I wouldn't dream of investing in shares over an investment horizon as short as 4 years as suggested.
Intend to move in 4-5 years also so not willing to lock savings away for long term
In the old days when investment managers took a huge lump out of the initial investment and probably charged an exit fee as well, one had to invest for around 10 years to recover the charges. Even if you bought shares directly, you were paying 1.5% commission on buying and selling and 1% stamp duty, so you needed time to recover the 4% transaction charges.
There is also the idea that the longer you invest, the more likely you are to get a positive return, so you need to invest for a long time.
These days the costs are much lower so this is no longer a reason why you should not invest for 4 years.
So what about the argument that you might lose money over 4 years? Over 4 years, there are a few possible outcomes ranging from a serious fall in the value of your investments to a serious rise in the value of your investments. However, the chances of a rise are higher than the chances of a fall. The net result is that the return from investing in the stock market should, on average, be higher than putting your money on deposit.
You have €425k to invest.
In 4 years, you will need €250k to spend on your property.
In that 4 years, you will save about another €150k.
So even if the stock market is 50% lower just when you need to spend the money, you will still have that money.
The more likely outcome is that the €575k you invest will have risen rather than fallen.
For that reason, you should invest in the stock market.
You absolutely should not buy State Savings Certs. You need maximum flexibility and you don't want to have to get a lower return by cashing out early. While the risk of State Savings Certs is low, it's not zero. The country has €200 billion of debt and €300 billion of unfunded pension liabilities. The day of reckoning will come, although probably not within the next 5 years.
But long term, a diversified portfolio of shares is probably safer than a deposit account or state savings certs. You should expect a higher return as well.
This debate is carried on here:
I wouldn't dream of investing in equities over a period of just 4 years
Brendan