Brendan,
Trade body membership doesn't beget better performance. For example Dundrum has been a member of both trade bodies.
Although CUDA sells itself on a "progessive" tag line, its members are no more professionally run and have the same performance profile as others.
The difference between credit unions, regardless of trade body membership, is down to competent governance and management, legal compliance and prudent investments.
I wouldn't read too much into the higher dividend paying credit unions at this time as there is a fair degree of creative accounting going on to manage out loan impairments. For example
one of the top ten (a CUDA member) managed to pay a dividend by having its new premises valued at book value in both 2009 and 2010 despite a decline in commercial property values of at least 10% over the intervening 12 months. It's property accounts for 62% of its net worth.
The key issue is shrinking balance sheets as savings decline and new lending collapses - this feeds through in tighter margins, hollowed out loan books and with a high operating cost model there is little room for improving margins through cost reductions. Holdings of bank bonds and other investments respresent a source of potential losses. Provisions were found to 40% too low by the central bank this year - you should read bad debt provisions on a credit union balance sheet as being largely specific given the methodology used to calculate provisions. Some have been told to stop lending and many have been directed to apply a maximum loan amount.
As far as regulatory reserves are concerned the 10% target is posing a significant challenge for many and those that are hitting it are barely getting over the line.