Central Bank Arrears Stats to end Sept 2012

[Brendan Burgess]

[broken link removed]


Summary of mortgage accounts arrears figures at 30 September 2012

No arrears|636,326|82%
In arrears up to 90 days|49,482|6%
90 to 180 days|18,745|3%
181-360|23,035|3%
361-720|24,825|3%
Over 2 years|19,541|3%
Total|761,954

The Central Bank [broken link removed] show mortgage accounts. Some homes have more than one account due to top-ups. The average number of accounts per home is 1.25.

Total amount of arrears built up over last 6 years: €1, 645, 845 ( 1.5% of total mortgage book)

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Limitations of the data

Arrears is an indicator but not a very useful measure of distress

If someone has 10 years to go on their mortgage, two thirds of their repayment is actually capital repayment. Even if they are paying all of the interest and some of their capital, their arrears will mount up quickly. But all it means is that they are not paying off their loan as quickly as planned.

This is discussed in more detail here: Understanding what "arrears" actually means

We don't know how many of those in arrears are actually meeting their monthly payments in full

Some arrears may have arisen two years ago, but the borrower has since been making their repayments in full. But they are classified as in arrears because they have been unable to clear the old arrears.

We don't know how many of these houses have positive equity in their home
I estimate that it is around 25%.

We don't know how many have severe negative equity.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Trends

|Sept 2009|Sept 2010|Sept 2011|Sept 2012|increase in last year
Accounts in arrears < 90 days||| not available|49,482|
91 - 180 days|8,504|12,423|16,599|18,745|13%
Over 180 days|17,767|28,049|46,371|67,401|45%
Total amount in arrears|c.€400m|€660m| c.€1.1 bn |€1,645,845|c €0.5 billion

How much has been repaid

Total balances on mortgages at 30 Sept 2011|€114 billion
New mortgages issued over last 12 months |€2 billion
Mortgages repaid| 5 billion
Total balances on mortgages at 30 Sept 2012| €111 billion

Around €5 billion of capital has been repaid while around €500 million of arrears has developed over the last 12 months.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Restructurings

Restructured successfully |43,742

These have been restructured and are not in the arrears figures above.

Restructured and in arrears|37,941

The remaining 37,941 restructured accounts were in arrears of varying lengths. These restructured accounts in arrears include accounts that were in arrears prior to restructuring where the arrears balance has not yet been eliminated, as well as accounts that are in arrears on the current restructuring arrangement. Being in arrears does not necessarily imply that the terms of the restructure arrangement are not being met, as an arrears balance may have been carried forward into the new arrangement. Restructured accounts that are not in arrears may have previously had an arrears balance which has since been eliminated, or they could be ‘pre-arrears’ cases.