ubiquitous
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Are some people just upset that they didn't jump on board the bandwagon at the time and make some easy money or do they really believe that those that invested in property were 'amateurs' pretty much fools for some reason.
I think the entire point of the thread is that the notion of "make some easy money" is now being revealed as a mirage.
Excellant work. So for the 20 year period 1971 - 1991 house prices marginally beat inflation (holds hand up). It's only in the 14 years afterwards where the truism that house prices always beat inflation can be seen. The figures only run to 2005 so the inflation beating credentials of a falling housing market since then are, as yet, unproven.
I think all we've managed to establish is that one particular house managed to beat the officially reported level inflation over a certain 24 year period. It's quite a bit removed from your original claim that house prices would beat inflation over any 5-10 period. I'm also wondering, like Jethro Tull, why we have to ignore any precedents seen in other markets? What makes the Irish market unique so that it can avoid a 20 year downturn?so you are satisfied that in Ireland at least ,from 1971 to 2005 that house prices beat inflation,as nobody can tell for sure what will happen in the future
To summarise:
1) Plummeting property prices;
2) Falling rents;
3) Rising interest rates
Indo Article Dowling said:"Buy-to-let is a very different investment today to five years ago. You can't get into the market now and expect a quick return in two years."
Rising mortgage interest rates have forced landlords to increase -- or even subsidise -- rents. Although the ECB rate has not changed over the past year, the credit crunch ........ has also forced lenders to increase the interest charged on mortgages.
Many investors ... are suffering because the value of their apartments has plummeted.
Investors have bought in areas where tenants are hard to find.
In the last few years, there was an explosion of amateur investors who got into buy-to-let for the wrong reasons.
People who bought because their neighbours had investment properties.
Others bought because of tax incentives, such as the Section 23 scheme, "People [who took advantage of Section 23] have been left with properties that are idle -- they're getting tax relief, but no rent.
Even when investors have bought in good locations, it can be hard to secure rent. "Not every tenant pays their rent and not every tenant pays on time."
I'm sure the Japanese would love to hear that little mantra of yours.
in fairness to Barryl, his statement was as elaborate as yours, why don't you outline your points to him if you want to debate.
Sure. Note from the graph that any period where the line turns south that inflation is beating property prices. There were plenty of 5 year periods from those figures where that was the case.so you are satisfied that in Ireland at least ,from 1971 to 2005 that house prices beat inflation,as nobody can tell for sure what will happen in the future
- unemployment is rising
- interest rates are rising on an almost weekly basis
- there are (depending on your source) between 200,000 & 300,000 empty properties
- buy to let investors are being squeezed by rising cost of interest payments and falling rents
- slowing economy
- all signs point to a recession
Point taken that Ireland and Japan are not directly comparable. I only brought it up to show the absurdity of barryl's "hasn't happened yet, can't happen" attitude. I must say there appears to be some very shaky beliefs out there that I am surprised to still see being passed off as advice.Afuera/ Jethro Tull,
One difference between Ireland and Japan rarely mentioned when people cite the Japanese example, is that the population in Ireland is growing strongly (even now with positive net migration though less strong than in past few years and a growing indigenous population). Japan's population in contrast has been falling for many years which is not very supportive of demand.
To summarise:
1) Plummeting property prices;
2) Falling rents;
3) Rising interest rates
Link:
http://www.independent.ie/business/...ver-before-writes-louise-mcbride-1401961.html
Sure. Note from the graph that any period where the line turns south that inflation is beating property prices. There were plenty of 5 year periods from those figures where that was the case.
property investing is for the long term,dont expect returns after 5 years
To summarise:
1) Plummeting property prices;
2) Falling rents;
3) Rising interest rates
Err, and the graph plainly shows shows that property doesn't beat inflation over any 5-10 year period.no,I said property beats inflation in any 5-10 year period.
rents are up 22% over the last three years according to a bank of Ireland report last week
no,I said property beats inflation in any 5-10 year period.
We're talking about the Irish/UK market here though so we can ignore everything that happened in those other countriesDepends on when and where you buy. If you bought a house in the US in 1890 it would have taken fifty years for it to return to its 1890 value in real terms.
Good article on inflation and long term house price growth.
http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/03/shiller_longter.html
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