It's not certainty, it's an opinion based on what I consider to be the probability, given the available facts.
Effect of the vaccines
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Paul O Mahoney
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But bear in mind having people vaccinated is the proper way of defeating the virus.Thanks Paul
This is not what the notice that Brendan posted said.
It is also not the mindset that was adopted when formulating public policy regarding the vaccine rollout.
Here's what Professor Karina Butler had to say - the relevant bit starts just after 3 minutes.
Certain posters seem to disagree with the good professor's circumspection - maybe they know more than her?
Today with Claire Byrne (rte.ie)
We might be discussing the fact that vaccinated people don't pass it on, these things are unknown for so many varied reasons that science will have to try and find the answer.
Add in the variants its really a "fluid" situation.
I hear ya!
Where did I say that there was evidence that the Covid19 vaccines blocked transmission?
I said that vaccines generally reduce transmission and that those who are asymptomatic are less likely to transmit the disease.
The purpose of the vaccine, and other public health measures, is to reduce the R number and so the rate of infection within the general population. As the vaccine is rolled out other measures can be relaxed as and when the R number is reduced.
What Professor Butler said is that we do not yet know if the vaccines reduce transmittibility and therefore we cannot base our public health strategy on such an assumption.
She said that they hope that the vaccines do reduce transmission and pointed out that the early animal studies support such a possibility as the viral load in the nose is reduced among those who are vaccinated but were still exposed to the virus. In other words there is an expectation of such but that's not enough to build a plan around.
I'm not making those decisions so I base my opinion on probability and the probability is that these vaccines will have an effect on transmission similar to just about every other vaccine for a respiratory illness.
Paul O Mahoney
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This for me is the "holy grail" right now, if this can be achieved with both the vaccine and good practices by the general public it would be a great achievement.
Historically vaccines would prevent spreading but this is a new virus and we are using new technology along with proven methods to fight it.
And every single one of these vaccines are being used on an emergency level, getting full licences will be a far more difficult process and some of the unknowns will have to be known .
Paul O Mahoney
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Below is something I came across tried linking but didn't work.
It would appear that there are some initial studies going on in Israel as it has the largest amount of vaccines rolled out.
"Does the Vaccine Protect Against Infection?
In an ongoing study, “Maccabi health services” and KSM research center, studied the first 430,000 people who were vaccinated at their nation-wide vaccination centers.
They checked the group’s infection rates in the first few days since receiving the first dose, and then checked infection rates within the group 13 days after the first dose was given. The researchers found that on the 13th day, infection rates drop by 60% compared to those in the early days after the vaccine was given.
A second ongoing study is being conducted by “Klalit health services” and its research center. In this study, 400,000 participants were tested — half of which received the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine, while the other half didn’t get a vaccine at all.
The first 5–12 days had no effect in terms of protection. The researchers saw a similar rate of infection between the two groups. However, in this study, day 13 saw a slight change while day 14 brought a drop of 33% in infections for the vaccinated group compared to their unvaccinated counterparts.
What Does That Mean?
Most importantly, this is the first indication that the vaccine prevents infection and not only symptoms, even if only to a certain extent.
While the first few days after receiving the first dose seem to have no effect at all; The studies mark the 13–14 days as the tipping point in which the body creates a certain level of protection against the virus.
A 60% drop in infections compared to the early days after the first dose, and a 33% drop in infections compared to a group that wasn’t vaccinated at all is an optimistic prospect. And yet, it is important to note that some of the participants were infected even after the 13-day mark.
“These are initial indicators but they are certainly uplifting,” says Prof. Ran Balicer head of Klalit research. “and yet, the first dose doesn't give full protection in any case. People who received the first dose would still need to wear a mask and maintain social distancing.”
It would appear that there are some initial studies going on in Israel as it has the largest amount of vaccines rolled out.
"Does the Vaccine Protect Against Infection?
In an ongoing study, “Maccabi health services” and KSM research center, studied the first 430,000 people who were vaccinated at their nation-wide vaccination centers.
They checked the group’s infection rates in the first few days since receiving the first dose, and then checked infection rates within the group 13 days after the first dose was given. The researchers found that on the 13th day, infection rates drop by 60% compared to those in the early days after the vaccine was given.
A second ongoing study is being conducted by “Klalit health services” and its research center. In this study, 400,000 participants were tested — half of which received the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine, while the other half didn’t get a vaccine at all.
The first 5–12 days had no effect in terms of protection. The researchers saw a similar rate of infection between the two groups. However, in this study, day 13 saw a slight change while day 14 brought a drop of 33% in infections for the vaccinated group compared to their unvaccinated counterparts.
What Does That Mean?
Most importantly, this is the first indication that the vaccine prevents infection and not only symptoms, even if only to a certain extent.
While the first few days after receiving the first dose seem to have no effect at all; The studies mark the 13–14 days as the tipping point in which the body creates a certain level of protection against the virus.
A 60% drop in infections compared to the early days after the first dose, and a 33% drop in infections compared to a group that wasn’t vaccinated at all is an optimistic prospect. And yet, it is important to note that some of the participants were infected even after the 13-day mark.
“These are initial indicators but they are certainly uplifting,” says Prof. Ran Balicer head of Klalit research. “and yet, the first dose doesn't give full protection in any case. People who received the first dose would still need to wear a mask and maintain social distancing.”
Given the current high rates of infection we need to get the R number down significantly below 1 before we consider lighting any of the current restrictions. If it is down to 0.5 the infection rate will drop quickly but given the 14 day (minimum) lag between a lockdown and the resultant reduction in infection rates we have to wait another week or so to find out what impact the current level 5 restrictions have had.
Once the vaccine is rolled out we will have to wait another 14 days plus to see what impact that is having.
Once the vaccine is rolled out we will have to wait another 14 days plus to see what impact that is having.