Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

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WolfeTone

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How can a continuation of Quantitative easing be interpreted as a change of policy direction??????????

Can I give you a Ladybird analogy?

In June 2013 I announced to my family that we were going to Wexford for the Summer and we would be returning in September. We packed our stuff and off we went. When we got to Wexford we thought it was so nice that on the 18th September 2013 I announced that we were going to stay until December.
We changed policy, it meant we had to buy some additional supplies which cost us money. Had we known we were going to stay for an extended period we would have brought additional supplies with us that would have saved us a bit of money.
 

WolfeTone

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Can you explain how these 'changes of policy direction' have impacted the price of Bitcoin over the last 10 years?

My reasoning to you is illogical. You would not be able to handle it. All you need to know is that it has been profitable.
 

Dublinbay12

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My reasoning to you is illogical. You would not be able to handle it. All you need to know is that it has been profitable.

I was referring to your illogical reasoning in how you present your arguments with the constant contradictions with earlier stated beliefs. Post number #1121 is another example of such.

It is great that your 'model' allows you to profit from Bitcoin.
 

WolfeTone

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I note you chose to ignore my question around the latest development from the FRB, if you watch what they do so closely. Why can't you comment on an announcement of policy change from a few weeks ago?

Because you didn't ask a question, you made a statement

It is only in the last 2 weeks the FRB has made a major announcement around monetary policy, so I would have thought your 'model' would have given you a new price prediction.

I assume you are referring to Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility?
 

Dublinbay12

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Can I give you a Ladybird analogy?

In June 2013 I announced to my family that we were going to Wexford for the Summer and we would be returning in September. We packed our stuff and off we went. When we got to Wexford we thought it was so nice that on the 18th September 2013 I announced that we were going to stay until December.
We changed policy, it meant we had to buy some additional supplies which cost us money. Had we known we were going to stay for an extended period we would have brought additional supplies with us that would have saved us a bit of money.

Wolfetone, I like the analogy but its wrong, which brings into question your understanding of what the FRB have said and your model. I guess you started investing in Bitcoin around 2014 so probably weren't looking at what the FRB said before that point.

To my understanding and evidenced by comments by Bernanke, the FRB never committed to an end date, they did say that as the economy rebounded they would relax their aggressive use of monetary tools as a response to the financial crisis. So to use your analogy, the FRB never said they were returning from Wexford in September. What they actually said was "We are going to Wexford until September, and if we like it we will stay longer until we need to come back". I'll add some context, I worked in the US for an investment bank post 08 on regulatory projects, and it that line of work the policy of CBs was always clear.

Now, I am not commenting on whether the FRB and other CBs policy actions are right or wrong. What I am arguing is that your view of additional QE representing 'policy change' is incorrect.

What actually begs the question is you seem to indicate that if an entity does evolve in response to a developing world and economy that this is a negative? So I assume that you then do not agree with Bitcoin enhancements and developments that change it from the original whitepaper?
 

Dublinbay12

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I assume you are referring to Paycheck Protection Program Liquidity Facility?

err no.......I am referring to one of the most important pieces of information in the global financial system......the FRB talk about quarterly, people trade on it, it impacts millions of people directly, and trillions of dollars of investment products, it is an actual signal of monetary policy change.

That should be enough clues.
 

Firefly

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If you think the long term demand of bitcoin will increase at a rate higher than the supply increases then it is logical to also think that the long term average price will increase.
And that's a fundamental reason why I think Bitcoin is unsuited as a medium of exchange. The supply of Bitcoin is fixed. Scarcity will encourage hoarding which is a characteristic a currency should not have. Hoarding will lead to an implosion of economic activity - people will stop spending as they will think the purchasing power of their money will be higher tomorrow. I'm no economist but I fail to see a problem with QE if the rate of inflation is kept in check. Sure a dollar today buys a lot less than a dollar 50 years ago. But so what? People have plenty more dollars in their pockets today. And anyway.....hasn't population risen by billions since then...sure don't we need to print more money anyway....
 

Firefly

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Can I give you a Ladybird analogy?

In June 2013 I announced to my family that we were going to Wexford for the Summer and we would be returning in September. We packed our stuff and off we went. When we got to Wexford we thought it was so nice that on the 18th September 2013 I announced that we were going to stay until December.
We changed policy, it meant we had to buy some additional supplies which cost us money. Had we known we were going to stay for an extended period we would have brought additional supplies with us that would have saved us a bit of money.
You should have went to Cork, you'd never have left ;) :D
 

WolfeTone

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to your illogical reasoning

as opposed to your own illogical reasoning? Perhaps it is dawning on you that if you are considering offering help to others to make informed investment decisions in bitcoin that perhaps you should put up first with some sound logical reasoning to do so. Instead your strategy seems to have been to take a punt on any bit of crypto going and to see which way the wind blows.
Now that is all well and good if that is what you want to do, but stop the pretence that you are here to inform.

Its funny how when I make a price prediction in 2019 that is wrong you are quick to highlight it. But I made the $34,500 prediction in Nov 2020 when bitcoin was $17,000. Less than two months later it had reach the $34,500 (which if not mistaken was a new all-time high at the time). The underlying point was that I very bullish about bitcoin. Was the price prediction lucky? For sure it was but the underlying point was that I very bullish about bitcoin and I was correct.

I like the analogy but its wrong

There's a shocker! :rolleyes:

What they actually said was "We are going to Wexford until September, and if we like it we will stay longer until we need to come back".

So what did they do, did they pack enough supplies until they need to come back when they run out of supplies, or did they pack enough until September and make another decision later. Either way, one decision may end up costing more money that the other decision. What would you do?

I am referring to one of the most important pieces of information in the global financial system

Well, according to you, it's one of the 'most important pieces of information in the global financial system'. Personally, I only think it is important if the substance of it makes sense (to me!).
So if you are referring to the FOMC statement of 16 June 2016

FOMC Statement 2021

Then I can positively say to you that I think it is one of the greatest examples of worthless information polluting cyberspace. It is completely contrived by a bunch of egotistical wanna-be seers that think they can control the inflation rate. For sure, they can make decisions that will impact the inflation rate but they cannot control it.
How do I know this? Because they say it themselves in their statement.

"The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time."

Think about it, if they could control the inflation rate then why was inflation running persistently below the longer-run goal of 2%? If they can control the inflation rate then why was it not running persistently at the longer-run target of 2%?

Worse, they aim to achieve "inflation moderately above 2 % for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent"

What does that even mean? 3% for 24 months, or 4% for 12 months, or 6% for 6months? Do you know? Can you explain it?

These people are charlatans. If you want to fall at the alter of this CB spoofery go for it.
 
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letitroll

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I so hope you're right because I want to buy some more. :)
Oh yeah - what’s your fair value range for BTC…..the price under which your a happy accumulator? Genuinely interested.

I’m going to assume you didn’t jump in and buy more at $40k, $50k, $60k……you seem to think $19k is a good deal…..is $25k a good deal then?….you buying right now?

So what’s @tecate BTC valuation range?
 

tecate

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It's a discussion that's been had here extensively last year. There is no neat formula for btc valuation - in the same way as there isn't for gold, silver, etc. All I can tell you is that I've tended to buy when most people weren't interested and not buy when most people were.
 

letitroll

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It's a discussion that's been had here extensively last year. There is no neat formula for btc valuation - in the same way as there isn't for gold, silver, etc. All I can tell you is that I've tended to buy when most people weren't interested and not buy when most people were.
@tecate - your all sizzle and no steak…..you dance around for 58 pages of this thread……but get all frigid & mysterious when your asked for a a broad price range for beloved Bitcoin.

Im not asking for an exact price to the decimal place…….give me a range…..you’ve already given me one range let’s call it ~$19k seen as you seemed so happy about my next check in when BTC hits that….so let’s stop your nonsense, coyness and show us your cards, face up. Pin your colors to the mast or you know get off the stage. The real story is you’ve no idea and your afraid to write it down.
 

tecate

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@tecate - your all sizzle and no steak ..you dance around for 58 pages of this thread……but get all frigid & mysterious when your asked for a a broad price range for beloved Bitcoin.
I 'dance around 58 pages of this thread'? Are you off your meds? So someone presents with a contrarian view to your own and this is how you choose to respond?

Im not asking for an exact price to the decimal place…….give me a range…..you’ve already given me one range let’s call it ~$19k seen as you seemed so happy about my next check in when BTC hits that….so let’s stop your nonsense, coyness and show us your cards, face up. Pin your colors to the mast or you know get off the stage. The real story is you’ve no idea and your afraid to write it down.
Let me cut right to what the 'real story' is. I obliged you with an answer - which is my genuine belief. ...ergo there is no neat and tidy formula. The discussion has been had many times where people taking your position hold bitcoin to a higher standard than items like gold and silver.
Now, if you're going to try and force the issue, then let me short circuit matters. Inform the discussion what the fair value of gold is today. Your refusal to do so yet go on about bitcoin valuation means that you're not approaching this discussion with a modicum of objectivity.
 

letitroll

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Wow such a simple question gets such a reaction from you when we are literally talking about a very instrument who’s function is as a store of value…….I mean the most IMPORTANT maybe the ONLY thing that matters here is what is it worth in your opinion?!?!? You have to realize how absurd your being dancing around the question like an amateur politician.

You’d swear I’d asked what color are the eyes of god - blue or green?!? Your own estimated fair value should not be unknown to you, especially as you’ve spouted about it for the last god knows how many pages. Then go MIA when someone asks you to make a call on your view of its price.

On golds value I’ve no issue at all with your question. Why would I.

My valuation framework for gold is as a pretty but scarce metal that’s consumed in the production of jewelry and other ostentatious displays of wealth. I expect it will always have this function and so will always be in demand as the globe grows wealthier and more populous.

So based on the above I would happily buy gold all day long as a prudent investment at 5% below the current extraction/replacement cost…..measured by the the lowest cost per Oz scale global gold producer/miner…..currently that’s Polysus from Russia which has an AISC (all in sustaining cost ) of $640 / oz of gold produced.

I’m a happy buyer/investor in gold therefore at ~$610/oz. or below.

On BTC I’ll give you my valuation it’s $0.01……cause there’s enough dummies in the world to buy the dip all the way down to almost zero but then sit around thinking BTC will bounce back one day. Think of me then as a happy buyer/investor in Bitcoin at $0.01 and a seller at $0.02.

Now spit out YOUR estimation of BTC’s current price where your a happy buyer/investor @tecate ? The absurdness of you dancing around this question can’t be lost on you or others reading this thread as I’ve said the very instrument itself we’re talking about is a supposed store of wealth and medium of exchange so what’s the trigger point where your loading up the truck?
 
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WolfeTone

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I’m a happy buyer/investor in gold therefore at ~$610/oz. or below

There is some merit to your valuation but its pretty limited in terms of strategy. By the sounds of it you are trying to minimise risk (no bad thing) to point of perhaps never taking any risk (useless)
When was the last time gold was at $610? 10yrs ago? In the meantime you have completely missed some massive upside and I suspect you may be waiting a long, long time before you see $610 again, if ever.
 

letitroll

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Micro-aggressions removed - reposting below & edited above....still waiting on a answer to a simple question from @tecate ?

Wow such a simple question gets such a reaction from you when we are literally talking about a very instrument who’s function is as a store of value…….I mean the most IMPORTANT maybe the ONLY thing that matters here is what is it worth in your opinion?!?!? You have to realize how absurd your being dancing around the question like an amateur politician.

You’d swear I’d asked what color are the eyes of god - blue or green?!? Your own estimated fair value should not be unknown to you, especially as you’ve spouted about it for the last god knows how many pages. Then go MIA when someone asks you to make a call on your view of its price.

On golds value I’ve no issue at all with your question. Why would I.

My valuation framework for gold is as a pretty but scarce metal that’s consumed in the production of jewelry and other ostentatious displays of wealth. I expect it will always have this function and so will always be in demand as the globe grows wealthier and more populous.

So based on the above I would happily buy gold all day long as a prudent investment at 5% below the current extraction/replacement cost…..measured by the the lowest cost per Oz scale global gold producer/miner…..currently that’s Polysus from Russia which has an AISC (all in sustaining cost ) of $640 / oz of gold produced.

I’m a happy buyer/investor in gold therefore at ~$610/oz. or below.

On BTC I’ll give you my valuation it’s $0.01……cause there’s enough dummies in the world to buy the dip all the way down to almost zero but then sit around thinking BTC will bounce back one day. Think of me then as a happy buyer/investor in Bitcoin at $0.01 and a seller at $0.02.

Now spit out YOUR estimation of BTC’s current price where your a happy buyer/investor @tecate ? The absurdness of you dancing around this question can’t be lost on you or others reading this thread as I’ve said the very instrument itself we’re talking about is a supposed store of wealth and medium of exchange so what’s the trigger point where your loading up the truck?
 

tecate

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Wow such a simple question gets such a reaction from you when we are literally talking about a very instrument who’s function is as a store of value…….I mean the most IMPORTANT maybe the ONLY thing that matters here is what is it worth in your opinion?!?!? You have to realize how absurd your being dancing around the question like an amateur politician.
I'll tell you what's absurd - the embittered position you've taken on the subject such that you can't acknowledge the answer that I gave you.


You’d swear I’d asked what color are the eyes of god - blue or green?!? Your own estimated fair value should not be unknown to you, especially as you’ve spouted about it for the last god knows how many pages. Then go MIA when someone asks you to make a call on your view of its price.
You're owed diddly squat from me - that's first and foremost. Secondly, re. your disdain for my views on bitcoin - duly noted. I mean that brings a hell of a lot of merit to what you're going on with here, right? As regards your 'demand', I have no notion of making specific calls when this relatively new asset is coming of age within the first new asset class since the 17th century. There are a whole host of regulatory, macro-economic and other factors that could have a major impact on btc price in the shorter run. What I can tell you is that if I didn't have any open position in bitcoin today, I'd be a buyer today - simple as that. Other than that, I'm quite happy to dollar cost average my way into a broader position should price continue to consolidate from here.

On BTC I’ll give you my valuation it’s $0.01……cause there’s enough dummies in the world to buy the dip all the way down to almost zero but then sit around thinking BTC will bounce back one day. Think of me then as a happy buyer/investor in Bitcoin at $0.01 and a seller at $0.02.
Yeah, I mean I have the humility to acknowledge that bitcoin could indeed fail but what with all the horrid plebs in the world, that eventuality is looking increasingly unlikely - but never say never, right? We live in ( hope, right)?o_O

Please don’t make monkey out of yourself by dodging the question again. It’s like, embarrassing at this point.
Well I'd really hate to 'make monkey' out of myself - that would be horrendous. The embarrassment I'd feel among the 'bitcoin must DiE community' - I mean, that would be tough right?
 
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