Brendan Burgess
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Tell the folk who bought a month ago. They're down 30%, and that's despite everybody talking about inflation, which is hitting multi year highs. Hey, that is -98% p.a.I've argued with Stolfi elsewhere online since 2013. He's been militantly anti-bitcoin since then, and 8 years later he's still wrong.
In what capacity? Seems reasonable to me seeing as it has advanced considerably since back then.I was heavily involved in cryptocurrencies back in 2014 and there was a strong argument at the time there was more to it than this.
It was being used on a limited basis for payments - then transaction fees/times rose which stymied development of that particular use case for a time. More recently, it's made a comeback when it comes to micropayments via Lightning Network - which is seeing growth month on month. It's also been adopted as a sovereign currency in El Salvador and is being used for remittances there and elsewhere. Meanwhile, bitcoin has been establishing itself as a store of value/digital gold/inflation hedge. It's also being used to secure Microsoft's recently developed decentralised digital identity project - along with securing a couple of other blockchains.You were seeing the Bitcoin logo showing up on shop windows all around Dublin and I was using it to send money to a few friends. That seems to have all but fizzled out now and the only time I am involved in conversations about it, they are focused on buying it to make a buck when the price rises.
You're so right!...imagine suggesting putting 70% into that casino? You'll find every opinion under the sun on the internet - albeit I've never seen anyone recommend a 10% crypto holding over the course of the last 5 years on AAM.It's now the norm on personal finance forums to see recommendations like - 10% emergency fund, 10% pension, 70% stock market and 10% into crypto
Same old same old. Picking peaks and troughs to meet your narrative.Tell the folk who bought a month ago. They're down 30%, and that's despite everybody talking about inflation, which is hitting multi year highs. Hey, that is -98% p.a.
My emphasisRobert McCauley in the FT said:At today’s higher bitcoin prices, the hole is growing faster. About 900 new bitcoin a day require most of $45m a day in electricity. Thus, the negative sum in the bitcoin game is in tens of billions of dollars and rising at over a billion dollars per month. If the price of bitcoin collapses to zero, the gains of those who sold would fall short of the losses of holders by this growing sum. To liken bitcoin to a Ponzi scheme or a pump-and-dump scheme, both basically redistributive, is to flatter the cryptocurrency system.
To conclude, an economic analysis of bitcoin must recognise its uniqueness in the history of manias. As an object of speculation, bitcoin is unprecedented in the degree to which there is no there there. This post-modern mania features big prices for entries on nobody’s spreadsheet. A zero-coupon perpetual has arrived not as a joke but as a trillion dollar asset. Unlike a Ponzi scheme, bitcoin cannot end in a run. In a crash, the holders of bitcoin will collectively have lost what they have paid the miners for their bitcoin. This sum may be not far from the sum originally invested with Madoff, after accounting for inflation. But bitcoin holders will have no one to pursue to recover this sum: it will simply have gone up in smoke, a social loss. The holders of bitcoin would then only wish it had been a Ponzi scheme.
If none trickles down that it will not be inflationary. Of course it does not suit a leftist narrative to suggest that there is any of this printing going to ordinary folk.Bitcoin magazine said:This process leaves almost none of that newly printed money liquidity to trickle down to those at the bottom that are relying on the dollar
It's now the norm on personal finance forums to see recommendations like - 10% emergency fund, 10% pension, 70% stock market and 10% into crypto
Looking forward to another thread that goes nowhere useful
Just as cryptocurrencies.
No attempt to address something that you agreed bitcoin couldn't be classified as? Just for clarity, I don't recall ever giving an example of wayward monetary policy and currency mismanagement relative to a 'civil war ravaged' country. They're simply countries where your Keynesian economists and central bankers have mismanaged the currency. I did refer to this article which describes the 'bank-run ponzi' that has led to the collapse of the Lebanese pound though. Lebanon hasn't seen civil war for over 30 years.No attempt to address his damning criticisms other than the usual whataboutery of civil war ravaged basket cases.
There is no major revelation here. You were well aware of the fact that miners provide a service and that they are rewarded for providing that service. I've bolded out the word as you have referred to it 22 times in discussing bitcoin mining here over the last few years. The rest is complete nonsense. We've been over this a 1000 times already - earlier this year, you clarified that bitcoin couldn't be a ponzi scheme - so where is there a point in giving oxygen to this bunkum from the lifer from the Bank of Central Banks?He makes a new point to me. It is about the enormous amounts going down the drain in electricity usage. This is not the usual somewhat hypocritical eco warrior point but a reflection that when this all ends at zero, unlike Madoff, it will not be a question of a zero sum game but a very expensive negative sum endeavour which has poured billions of dollars worth of energy down the tubes.
See above.The other point McCauley makes is that unlike a wholesome Ponzi scheme where the people defrauded have legal recourse (70% successful in the case of Madoff) when the dust settles on this crypto mania those who have lost up to a trillion dollars at these prices will have absolutely no recourse.
It's Christmas so here's a clue right back at you - the FT is an old world establishment rag that should be embarrassed at what it's churning out. Beyond bitcoin, there are crypto projects that are going to disintermediate the entire industry that it concerns itself with. Up until recently, it was clear that nobody there had a notion. Pieces like this one suggest that now people are beginning to feel a tad uncomfortable. /clue@tecate There is so much wrong with that link to Bitcoin magazine (a bit of a clue there) but I will start with only one.
You're the first person I've come across that denies the validity of the Cantillon Effect with regard to Quantitative Easing. As regards the 'leftist' comment, not sure why you've reached that conclusion as just as many folks from the right have been subject to this inequitable policy.If none trickles down that it will not be inflationary. Of course it does not suit a leftist narrative to suggest that there is any of this printing going to ordinary folk.
So a bunch of academics whose area of expertise doesn't extend beyond Keynesian economics - an economic model whose flaws bitcoin has been a direct response to - is whom you're depending on? Did I introduce you to Upton Sinclair?:That another highly respected academic damns bitcoin is, I suppose, not news though he does it even more convincingly than Prof Roubini or the various Nobels.
As Mo Salah says of vaccines he respects the learned doctors, he would no more expect them to be able to tell him when to pass the ball than he would question their learned and professional opinion. Similar to me on crypto, I respect the professional economists. Oh I am sure @tecate can wheel out a maverick just as I am sure there are some anti vaccers in the medical profession.
See above - you're contradicting yourself - given that you acknowledged earlier in the year that bitcoin doesn't qualify as a ponzi.The bit about being worse than Ponzi was a valid and new angle to me, though again it is probably well trodden terrain in cultist circles.
@tecate so your rejection of mainstream economic academia’s damnation of bitcoin revolves around them being indoctrinated in a false Keynesianism with a vested interest in maintaining their own salaries i.e. take a machine gun to the messengers.
By contrast you seem to believe that bitcoin evangelists who predict prices of over $500k are driven by an altruistic desire to free mankind from evil central bankers. I call that cultist.
If I said bitcoin was not Ponzi I was probably referring to it not initially being a deliberate fraud though it has in some ways morphed into that.
What the McAuley article highlights is not so much the similarities with Ponzi which are there for all to see but how it is strikingly worse than Ponzi.
Lebanon is a basket case.
Soon enough they won't be able to vote in that country, never mind vote for ChristmasIt's very clear what I stated. Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
Having had their life savings vaporised the damage is already done. Voting isn't going to bring those life savings back.Soon enough they won't be able to vote in that country, never mind vote for Christmas
I was very surprised they went to Grafton St for a voxpop and found three or four people who HAD bought cryptocurrency - all of them under 30 by the looks of things.I was reading this RTE article earlier, it says Half a million Irish people already own cryptocurrency.
https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2021/1221/1268059-bitcoin-bonanza-banker/
Very surprised it's that many.
Can you help me from your comprehensive library of my musings and point to where I made this comment? I am sure it stands up to context. It is not a Ponzi in the same way that a house burglary is not a shop robbery but it certainly shares many attributes....having tripped yourself up in long since acknowledging that bitcoin couldn't possibly be a ponzi.
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