Big names, who is in trouble?

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Peanuts20

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Always a few shocks in any election but could we see more then most this time with some of the boundry changes. A couple to watch out for
  • Holly Cairns looks to be in trouble in Cork, and could be scrabbling for the last seat in a 3 seater.
  • Malcolm Noonan of the Greens in Carlow-Kilkenny, again looks like he could be in a dogfight with half a dozen other candidates for the last seat there
  • Stephen Donnelly, fall out from the Chilldrens hospital and Wicklow is going to lose a seat anyway
 
I am in Dublin Bay South where the sitting TDs are

Labour Ivana Bacik - elected in by election
Greens - Eamon Ryan - not standing again - Hazel Chu standing
FF - Jim O'Callaghan
SF - Chris Andrews

FG has no seat but is pretty much guaranteed to elect Geoghegan and possibly two FG TDs.

So one of the above will lose out and maybe 2.

Bacik is the only "Big" name.

Paddy Power says Bacik is safe. I wouldn't be sure.

 
I wonder what the odds would be for 3 party leaders to lose their seats, Cairns, Bacik and O'Gorman?
 
Have to take issue with how the electoral commission re arranged constituencies and broke up historic constituencies moving voters into another constituency that they never had connections to before. For example laois/offaly is a historic constituency going back to the founding of the state, why wasn't this changed to a 6 seater? There are countless examples of this throughout. I think most voters and candidates would prefer very minimal changes to constituencies even if it meant their vote carried less weight in a specific election. Who decided on what the terms of the electoral commission were given that any changes they made were likely to be profound?
 
joe sod said:
Who decided on what the terms of the electoral commission were given that any changes they made were likely to be profound?
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Profound for a very few people I'd imagine. The Commission just make recommendations based on the requirement to ensure even representation as set out in the Constitution. The government then debate and adopt or reject their recommendations as they see fit.
 
Peanuts20 said:
  • Stephen Donnelly, fall out from the Chilldrens hospital and Wicklow is going to lose a seat anyway
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I am not a FF supporter and always found Donnelly annoying but he has been a very effective minister. If he loses it will surely be on local issues rather than health?
 
its the main reason Labour are not running in Cork East as their (and the Sherlocks) heartland was ripped out of it and move to Cork NC which was bonkers.

I can't see 6 seaters becoming a thing but I could see Laois, Offaly becoming 2 3 seaters or the Graigcullen side of Laois (which is really part of Carlow town) being added to Carlow and that and Kilkenny then becoming 2 more 3 seaters
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Paddy Power says Bacik is safe. I wouldn't be sure.
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Bacik is safe. She has a good ground game and local/European vote was decent in Dublin.
Peanuts20 said:
Stephen Donnelly, fall out from the Chilldrens hospital and Wicklow is going to lose a seat anyway
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Five outgoing TDs and only four seats and an independent (Shay Cullen) in with a very good shout. It seems Donnelly’s ground presence is weak and he’ll only get in if FF have a good national vote.
 
I've seen talk of Catherine Martin (Greens) narrowly losing out in the new constituency of Dublin Rathdown. She topped the poll the last time!

Current favourites (according to the betting odds) to take the four seats are Neal Richmond (FG) Maeve O'Connell (FG) Shay Brennan (FF) and Michael Fleming (Ind). This line-up is also the one predicted by Ivan Yates on his 'Calling It' podcast on Newstalk.

They have Alan Shatter with little chance at under 10% but I think he could do a lot better than that.
 
Dr Strangelove said:
Donnelly not going to be back in Dáil Éireann, looks at about 0.4 of a quota.
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I'm not surprised that he's gone. He only just scraped in last time.

FF's vote share of first preference votes is actually very slightly down from the last election, from 22.2% to 21.9%.
FG's is exactly the same at 20.8%.
SF's is down significantly from 24.5% to 19%.

The big winners are the Social Democrats, Aontú and the Independents.

The biggest losers, by far, are the Greens.

The election is a reflection of there being no real alternative government and the current government not doing that bad of a job.
 
It's also a reflection of the fact that for all of SF's talk of "change" and trying to talk up the result as a change, the only change of note that occurred, aside from the Greens being hammered, is that almost 1 in 4 people who voted for SF the last time took their vote somewhere else this time.
 
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