I reckon they'll have a soft landing. The fundamentals are sound.
Hahahahahahaha, that made me laugh!!!
My opinion is that based on numbers China will have something of a soft landing, and agree with Marc Faber that if China's growth goes down below 5% it will be a technical recession and property is definitely in a bubble in China. But I'm also with Jim Rogers when it comes to China, i.e. that in the long run a soft, firm or hard landing in China will look like a blip.
I haven't been adding to my Asian investments (bar Japan) in the last 18 months, but I'm also not going to sell; I'm not clever enough to trade markets.
An interesting take in this week's Moneyweek from James Ferguson, looking into the future of China:
'...what had it achieved by the end of its surge in infrastructure investment? Had it acheived any brand recognition? Any corporate governance? Had it established any quality control? Were people actually buying its products because they were cheap but starting to appreciate the fact that they were high quality as well? The answer to all these things is 'no'. China has done none of this. I think history may well look back on China and say "what a waste".
Who know's how they will end up. Personally from an equity invetment point of view their neighbour Japan looks way better IMO.
I'd replace "Japan" with "Korea".
We buy Korean machine tools ahead of Japanese ones; just as good but 30% of the price.
They still make the world's best quality products. Testement to the world's best quality and technology that they remain a top manufacturer despite such crippling currency moves for their exporters.
Hi ringledman,
What do you mean by "crippling currency moves" and if exporting was so important to Japan why would they implement such moves? Asking out of interest as no real understanding of this side of things.
Thanks,
Firefly.
Japanese property is back to 70s levels. Japanese equities back to 80s level.
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