Major fall in BTC price (16th Jan)

TheBigShort said:
But the scope for independent research and self analysis now is huge. It opens alot options.
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There is simply no evidence that researching equities and trying to pick winners confers any value whatsoever.

The stock market is efficient or, at least, more efficient than 99.99% of people.

If you want to invest in the stock market, buy a fund or buy a diverse portfolio of blue chip shares and hold them for the long-term.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
There is simply no evidence that researching equities and trying to pick winners confers any value whatsoever.
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Brendan Burgess said:
If you want to invest in the stock market, buy a fund or buy a diverse portfolio of blue chip shares and hold them for the long-term.
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I find that somewhat bizarre. I recall a sales rep trying to sell me Additional Voluntary Contributions to invest in my pension. The investments would be put into blue chips known to most in Ire & UK. He showed me the top ten - two of which were prominent Irish banks. Another was a well known British airline. All of which have performed poorly over the last decade. The rep assured me at the time that my funds were to be managed by mathematical experts!

I really dont get that sentiment of not researching? Had I done my research on Waterford Wedgewood, instead of listening to biased commentary from Independent News, it would have saved me a few €K.

However, my research of Irish food companies is gaining quite nicely lately. And now that I have a few bob extra spare, tech companies engaged in energy solutions is where my focus will be at (albeit, a long way to go before im comfortable dipping my toe in that pond).
 
TheBigShort said:
I find that somewhat bizarre.
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Most people do and indeed I did, when I came across it first.

In short, the price of the share today, reflects all that is known about it and the combined analysis of thousands of professionals world wide. You are unlikely to be able to spot a mis-priced share.

TheBigShort said:
The investments would be put into blue chips known to most in Ire & UK. He showed me the top ten - two of which were prominent Irish banks. Another was a well known British airline. All of which have performed poorly over the last decade.
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It is very likely that your fund was a well diversified fund whose performance reflected the performance of the stock market generally. So while you lost on a few shares, the fund overall should have done well. Of course, you probably got crucified by fees.

I have had big losses in a few shares, but they have been compensated for many times over by the other shares in my portfolio.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
short, the price of the share today, reflects all that is known about it and the combined analysis of thousands of professionals world wide. You are unlikely to be able to spot a mis-priced share.
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I agree. Dont get me wrong, I dont have the time or resources or knowledge to trade frequently or go bargain hunting.
Im a small investor, I look at companies, what they produce, their history, their balance sheet and their outlook.
After that, if my gut sentiment has a good feeling I take a punt.
 
I agree with what Brendan is saying our individual research is unnecessary, since the market price already adjusted for it and countless other things we are not aware of.
The stock market is a very very efficient market.
We might as well pick shares at random.
 
ant dee said:
I agree with what Brendan is saying our individual research is unnecessary, since the market price already adjusted for it and countless other things we are not aware of.
The stock market is a very very efficient market.
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I agree the market is efficient, but it is not wholly efficient. My research does not involve intricate forensic analysis, it broadly based on sentiment using derived from a number of factors listed above.
No rocket science about it, it just ensures I cant blame anyone else if it all goes pear-shaped.

ant dee said:
We might as well pick shares at random.
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You could do that, and I believe there are blind monkeys that have out-performed financial analysts in the stock picking stakes.
But im interested in finance and economics etc. Why would I hand over to somebody else what I enjoy doing myself?
 
Firefly said:
Looking at the 1yr graph below, it looks to me like the end of July / start of Aug seemed to represent a stable value for Bitcoin of around $3k.
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What?



It looks to me as if the stable price is zero, which it was for the first three years.

In any event, the fundamental value is zero, which it will reach eventually.

Brendan
 
One can make the SnP500 chart look as bad just as easily...
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Hi,

For what it's worth, I don't think the crypto currencies have been around long enough, for us to be paying too much attention to graphs (and that is not to say that I have not looked at graphs for price performance quite a few times myself, over the last few months).

There is absolutely no disputing the fact that there's been a massive drop in the price of almost all cryptos in recent months.

People that I speak with who have invested in cryptos (including some who are very active in the markets, albeit trading on their own accounts), are generally of the view that things are going to remain extremely volatile until after the Chinese new year, but they expect things to settle down from the end of February an investors to begin to push prices up again thereafter.

I think what's going on in Asia (be it people withdrawing cash to spend on New Year celebrations, or be it concerns regarding regulatory changes in South Korea etc.) is only part of the issue, as I also think there is pressure being placed on the cryptos by world regulatory authorities, certain banks refusing to process transactions across their credit cards, or in some instances process transfers to and from the crypto exchanges. For me, it could well be the summer before things settle down in the crypro currency markets and at that stage, prices may look extremely cheap compared to what we've been looking at for much of the last six months. Between now and then, there's probably potential decent profits to be made if you are prepared to take big risks and watch the screens 24/7, but lets not forget there's also the risk of massive losses.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
It looks to me as if the stable price is zero, which it was for the first three years.
In any event, the fundamental value is zero, which it will reach eventually.
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I think Bitcoin could have some value in the future. At the moment the demand seems to be reserved for illicit activity and speculating, but I don't think it's inconceivable to see more users for the currency and technology over time. A natural price point for me would be the price of gold or a multiple/division of.
 
Firefly said:
A natural price point for me would be the price of gold or a multiple/division of.
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Why?

There is absolutely no comparison between Bitcoin and Gold as has been shown in the other thread.

Why not a multiple of 20,000 times the $?

Or 1/100th of the $?

And why Bitcoin? Why not something else? Why Bebo when Facebook is much better?

Brendan
 

Well, as you know I am no expert!

However, my gut is telling me Bitcoin will stick around as I think crypto currencies will stick around and Bitcoin is the best known, most used and the incumbent. One of the main selling points of Bitcoin is that the supply is limited so I can't see how it could be pegged to any FIAT currency. If it was going to be pegged to something that is also limited in demand, Gold would be an obvious choice to me.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
And why Bitcoin? Why not something else? Why Bebo when Facebook is much better?
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Because Bitcoin has the longest running blockchain with the most accumulated proof of work, which gives it the most trust.
The immutability of the data in that blockchain becomes increasingly assured.

The data in the Ethereum blockchain on other hand, is changeable by direction from it's founder and leader Vitalik Butterin.
They have changed data to roll back transactions before, and are currently planning on doing it again.
How much trust can be placed in that?
 
I’m not sure who I should listen to...an angry mob of millenial zealots ranting about how it’s different this time...or Charlie Munger:

“Bitcoin represents total insanity; avoid it like the plague. You know it is one thing to think gold has some marvelous store of value because man has no way of inventing more gold or getting it very easily, so it has the advantage of rarity. Believe me, man is capable of somehow creating more Bitcoin; they tell you there are rules and they can't do it. Don't believe them! When there is enough incentive, bad things will happen.
I think it is perfectly asinine to even pause to think about cryptocurrencies; it’s bad people, crazy bubble, bad idea, luring people into the concept of easy wealth without much insight or work; that’s the last thing on earth you should think about!”

If digital currencies are analagous to the internet in terms of potential, then Bitcoin is this era’s WorldofFruit.com.
 
I agree that in future, some companies in the space will exert their influence to try and inflate bitcoin.
https://medium.com/@rusty_lightning/the-three-economic-eras-of-bitcoin-d43bf0cf058a
But I highly doubt that will be successful as the bitcoin community have already thwarted an attempt at changing consensus rules that were backed by the major companies in the space, and inflating the supply would be a major departure from original rules.

That's the benefit of running a Full Node.
You decide what rule changes you want to recognize.
 
In 500 years the supply of Gold in the market will be so astronomical, it will be uninteresting and unremarkable.
 
azerogo said:
Now under $6000 a lot of late buyers have to be hurting now.
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Not if the only bought this morning

More seriously, it depends on their source of funds and what their investment strategy was when they bought.

If funds are borrowed, then it's just madness !

However, if funds were invested as a small part of a person's overall investment strategy, then it may make perfect sense to have a little exposure to an extremely volatile, high risk but potentially high reward, investment. Is it really that different (from an investors risk perspective) to investing in a privately owned start up for example ?
 
MrEarl said:
Is it really that different (from an investors risk perspective) to investing in a privately owned start up for example ?
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Absolutely.

In a privately owned start up, there is a possibility that it might succeed.

There is no possibility whatsoever that Bitcoin will be worth anything at the end of the day. It is worthless. 100%.

You can only make money on it if you get in and out again before it collapses completely.

Brendan
 
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