Has the CCPC any clue about pensions?

Brendan Burgess

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To be fair, I don't think that they have any clue about anything.

But this is ridiculous.

Sharp decline in pension ownership in 40s-50s age group

Cost-of-living crisis putting future planning out of reach for many, research from consumer watchdog finds
www.irishtimes.com

the numbers aged between 45 and 54 with a financial plan for their future has fallen from 85 per cent to 76 per cent since last year.
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So about 12% of those with pension plans last year managed to no longer have them this year? What did they do? Cash them early?

When a survey comes up with such mad numbers, they need to ask - "Is this possible?".

Brendan
 
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While 90 per cent of people between 45 and 64 have a pension plan in place
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I was surprised with this one too.

And of that 90%, how many of them are just for a few thousand and will be of little/ no use in relation to providing an income in retirement?
 
The composition of the group has changed also. It is not the same set of people. Last year's 54 year olds have been replaced by last year's 44 year old's. So the figures suggest the incoming to the group have far less pension provision than those who have aged into the next cohort.
 
Thanks Red

What absolute nonsense.





They "surveyed" a total of 757 people.
136 were in the 45 -54 age group.

That means that this year 76% or 103 had pensions
If the total was the same last year, it means that 115 had pensions.

This is clearly a sample problem and does not reflect any underlying trend.

The only thing that they can say is
"Last year in our sample 115 people aged 45-54 had pensions. This year in our sample of 115 people aged 45-54, 103 had pensions."

You would think that someone who knows anything about pensions would say "If the overall level of pensions in the population had gone up by 2% why would there be a dramatic decline in one cohort?"

Brendan
 
More nonsense


Suddenly in the last year, an additional 12% points of people decided "Ah, I will fund my retirement from my savings".

It is interesting though that about 1/3rd of the population have a public service pension.

Brendan
 
Much better data would probably be achievable if the CSO quarterly labour survey asked about employee pension cover. It might not catch those with private pension arrangements completely separate from their employment but it would still probably be better than phoning a mere 757 people.
 
Steven Barrett said:
And of that 90%, how many of them are just for a few thousand and will be of little/ no use in relation to providing an income in retirement?
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That is a very good point.

The adequacy of the pension is more important.

I would prefer to see 70% of the population with an adequate pension than 90% with some coverage but most of which is very low.
 
ClubMan said:
Much better data would probably be achievable if the CSO quarterly labour survey asked about employee pension cover.
Click to expand...

Would it not be possible to count the number of pensions? Then work out how many are below retirement age.

Brendan
 
ClubMan said:
You mean by asking the pension providers and public service for pension membership numbers?
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Yes, but I am not sure which bodies one would ask.

There would be double counting as some would have public service pensions and separate AVCs.

But that could be adjusted for.

Brendan
 
There's no mention of sampling size error %'s either.
For example, their report says 18% of 757 respondents were in 45-54 age group. That's 136.
What is the total working population in the 45-54 age group? Thats not mentioned.
As a best guestimate instead, 18% of 2.5million = 450000
A sample size of 136 from a population of 450,000 would have a sample error of +/- 8% (at 95% confidence level) ie any differences less than 8% are statistically meaningless.

How to calculate margin of error (free calculator with examples)

Easily calculate your margin of error with our free online calculator. Find clear explanations and examples within our comprehensive guide.
www.surveymonkey.com

The 9% quoted is misleading - all we can say is there may be a downward trend but with a +/- 8% error, its misleading to interpret that error + 1% as a 'sharp decline'.
 
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Brendan Burgess said:
I wouldn't say completely pointless.

The information on why people don't have pensions could be useful.

Brendan
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I honestly cannot see how any useful conclusions can be drawn from a sample size of 757 when the target population is 2.5M. That's only marginally better than going down the pub and asking a few punters.
 
ClubMan said:
Much better data would probably be achievable if the CSO quarterly labour survey asked about employee pension cover.
Click to expand...
The CSO does this periodically and it is pretty useful. Sample size is in five figures.

The survey results referenced above by the CPCC are garbage due to low sample size.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
So about 12% of those with pension plans last year managed to no longer have them this year? What did they do? Cash them early?

When a survey comes up with such mad numbers, they need to ask - "Is this possible?".
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And these people are getting paid to put out meaningless statistics.
Like in only fools and horses when del boy asks Rodney

"And you needed to use ink and paper to come to that conclusion, a Millwall fan could have worked that out"
 
It was actually a Front Page story in the Irish Times. I have no doubt that the CCPC will be congratulating themselves on making the front page of the Irish Times.

 
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