Estimates of Receipts and Expenditure for 2025 published

Here is my summary of the document.

We are spending €10 billion more than we are taking in in tax when you strip out the windfalls. Or a deficit of about €6 billion if you strip out the transfer to the Future Ireland Fund.

 
Stupid question time. What are these numbers? Predictions?

We heard last week that government will have an extra x money to spend. Is that based on 2024 Q2 income.

Do we spend 2024 income in 2025 or is it more a current flow of money in and out?

Obviously it’s not like my current account but I’m still not sure on what numbers the budget is set off.
 
These are the estimates for 2024 and 2025 based on the current tax rates and the income and expenditure year to date.
 


The White Paper estimates for 2025 are estimates of State revenues and expenditure, before any changes made in the Budget.
 
That’s. It’s not always clear that the money being discussed is predicated.

What 12 months are used for the budget? Most stuff doesn’t kick in until January but some happens between now and the end of the year.
 
It is the annual budget ie Jan 1st to Dec 31st

All the figures are estimates - what else could they be as the 2024 year isn't over yet and 2025 hasn't started
 
Given that labour is the constraint in just about every area of the economy, and so increased spending is almost totally inflationary, would it not make sense to spend any surplus reducing the National Debt and/or increasing our reserves?
 
Especially as we added between 20 and 30 billion I think to the national debt during covid with all the lockdowns, the apple money wouldn't even pay that all back. Our debt to gdp looks OK because gdp is so large but gdp is inflated by MNC global revenues not real irish output. If multinational activity was to reduce then our debt becomes a big problem again just in time for when the pension crises really hits
 
Purple said:
Given that labour is the constraint in just about every area of the economy, and so increased spending is almost totally inflationary, would it not make sense to spend any surplus reducing the National Debt and/or increasing our reserves?
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I'd be interested to know if there is a single TD that is calling for counter cyclical policies? I am not sure but it certainly doesn't seem like there is. Amazing to think the crash was only c.15 years ago, but here were are, again.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Here is my summary of the document.

We are spending €10 billion more than we are taking in in tax when you strip out the windfalls. Or a deficit of about €6 billion if you strip out the transfer to the Future Ireland Fund.
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Over 2024 and 2025 you seem to have identified €43.9bn in windfalls. How are you defining these 'windfalls'?
 
cremeegg said:
We need more hospitals etc. now. They probably won't be any cheaper in the future.
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We need more of our health budget directed towards keeping people healthy rather than spending vastly more to treat them after they become sick. If the generals who were in charge for the first few months of the Battle of the Somme ran a health service they’d run it the way ours is run. The need for more hospitals is a good metric for a badly run health service.
If we didn’t have endless amounts of money we’d have to do things better.
 
The general government balance excluding windfall taxes according to the White Paper is:

2024 = -4,566bn
2025 =-3,325bn
 
Brendan Burgess said:
I didn't define them. The producers of the data used those figures.

Brendan
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You are being generous, in saying that they defined them.

'the Department’s estimate of corporation tax receipts that may be ‘windfall’ in nature' is as close as the paper gets to a definition of 'windfall'

Basically we have no idea what it means. Though it seems to me that 'windfall' CT receipts have been thing for a number of years. The suggestion being that they are not recurring, while they seem not only to recur but increase. Even a stopped clock.
 
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Purple said:
If we didn’t have endless amounts of money we’d have to do things better.
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Agreed.

However we do have an infrastructure deficit.

Purple said:
Given that labour is the constraint in just about every area of the economy, and so increased spending is almost totally inflationary,
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This explains why that is so difficult to resolve, but

Purple said:
spend any surplus reducing the National Debt and/or increasing our reserves?
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just avoids the issue.

We should build; houses, roads, schools, power plants and power transmission, water pipes, care homes and maybe even hospitals
 
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