the main big tech mega caps , I’m marginally ahead of the overall market right now“I’ve a quarter of my portfolio in Gilts”
Incredible stuff, unless the poster lives in the UK.
This thread had shades of “I had a rash on my leg, I googled it, figured out that I had Tanzanian Death Fever, and amputated my leg. How can I help you by sharing my wisdom and experience? Which is just as valid as Dr Sam McConkey’s infectious disease credentials because we’re all entitled to our opinions and they’re all equally valid!”
So what?The Op says. ‘I heard a contributor on CNBC say on Friday’
Your original post definitely gives the impression that you're trying to time the market.That’s great but I didn’t argue otherwise
As does the idea of moving into, say, gilts or bonds until the market bottoms out and it's time to buy. Complete mug's game that will almost certainly incur losses - opportunity if not actual.When you see how high bond yields have gone, the market is still very strong,however I heard a contributor on CNBC say on Friday that if you look at the Russell 3000 ( which covers almost all tradable equities large and small cap in the USA ) , most companies are apparently below the price traded last October when the market is generally perceived to have put in a bottom?
I’m not bearish or bullish per say and I’ve a quarter of my portfolio now in ten year Gilts but when you observe how weak much of the market has been this past perceived strong year , a breakdown in the leaders would likely quickly lead to another bear market
I realise it’s often a relatively small number of companies that overwhelmingly drive market gains and at the end of the day none of us know future directions but it’s fun to chin wag about general activity?
You frequently suggest buying around twenty individual stocks as opposed to “ buying the market “Hi Gordon
I agree with you that an investor's opinion based on their short term experience is not as valid as the opinions based on years of research which show that one cannot outperform the market and trying to do so is a mug's game.
But it's a very common form of thinking. look at all the analysis from stockbrokers and journalists. Look at all the actively managed funds. It's wrong, but it's very common.
It's too big a leap to associate this with Brexit or Trump.
Brendan
No , I didn’t say I was attempting to time anything , that’s just you’re own interpretationYour original post definitely gives the impression that you're trying to time the market.
As does the idea of moving into, say, gilts or bonds until the market bottoms out and it's time to buy. Complete mug's game that will almost certainly incur losses - opportunity if not actual.
Hi Brendan,
It’s the particular form of thinking that I’m referring to. The ‘public has had enough of experts’ view. ‘Having a go’ at managing one’s own portfolio is analagous to self-diagnosing diseases via Google. It’s madness. My view or Joe Sod’s view is not as valid or valuable as, say, the Chief Investment Officer at Goldman Sachs.
All the best,
Gordon
Brendan I remember you posted this in another thread beginning of 2021 where I think you sold out 25% of your shares because you considered that the market was overvalued end of 2020, it was after the big recovery in second half of 2020 although I was very surprised by your admission then. I presume you now realize that this was a mistake, did you reinvest this back into the stock market afterwards?Yes.
It's a strange experience.
Because I am still 75% in equities, I want to see the stock market go up. But there is a tinge of regret that I sold out.
But overall, I don't really worry too much about whether the market is overvalued because I have moved some of it to cash.
Brendan
.......and then there was the shorting of a crypto currency.......to $3000. Brendan, I would call that trying to time the market?
Also, the fill your boots comment on the bank shares....just before they became practically worthless.
You have often stated that you are a holder of Ryanair shares....
The site’s called Askaboutmoney. Are posters who understand markets supposed to say nothing when people come along and talk about doing the financial equivalent of taking out a baseball bat and beating oneself to a pulp?It’s unfortunate that some feel the need to light on other contributors and heap scorn on what are very mundane opinions and choices, no one here is describing having stuck everything in a Brazilian Brewery or a South African diamond company
The reference I made to “ The guy on CNBC “ ( it wasn’t Jim Crammer so I don’t know anyone else’s name) was about how the market since the alleged recent low has been driven by an unusually small number of companies, I realise most gains tend to come from a select group but the bulk of the market is quite weak , I’ve no intention of selling, nor do I have a clue if we double within a few years from here or halve . I’m merely making conversation, hardly a capita offence
The site’s called Askaboutmoney. Are posters who understand markets supposed to say nothing when people come along and talk about doing the financial equivalent of taking out a baseball bat and beating oneself to a pulp?
Don’t be so hysterically sensationalist, you don’t even believe the nonsense you’re spoutingThe site’s called Askaboutmoney. Are posters who understand markets supposed to say nothing when people come along and talk about doing the financial equivalent of taking out a baseball bat and beating oneself to a pulp?
Wow. A mind reader too?you don’t even believe
Except that I said "fill your boots with bank and other shares." The full transcript and the subsequent performance is here
Only a daft gimp accuses someone who is beating the market of “ beating themselves to a pulp with a bat “ , that or it’s someone engaging in sensationalism designed to gain attention from their bar buddies , either way they are spouting blather but sure that’s how it is round here , the tiny permanent clique sit around making snide comments at anyone not in their little circle jerk and any sort of turd comment apparently smells of roses by their fellow inner clique membersWow. A mind reader too?
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